Climate Change

Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy

Context: During the World Climate Action Summit of the 28th COP of UNFCCC, more than 20 countries from four continents launched the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy.

About Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy

  • This Declaration recognises the key role of nuclear energy in achieving global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 as increasing the share of nuclear energy is critical to reach the goal of limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times.
  • Signatory countries: USA, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Ghana, Hungary, Japan, South Korea, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, UAE, and UK.
  • India is not a signatory to this Declaration as India has taken a principled position not to join alliances outside the COP Process.
  • Countries party to the Declaration have committed to:
    • Work together to advance a global aspirational goal of tripling nuclear energy capacity from 2020 by 2050.
    • Take domestic actions to ensure nuclear power plants are operated responsibly and in line with highest standards of safety, sustainability, security and non-proliferation and responsible management of nuclear waste.
    • Mobilise investments in nuclear power, including through innovative financing mechanisms.
    • Encourage multilateral financial institutions to include nuclear energy in their energy lending policies.
    • Support development and construction of nuclear reactors, such as small modular and other advanced reactors for power generation and wider industrial applications for decarbonization, such as hydrogen and synthetic fuel production.
    • Promoting resilient supply chains, including of fuel, for safe and secure technologies used by nuclear power plants over their full life cycles.
    • Extending the lifetimes of nuclear power plants while ensuring highest standards of safety, sustainability, security, and non-proliferation.
    • Supporting responsible nations to explore new civil nuclear deployment under highest standards of safety, sustainability, security, and non-proliferation.
    • Encourage complementary commitments from private sector, NGOs, development banks and financial institutions.
  • Nuclear power currently provides about 10% of the world’s electricity, equivalent to about a quarter of all low-carbon electricity. World's total operational nuclear energy capacity stands at 370 GW which is installed in 31 countries. 

Importance of nuclear power for climate change

  • Nuclear power plants do not emit greenhouse gases. According to a recent study by IAEA, nuclear power generation has avoided nearly 70 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in the last 50 years. 
  • Contributes to monitoring climate change and tackling its impacts.
  • Second largest source of clean dispatchable baseload power which cannot be provided other renewable energy sources like Solar and Wind power.
  • They can provide continuous baseload power unlike other renewable sources like Solar and Wind Power which are inherently intermittent.
  • Currently global installed nuclear energy/power capacity stands at about 370 GW, providing about 10% of world's total electricity.
  • New nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors occupy a small land footprint and can be sited where needed.
  • Nuclear power can partner with renewable energy sources and have flexibilities that support decarbonisation beyond the power sector, including hard-to-abate sectors.
  • IAEA has been supporting Member States to include nuclear power in their national energy planning in a sustainable way and has launched 'Atoms4NetZero' initiative.

Atoms4NetZero Initiative

  • Atoms4Zero is an initiative of IAEA that supports efforts by member states to harness the power of nuclear energy in the transition to net-zero.
  • It provides Member States and stakeholders including industry, financial institutions and international organisations with technical expertise and scientific evidence on the potential of nuclear energy to decarbonize electricity production and hard-to-abate sectors such as industry and transport.

India's Nuclear Energy Capacity

  • India currently has 6780 MW of installed nuclear capacity and is constructing 8 new reactors, which will add 6800 MW of nuclear capacity. This will take total installed nuclear capacity in India to about 13600 MW.
  • India plans to grow its installed nuclear energy capacity to about 22 GW by 2032, which itself will lead to tripling of nuclear capacity.
  • However, according to estimates for India to reach its goal of net-zero by 2070, India will need to expand its nuclear power capacity by 100 times.
  • According to experts joining this initiative was critical for India as:
    • India is anyway planning to triple its installed nuclear power capacity by 2032.
    • Tripling nuclear energy capacity is essential for reaching the target of net-zero by 2070.
    • Being a part of this declaration would have allowed India to be part of nuclear supply chains and bolstered its claims for a permanent seat of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Climate Vulnerable Forum

Context: Former Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed has said that Indian companies must invest in clean energy projects in ‘climate vulnerable’ countries.

What is Climate vulnerable forum? 

  • The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) is an international partnership of countries highly vulnerable to a warming planet.
  • It is Composed of 58 members from Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Pacific. 
  • It serves as a South-South cooperation platform for participating governments to act together to deal with global climate change.
  • The Forum is led by a rotating chair for an ordinary period of two years.
  • Current chair:  Ghana for the period 2022-2024. (Ghana is the second African nation to lead the CVF after Ethiopia).

Establishment:

  • The CVF first met near Male’, Maldives in November 2009.
  • At the CVF High-Level Meeting held during the UNFCCC (COP21), the Manila-Paris Declaration and the 2016-2018 Roadmap of the CVF was adopted. 
  • At UNFCCC COP22 Forum members committed to ambitious climate action, striving, among others, to achieve maximal resilience and to meet 100% domestic renewable energy production as rapidly as possible.

Members:

African & West Asian region:

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Asian & Pacific region

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Latin America & Caribbean region

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  • The UNDP Multi-Partner Trust Fund Office is the Administrative Agent of the Climate Vulnerable Forum Trust Fund.
  • Four intergovernmental agencies are participating partners in the implementation of the CVF Trust Fund:
    • International Organisation for Migration (IOM)
    • United Nations Development Progamme (UNDP)
    • United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)
    • World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Global shield initiative:

Vulnerable Twenty Group (V20) together with the Group of Seven (G7) and other supporting countries launched the Global Shield against Climate Risks. The aim of the Global Shield is to provide and facilitate more and better pre-arranged protection against climate and disaster related risks for vulnerable people and countries. It was launched at COP 27, Sharm-el-sheikh.

China, U.S. and India absent at U.N.’s Climate Ambition Summit

Context : The Climate Ambition Summit (CAS) in New York, as part of the United Nations General Assembly, that concluded on September 21, was marked by the absence of major economies whose actions significantly influence the future of global emissions. China, United States and India — who collectively account for about 42% of global greenhouse gas emissions and are the top three emitters in that order — were all absent from the CAS.

What is Climate Ambition summit?

  • To accelerate action by governments, business, finance, local authorities and civil society, and hear from “first movers and doers,” the United Nations Secretary-General convened a Climate Ambition Summit at United Nations Headquarters in New York on 20 September 2023.
  • The Summit represents a critical political milestone for demonstrating that there is collective global will to accelerate the pace and scale of a just transition to a more equitable renewable-energy based, climate-resilient global economy.
  • The main goal is to keep the 1.5°C degree goal of the Paris Agreement alive and deliver climate justice to those on the front lines of the climate crisis.
  • In the run-up to the summit, about 100 heads of State had written to ramp up action to address the climate crisis. However, only representatives from 34 states and 7 institutions were given the floor on the day of the summit. 
  • The criteria for countries to be considered for a speaking slot at the summit were:
    • That they would be expected to present updated pre-2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (as agreed in Glasgow); 
    • Updated net-zero targets; 
    • Energy transition plans with commitments to no new coal, oil and gas; 
    • Fossil fuel phase-out plans; 
    • More ambitious renewable energy targets; 
    • Green Climate Fund pledges; 
    • Economy-wide plans on adaptation and resilience. 

India’s climate commitments:
India last updated its climate pledges in 2022 of reducing emissions intensity — or the volume of emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) — by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030, a 10% increase from what it agreed to in 2015.

The government committed to meet 50% of its electric power needs from renewable, non-fossil fuel energy sources — up from 40% committed at the Paris agreement. It assured to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3bn tonnes of CO2-equivalent [GtCO2e] through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. In 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to India achieving net zero by 2070. 

The scientific assessment is that India’s commitment, alongside similar commitment by G-20 economies are insufficient to keep temperatures from keeping below 2C by the end of the century. However, India’s low per capita emissions and contribution to the carbon already in the atmosphere has led other analysts to suggest that India has committed to “more than its fair share” to keeping to the Paris-agreed limits. 

Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

Context: A new study co-authored by a climate scientist Johan Rockstrom said that Earth is exceeding its safe operating space for humanity in six of nine key measurements of its health, and two of the remaining three are headed in the wrong direction.

The Study on Planetary Boundaries 

The study evaluates the health of the Earth using nine key measurements or boundaries that are critical for the well-being of humanity and the planet.

  • It proposes a new approach to global sustainability by defining planetary boundaries within which humanity can operate safely.
  • Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems.

Nine Planetary Boundaries 

The study identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, it proposes quantifications for seven of them. 

Nine Planetary Boundaries 
Earth System Process Limit Implication of Crossing the limit
Climate Change CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcingLoss of polar ice sheets. Regional climate disruptions. Loss of glacial freshwater supplies.Weakening of carbon sinks.
Ocean AcidificationMean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levelsConversion of coral reefs to algal-dominated systems. Regional elimination of some aragonite- and high- magnesium calcite-forming marine biota.Slow variable affecting marine carbon sink.
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion <5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson UnitsSevere and irreversible UV- B radiation affects human health and ecosystems.
Biogeo-Chemical Flows: interference with P and N cyclesLimit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1
Annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P		P: avoid a major oceanic anoxic event (including regional), with impacts on marine ecosystems.
N: slow variable affecting overall resilience of ecosystems via acidification of terrestrial ecosystems and eutrophication of coastal and freshwater systems.
Global Freshwater Use<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resourcesCould affect regional climate patterns (e.g., monsoon behavior).Primarily slow variable affecting moisture feedback, biomass production, carbon uptake by terrestrial systems and reducing biodiversity
Land System Change<15% of the ice-free land surface under croplandTrigger of irreversible and widespread conversion of biomes to undesired states.Primarily acts as a slow variable affecting carbon storage and resilience via changes in biodiversity and landscape heterogeneity
Rate of Biodiversity LossAnnual rate of <10 extinctions per million speciesSlow variable affecting ecosystem functioning at continental and ocean basin scales.Impact on many other boundaries—C storage, freshwater, N and P cycles, land systems.Massive loss of biodiversity unacceptable for ethical reasons.
Chemical Pollution To be determinedThresholds leading to unacceptable impacts on human health and ecosystem functioning possible but largely unknown.May act as a slow variable undermining resilience and increase risk of crossing other thresholds
Atmospheric Aerosol LoadingTo be determined Disruption of monsoon systems.
Human-health effects. Interacts with climate change and freshwater boundaries.

Properties of Proposed Planetary Boundaries 

  • Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. 
  • The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social–ecological resilience of the affected societies. 
  • The proposed concept of “planetary boundaries” aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. 
  • Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.

New Findings on the Planetary Boundaries 

  • Unsafe in Six Areas: According to the study, Earth is exceeding its "safe operating space for humanity" in six out of these nine measurements.
    • These areas include climate, biodiversity, land use, freshwater resources, nutrient pollution, and the presence of "novel" chemicals (human-made compounds like microplastics and nuclear waste).
  • Safe in Three Areas (for now): Only three of the nine measurements are currently within the boundaries considered safe.
    • These areas are the acidity of the oceans, the health of the air, and the state of the ozone layer.
  • Negative Trends:
    • The study also indicates that even in the areas considered "safe," namely the oceans and air quality, there are negative trends. 
    • Ocean and air pollution are on the rise, which is a cause for concern.
  • Updating the Boundaries:
    • The study is an update from 2015 and introduced a new factor - water quality - to the list of unsafe measurements. 
    • This change was based on worsening river run-off and improved measurements and understanding of the issue.
  • Global Significance:
    • The researchers emphasize that these nine factors are critical determinants of the planet's fate.
    • Their findings underscore the urgent need for global action to address environmental and ecological challenges.
  • Expert Consensus: The boundaries used in the study are described as "scientifically well established" and have been supported by various outside studies and research.

Cyclone frequency may rise over Indian coast from the warming of Pacific

Context: A combination of global warming and a cyclical event called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that repeats every 20-30 years, could make cyclones that originate near the Equator more frequent in the coming years.

What the study says?

  • In recent times, equatorial cyclones originating near the Equator have exhibited an unexpected trend of moderation. The most significant recent occurrence of such a cyclone was the 2017 Cyclone Okchi, which brought widespread destruction to regions including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Sri Lanka.
  • A convergence of factors, namely global warming and the cyclic phenomenon termed the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which operates on a 20-30-year cycle, suggests a potential elevation in the frequency of these cyclones in the years ahead.
  • Between 1981 and 2010, equatorial-origin cyclones occurred at a strikingly lower rate of 43% compared to the period spanning 1951 to 1980. This decline aligns with the PDO's 'warmer' or positive phase.
    • A warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific, known as El Nino, often corresponds to decreased rainfall over India.
    • Conversely, cooler-than-normal temperatures, referred to as La Nina, are associated with heightened rainfall.
    • The interplay of these phenomena, collectively known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), recurs in the Pacific every two to seven years.
    • In contrast, the PDO follows a non-annual cycle and, over considerably longer timescales, results in warmer conditions in the Western Pacific Ocean and relatively cooler conditions in the Eastern Pacific.
    • Identifying a 'positive' or 'warmer phase' of PDO necessitates years of observing ocean temperatures and their interaction with the atmosphere.
    • Notably, in 2019, the PDO transitioned into a cooler, negative phase. If this state persists, it could potentially lead to an increase in the number of equatorial-origin tropical cyclones during the post-monsoon months.
  • Currently, an emerging El Nino event is evident in the Pacific, with its effects already manifesting in central and southern India, where rainfall deficits of 7% and 17% have been observed. 
  • While a positive PDO combined with ENSO typically yields unfavourable outcomes, a negative PDO coupled with the same phenomenon results in increased rainfall for India.

Important Terms: 

  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): A recurring climatic cycle manifesting every 20-30 years in the Pacific Ocean. It results in fluctuations in sea surface temperatures. When in a positive phase, it is associated with warmer waters in the western Pacific and cooler waters in the eastern Pacific. This phenomenon significantly influences global climate dynamics and weather patterns.
  • El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A recurrent climate phenomenon observed in the Pacific Ocean, characterized by two primary states—El Nino (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) and La Nina (cooler-than-normal temperatures). ENSO holds considerable sway over worldwide weather patterns, with implications for temperature and precipitation distributions.
  • Equatorial Cyclones: Cyclones originating in proximity to the Equator. Fuelled by warm waters and abundant moisture, these cyclones typically form at a distance from the Equator due to the Coriolis effect. Although infrequent, they can be exceptionally intense and cause significant damage.
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What is Tropical Cyclone?

  • A tropical cyclone is a weather phenomenon characterized by a region of low atmospheric pressure that originates over warm tropical waters and subsequently advances towards coastal regions, unleashing powerful winds, intense rainfall, and storm surges.
  • The rotational direction of the winds within a tropical cyclone follows a distinctive pattern: counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This rotation is a consequence of the Coriolis effect, which influences the motion of air masses in relation to the Earth's rotation.

Critical conditions contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones:

  • Sea Temperature: The presence of an expansive sea surface with a temperature exceeding 27°C serves as a conducive environment for the genesis of tropical cyclones. Warm ocean waters provide the necessary energy for these systems to gather strength.
  • Geographical Location: Tropical cyclones tend to develop within specific geographical boundaries, specifically between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. These areas offer optimal temperature conditions for their formation.
  • Coriolis Force: A crucial requirement for tropical cyclone formation is the presence of the Coriolis force, a result of the Earth's rotation. Consequently, these cyclones do not form near the equator but rather at latitudes where the Coriolis effect is sufficient to induce rotation.
  • Vertical Wind Speed: The presence of relatively stable vertical wind speeds, with minimal fluctuations, aids in the organization of a tropical cyclone's structure. This consistency facilitates the development and maintenance of the cyclonic circulation.
  • Upper Divergence: Successful tropical cyclone development necessitates a well-established upper-level divergence within the atmosphere. This divergence ensures the continual removal of rising air currents from within the cyclone, maintaining low pressure at its centre.
  • High Humidity: Adequate humidity levels, typically ranging between 50 to 60 percent, are essential in the mid-troposphere. This humidity is fundamental for the formation of towering cumulonimbus clouds, a significant component of tropical cyclones.

Influence of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Formation

  • Temperature Shifts: The temperature of both the ocean and the atmosphere plays a crucial role in the creation of tropical cyclones. As the climate warms, these storms gather strength by harnessing the energy released when evaporated ocean water condenses into rainfall within the cyclone.
  • Warmer Ocean Impact: The escalation in temperature leads to a warmer ocean, elevating evaporation rates. This, in turn, augments the moisture content in the atmosphere, intensifying the availability of water vapor.
  • Enhanced Rainfall: The rising temperature enables the atmosphere to retain more moisture, thereby increasing rainfall. The amplified rainfall not only releases more heat but also contributes to bolstering wind intensity.
  • Heightened Rainfall Rates: Recent investigations reveal a 7% surge in hurricane rainfall rates per degree of warming, underscoring the pronounced impact of rising temperatures on precipitation.
  • Storm Intensification: The warming climate is poised to elevate wind velocities, leading to a higher frequency of powerful Category 4 and 5 storms, with their potential for devastating impact.
  • Sea Level Rise Influence: Climatic warming elevates sea levels, augmenting the height of ocean water. This elevated water level permits storm surges to penetrate further inland.
  • Impact of Storm Slowing: The velocity of a storm significantly influences the cumulative rainfall in a given area. Slower-moving storms grant additional time for rainfall accumulation, heightening the potential for flooding.
  • Complex Storm Speed Changes: While studies indicate a reduction in storm speed, the underlying mechanisms behind this trend remain elusive.
  • Confluence of Storms: Within an increasingly warmer world, the merging of two significant tropical storms over global oceans could lead to the formation of extremely powerful mega cyclones.

Climate breakdown: the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free by the 2030s

Context: The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion of a new study in Nature Communications.

Over the past 30 years, the Arctic has warmed at roughly twice the rate as the entire globe, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Most scientists agree that this rapid warming is a signal of human-caused climate change.

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This map shows trends in mean surface air temperature over the period 1960 to 2019. Notice that the Arctic is red, indicating that the trend over this 60-year period is for an increase in air temperature of nearly 4° C (7.2° F) across much of the Arctic, which is larger than for other parts of the globe.

Multiyear ice:

The ice which remains at the end of summer is called multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart. It acts as barrier to the transfer of both moisture and heat between the ocean and atmosphere. Over the past 40 years this multiyear sea ice has shrunk from around 7 million sq. km to 4 million.

Blue ocean event:

“Blue ocean event” is defined as when the sea ice area drops below 1 million sq. km. This threshold is used mainly because older, thicker ice along parts of Canada and northern Greenland is expected to remain long after the rest of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. We can’t put an exact date on the last blue ocean event, but one in the near future would likely mean open water at the North Pole for the first time in thousands of years.

Reasons behind Arctic Amplification: 

Change in Albedo:

  • When bright and reflective ice (with more albedo) melts, it gives way to a darker ocean (lowering albedo); this amplifies the warming trend because the ocean surface absorbs more heat from the Sun than the surface of snow and ice.

Changing Ocean currents:

  • Currents are changing because more melting ice is injecting the Arctic Ocean with freshwater. The missing ice also exposes the surface waters to more wind. This mixes up colder freshwater at the surface and warmer saltwater below, raising surface temperatures and further melting ice.

Changing Weather

  • Ocean currents drive the powerful polar jet stream, which moves hot and cold air masses around the Northern Hemisphere. This is a product of the temperature differences between the Arctic and the tropics.
  • But as the Arctic warms, the jet stream now undulates wildly north and south. This has been injecting the Arctic with warm air.
  • The abundance of thunderstorms in tropics creates a near-constant flow of heat away from the tropics towards the Arctic.

Change in nature of Ice Cover

  • Quality of ice cover in the Arctic region is changing. New ice is replacing old ice. 
  • Old ice is more resilient than new ice, which melts faster. New ice contains more salty water and is more subject to melting, whereas old ice has a higher share of water coming from snow precipitations and is a source of freshwater. 

Impacts of Arctic Melting:

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  • Coastal erosion: Over the Arctic Ocean, sea ice absorbs the impacts of waves and limits shoreline wave erosion. As sea ice retreats farther away from surrounding landmasses, late-summer and autumn storms stir up strong waves that crash onto shore.
  • Increase in sea level: Increased wave action caused due to sea ice melt can bend the ice shelves increasing the possibility of glacial retreat. Glaciers that have lost their ice fronts tend to flow faster, and because this process introduces a body of ice into the ocean that was not there previously, it raises sea level which further can lead to coastal flooding. 
  • Global warming: Sea ice loss leads to increased permafrost thaw, which drives the release of carbon dioxide and methane—an even more potent greenhouse gas. The retreat of sea ice exposes greater expanses of darker ocean water, which absorbs more solar radiation than white sea ice, perpetuating the global warming effect.
  • Alteration of ocean current: Massive amounts of very cold glacial-melt water entering warmer ocean waters reduces the thermal contrast between cold and warm waters. It further alters the density differences also thereby leading to slowing down of ocean currents. 
  • Changes in weather systems: accelerating sea ice melt could be linked to the intensification of Central Pacific trade winds, the emergence of El Niño events, and a weakening of the North Pacific Aleutian Low Circulation — a semi-permanent low pressure system that drives post-tropical cyclones and generates strong storms.
  • Loss of biodiversity: Arctic melting is disrupting the behavior of marine mammals and ice-obligate species including polar bears, walruses, and bearded and ringed seals. Restructured food webs, changes in prey populations, the arrival of new marine mammal species (including new predators and competitors), and pathogens from more temperate seas will challenge Arctic species. 
  • Higher human interference: The loss of Arctic Sea ice could open up new regions to shipping, tourism, and oil extraction. More people living, working, and extracting resources in the Arctic will likely require more infrastructure, and may raise the risk of emergencies needing cleanup or rescue.

Global Stocktake

Context: Climate diplomats from around the world are currently meeting in Bonn to lay the ground for the UNFCCC’s COP 28 in Dubai. This year’s conference has added significance because climate scientists have begun work on a critical mandate of the Paris Pact, known as the Global Stocktake.

Global Stocktake - Thematic areas of the GST

About Global Stocktake:

  • The Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake process is designed to assess the global response to the climate crisis every five years.
  • It evaluates the world's progress in slashing greenhouse gas emissions, building resilience to climate impacts, and securing finance and support to address the climate crisis.
  • It serves as a global accelerator, driving nations to step up their climate action and pursue the transformational change needed to secure a zero-carbon, climate-resilient, and equitable future.
  • The first global stocktake will happen by the end of the UN climate summit in December 2023 (COP28) in Dubai.
  • Countries must then agree on how they will leverage their findings to keep the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C alive and address the impacts of climate change.

Purpose of Global Stocktake: 

  • Established under Article 14 of the Paris Agreement towards achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement and its long-term goals.
  • Those goals include
    • Cutting greenhouse gas emissions to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and ideally 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F);
    • Building resilience to climate impacts; and 
    • Aligning financial support with the scale and scope needed to tackle the climate crisis.
  • It is intended to evaluate progress on climate action at the global level, not the national level.
  • In the Paris Agreement, Parties agreed that the Stocktake should inform countries in updating and enhancing their climate actions and support, and in enhancing international cooperation for climate action.
  • It should also inform countries about new climate plans (known as “nationally determined contributions,” or NDCs) which will be fully updated next in 2025.

Thematic areas of Global Stocktake

  • At COP24 in Katowice, Poland in 2018, countries agreed that the Global Stocktake would address climate progress in three key areas:
    • Mitigation: Evaluating global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep global temperature rise below 2 degrees.
    • Adaptation: Measuring progress in countries abilities to enhance their resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate impacts.
  • Means of implementation, including finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.
  • Loss and damage helping assess the actions and support needed to respond to climate impacts beyond what communities and ecosystems can adapt to. 
  • It also considers the unintended social and economic consequences that may arise from climate action and implementation, known as response measures. 
  • It is also intended to emphasise the importance of promoting equity and leveraging the best available science to inform strategies for tackling the climate crisis.

Significance of Global Stocktake

  • The Global Stocktake is meant to be a participatory process that is open, inclusive and transparent, as countries agreed at COP24. 
  • Taking place over the course of two years, the Global Stocktake begins with data collection and technical assessment phases and culminates with a high-level political phase. 

WMO Annual Update: Projections for Next Decade's Temperature Trends

Context: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released its yearly update on its forecasts for temperature trends over the following ten years.

Key points

  • The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is likely to be 1.1°-1.8°C higher than the average from 1850-1900. 
  • There is a 66% chance that the global near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in at least one year before 2027 though it is unlikely that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold. 
  • At least one of the years, from 2023 to 2027 will be the hottest on record — exceeding the 14.84°C reported in 2016 (it was about 0.07°C warmer than the previous record set in 2015). 
  • The five-year mean for 2023-2027 was very likely to be higher than that in the last five years (2018-2022). 
  •  The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to be positive in December to February 2023-24, meaning that the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to be at least half a degree, more likely over a degree above what is normal.
  • Hotter oceans also mean stronger cyclones. For Example- Cyclone Mocha, which barrelled through Myanmar this week and claimed at least 60 lives and wrought severe damage.

Forecast for  India

  • The WMO update does not have specific inputs for India; however, the overall trend in indicators suggests that India, dependent as it is on rain-fed agriculture and with its long coastline, will be severely tested due to changes in the global climate. 
  • India’s abilities at forecasting cyclones and weather anomalies have improved but developing resilience is far more challenging. Greater investments in bolstering disaster-related infrastructure are the need of the hour.

 Paris Agreement 

  • The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, in 2015.

Important Provisions of Paris Agreement 

  • Long-term temperature goal (Art. 2) – limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.
  • Mitigation (Art. 4) – The Paris Agreement establishes binding commitments by all Parties to prepare, communicate and maintain a nationally determined contribution (NDC) and to pursue domestic measures to achieve them.
  • It also prescribes that Parties shall communicate their NDCs every 5 years and provide information necessary for clarity and transparency.
  •  Finance, technology and capacity-building support (Art. 9, 10 and 11) – The Paris Agreement reaffirms the obligations of developed countries to support the efforts of developing country Parties to build clean, climate resilient futures, while for the first time encouraging voluntary contributions by other Parties. 

Global Stocktake (Art. 14) – A “global stocktake”, to take place in 2023 and every 5 years thereafter, will assess collective progress toward achieving the purpose of the Agreement in a comprehensive and facilitative manner.

World Metrological Organisation

  • WMO is a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) with 193 Member States and Territories. 
  • Its mandate is in the areas of meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences. 
  • The Secretariat, headquartered in Geneva, is headed by the Secretary General.
  • India is a member of WMO. It has been the member since 1949 
  • WMO reports 
  • Green House Gas Bulletin 
  • Status of World Climate

Focus on Methane emissions at COP-28

Context: Speaking at the inaugural UAE Climate Tech summit,  COP28 President Designate Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber called upon the oil and gas industry to phase out methane emissions by 2030 and align in favour of comprehensive net-zero emission plans by or before 2050.

COP28, or the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference is scheduled to be held between November 30 and December 12 in the UAE.

Methane & Climate Change

  • Methane is the second most abundant anthropogenic GHG after carbon dioxide (CO2), accounting for about 20 percent of global emissions.
  • It is emitted from a variety of anthropogenic and natural sources.
  • Anthropogenic emission sources include landfills, oil and natural gas systems, agricultural activities, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment, and certain industrial processes.
  • Methane emissions are among the top causes of global warming and according to Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), fossil fuel operations generate over one-third of all methane emissions from human activity. Thus, action on methane is seen as one of the most effective measures the energy sector can take to mitigate climate change.
  • It is a hydrocarbon that is a primary component of natural gas.
Methane hydrates is a frozen methane locked inside the microscopic cages composed of water molecules. They are found in continental slopes where pressure is high and temperature is low. India’s coastal region is rich in Methane Hydrates.
Methane

Initiatives

International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO)

  • The International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO) was launched at the G20 Summit, on the eve of the COP26 UN climate conference in Glasgow.
  • It is a data-driven, action-focused initiative by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) with support from the European Commission to catalyse dramatic reduction of methane emissions, for achieving Paris agreement goals.
  • An Eye on Methane (2021) is the report by International Methane Emissions Observatory 2021
  • IMEO will initially focus on methane emissions from the fossil fuel sector, and then expand to other major emitting sectors like agriculture and waste.
  • This will allow IMEO to engage companies and governments around the world to utilize this data to target strategic mitigation actions and support
  • science-based policy options.
  • IMEO will provide the means to prioritize actions and monitor commitments made by state actors in the Global Methane Pledge (Launched at Glasgow, COP26) – a US and EU-led effort by over thirty countries to slash methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030. 
  • India has not signed up for the pledge.

Global Methane Initiative

  • It is an international public private partnership focused on reducing barriers to the recovery and use of methane as a valuable energy source.
  • GMI provides technical support to deploy methane to energy projects around the world that enable Partner Countries to launch methane recovery and use projects. 
  • GMI advances methane mitigation in 3 key sectors: Oil & Gas, Biogas (including agriculture, municipal solid waste, and wastewater) and Coal Mines.
  • Methane emissions from Oil & Gas Sector: Methane emissions from oil and natural gas systems result from both normal operations and system disruptions. These emissions can be cost-effectively reduced by upgrading technologies or equipment, and by improving operations.
  • Methane emissions from Biogas Sector: Biogas produced from the anaerobic digestion of organic material or emitted directly from landfills can be treated to create pipeline-quality natural gas, used as a cooking fuel, used to generate electricity, and captured on-site to provide heat and power.
  • Methane emissions from Coal Mines Sector: Removing fugitive methane gas from underground coal mines and using it in profitable and practical ways can improve worker safety, enhance mine productivity, increase revenues, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Membership: GMI Partner Countries account for approximately 70% of global manmade methane emissions. India is a member of this organisation.

Through these efforts, GMI aims to:

a. Decreasing greenhouse gas emissions

b. Improving human health

c. Increasing worker safety

d. Improving air and water quality

e. Enhancing energy security

f. Expanding economic growth

Global Methane Assessment

  • The assessment was launched by Climate & Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) together with UNEP.

Key findings:

  • Europe has greatest potential to curb methane emissions from farming, fossil fuel operations & waste management.
  • India has greatest potential to reduce methane emissions in the waste sector.
  • China’s mitigation potential is best in coal production and livestock.
  • Africa’s mitigation potential is in livestock, followed by oil and gas.
  • Methane in the atmosphere reached record levels in 2020, which is a cause of concern as it is an extremely powerful GHG and is responsible for about 30 per cent of warming since pre-industrial times. 
  • However, carbon dioxide levels have dropped during the Covid-19 pandemic due to the lockdowns and travel restrictions.

Why the recent rain is no relief?

Context: The first two days of May have been unusually wet. Except the north eastern states, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, the entire country has received plenty of rain, with some areas in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh getting as much as 10 to 15 times the expected rainfall. This exceptional spell of rainfall was the result of a number of relatively local weather phenomena over different parts of the country coming together at the same time.

Several reports, including carbon brief, have confirmed that globally, the month of March this year was the second warmest March ever since the beginning of records in the mid-1800s. The year 2023 was shaping up to become one of the top four warmest years on record, citing the rapid development of the El Nino event, which has an overall warming impact on the planet. 

How Global warming and Climate change are affecting India?

Temperature and rainfall, both are getting impacted and have regional variations:

Changes in Temperatures:

  • According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences average annual mean temperatures in India had risen by about 0.7 degree Celsius from 1900 which is significantly less than the global rise in temperatures, which has exceeded 1 degree Celsius for several years now.
  • India is likely to warm in the range of 2.4 to 4.4 degree Celsius from the current levels by the end of the scenario.
  • Tropical Indian oceans: Sea surface temperatures have risen by almost 1 degree Celsius between 1950 and 2015.
  • The warming over India is not uniform across regions:
    • Himachal, Goa and Kerala : Temperatures have increased at the rate of more than 1 degree Celsius.
    • North Eastern states: Temperatures have climbed at the rate of more than 0.7 degree Celsius.
    • Eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha: have experienced the least warming. 
  • Goa has seen the maximum increasing trend in annual rainfall. Its rainfall has increased at the rate of 21 mm over a 100 year period.
  • Sikkim: The year 2022 was the warmest year.
  • Karnataka and Telangana: were cooler than normal in 2022, though only marginally. 

Changes in rainfall:

  • Monsoon rainfall in India has been surplus by around 7% this year though with extreme inequity. 
  • Central and southern India saw a sharp surge in rainfall. Rains in Central India were surplus by 20% and in southern India by 25%, with the last month seeing several instances of flooding in Kerala, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. 
  • On the other hand, large parts of U. P., Bihar, Odisha have seen large deficits. 
  • The east and northeast of India have reported a 17% shortfall.
  • The northwest part has seen 2% shortfall. 
  • Overall monsoon has remained within the normal range of long period average.

Note: These data can be used by the students while analysing the impact of climate change over India. Analysis must be quantitative as well as qualitative. Here quantitative aspects have been provided. 

Great Nicobar Island project

Context: The eastern bench of the National Green Tribunal (NGT) has ordered a stay on the ₹72,000 crore Great Nicobar Island project and constituted a committee to revisit the environmental clearance granted by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC).

About the Great Nicobar Island Project

  • The Great Nicobar Island (GNI) Project is a mega project to be implemented at the southern end of the Andaman and Nicobar islands. 
  • The project will include, among others, an International Container Transhipment Terminal (ICTT), a Greenfield international airport, a township, and a 450 MVA gas- and solar-based power plant over 16,610 hectares in the Great Nicobar Islands.

Impacts: 

  • Tectonic Volatility: The GNI lies between the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea in a tectonically sensitive zone.
  • “Important Marine Turtle Habitats in India”: 
    • In February 2021, India’s National Marine Turtle Action Plan mentioned Galathea Bay on the south-eastern coast of the Great Nicobar Island as one of the “Important Marine Turtle Habitats in India”. 
    • Beaches on either side of the Galathea River are the most important nesting sites in the northern Indian Ocean for the Leatherback turtle, the world’s largest marine turtle. 
    • The Action Plan says that coastal development projects, including the construction of ports, jetties, resorts, and industries, are major threats to turtle populations.
  • Impact on tree cover:
    • The loss of tree cover will not only affect the flora and fauna on the island, it will also lead to increased runoff and sediment deposits in the ocean, impacting the coral reefs in the area. 
  • Destruction of Tribal land:
    • GNI is designated as a tribal reserve under the Andaman and Nicobar Protection of Aboriginal Tribes Regulation, 1956. 
    • The Island has been home to two isolated and indigenous tribes — the Shompen and the Nicobaris — for thousands of years.
  • UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere Programme in 2013: 
    • The GNI was declared a biosphere reserve in 1989 and included in UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere Programme in 2013. 
    • It has an unparalleled array of microhabitats- sandy and rocky beaches, bays and lagoons, littoral patches with mangrove communities, evergreen and tropical forests, and more. 
    • These habitats host numerous species, including marine animals, reptiles, birds, mammals, trees, ferns, insects, crustaceans, and amphibians. 
    • Several of these, like the Nicobari Megapode, are endemic to GNI and found nowhere else in the world.

  • Concerns Against the Project
    •  Shompen people will be displaced leading to their total marginalisation.
    •  Endemic flora and fauna will be displaced.
    •  Diversion of forests and coastal development not allowed under
    •  Tribals have not been adequately consulted.

  • Rationale for the project
    •  Countering China’s increasing presence in the Indian Ocean Region
    •  Curb the stealing of marine resources by poachers from Myanmar
    •  Bridge infrastructure gaps in the region,
    •  Promote international trade by allowing the port to provide an alternative to Singapore ports.
image 3

About Great Nicobar: 

  • Great Nicobar, the southernmost of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has an area of 910 sq km. 
  • The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are a cluster of about 836 islands in the eastern Bay of Bengal, the two groups of which are separated by the 150-km wide Ten Degree Channel. 
  • The Andaman Islands lie to the north of the channel, and the Nicobar Islands to the south.
  • Indira Point on the southern tip of Great Nicobar Island is India’s southernmost point, less than 150 km from the northernmost island of the Indonesian archipelago.
  • The island comprises of unique and threatened tropical evergreen forest ecosystems. 
  • The region is noted for its rich biodiversity and fosters several rare and endemic species.
    • The endemic species comprise of 11 species of mammals, 32 species of birds, 7 species of reptiles and 4 species of amphibians. 
    • Of these, the well-known Crab-eating Macaque, Nicobar Tree Shrew, Nicobar Megapode, are endemic and/or endangered.
    • It is home to 650 species of angiosperms, ferns, gymnosperms, bryophytes, among others. 
  • One of the most unique aspects of Great Nicobar is the southernmost point, the Galathea Bay, a nesting ground for the Leatherback Turtle.
  • The primary human inhabitants of the island are the Shompen and Nicobarese tribes who have been living on the island for countless generations.
    • The Shompen tribe are an aboriginal people of about 200 to 300 members who inhabit the interiors of Great Nicobar. 
    • This particularly vulnerable tribal group (PVTG) is a semi-nomadic hunter-gatherer community, practicing basic horticulture and pig rearing, who probably migrated around 10,000 years ago.
    • They are a unique group, anthropologically completely distinct from the other PVTGs of the Andaman Island as well as from the Nicobarese. 
    • Their language, Shompanese, unrelated to any other existing language, seems to have adopted a few words from Nicobarese in the context of an existing, even if very limited, barter system between the two communities.

All eyes on monsoon as cooler summer delays crucial pattern

Context: The large parts of country have logged temperatures that are up to 10°C lower than normal due to rains. An uncharacteristically cooler start to the summer, which is likely to persist for a few more weeks in several parts of the country, may hurt the arrival of the crucial monsoon season, weather scientists have said, at a time when the rainy season is expected to anyway be sapped by the Pacific warming phenomenon El Nino.

How lower temperatures are going to affect monsoon?

  • Relative thermal differences create pressure differences which play very significant role in the onset of monsoon. 
  • More heating over northwest India helps with the onset of monsoon. When the ground heats up, especially in heatwave prone parts of northwest India (which includes Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi), it creates an area of low pressure. There is something called the heat low which forms over northwest India.
  • Hence low temperatures over NW part will lower the advance of monsoonal winds. 

What is heat low? What are its impacts on monsoon rainfall? 

  • During the northward march of sun in northern hemisphere, the continent surrounding the Arabian Sea begin to receive large amounts of heat; not only in the form of radiation from sun, but also flux of heat from the earth’s surface into atmosphere. 
  • As a result of this large input of power, trough of low pressure forms over this region. 
  • Intense heat low acts as suction devise for moist air along the monsoon trough and to some extend related to good monsoon over India. 
  • During weak heat low monsoon rainfall over India is greatly affected and results in deficient or scanty rainfall over vast area of country.
image 1

What is the role of monsoon trough? 

  • Monsoon Trough is an elongated low-pressure area which extends from heat low over Pakistan to Head Bay of Bengal. 
  • This is one of semi-permanent feature of monsoon circulation. 
  • Monsoon trough may be a characteristic of east west orientation of Himalayan ranges and north south orientation of Khasi-Jaintia Hills. 
  • Generally eastern side of monsoon trough oscillates, sometimes southwards and sometimes northwards.
Shifting positions of monsoon troughImpacts on distribution of rainfall across India
image3• When we say that the trough is in normal position, that means it passes through Ganganagar, Allahabad, Calcutta and Head Bay.

• This gives good rain to Central India.

• As a effect of low formation and it’s passage along the trough, the strong wind currents form over the west coast.

• These currents are blocked by Sahyadri mountains resulting in formation of offshore trough.

• Hence due to this offshore trough west of coast of India receives good rain.
image2• When the trough shifts to the south of it’s normal position, than the monsoon conditions are active giving excessive rainfall in central India and over the west coast of India due to offshore trough.

• This position is best for monsoon condition giving rain to all over Peninsular India.
image4• When the trough shifts to north of normal position it means that it shift to foothills of Himalayas giving good rain to Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and to all Northeast states of India.

• This condition is known as “Break Monsoon” where rainfall activity over rest of India ceases.