Context: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released its yearly update on its forecasts for temperature trends over the following ten years.
Key points
- The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is likely to be 1.1°-1.8°C higher than the average from 1850-1900.
- There is a 66% chance that the global near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in at least one year before 2027 though it is unlikely that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold.
- At least one of the years, from 2023 to 2027 will be the hottest on record — exceeding the 14.84°C reported in 2016 (it was about 0.07°C warmer than the previous record set in 2015).
- The five-year mean for 2023-2027 was very likely to be higher than that in the last five years (2018-2022).
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to be positive in December to February 2023-24, meaning that the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to be at least half a degree, more likely over a degree above what is normal.
- Hotter oceans also mean stronger cyclones. For Example- Cyclone Mocha, which barrelled through Myanmar this week and claimed at least 60 lives and wrought severe damage.
Forecast for India
- The WMO update does not have specific inputs for India; however, the overall trend in indicators suggests that India, dependent as it is on rain-fed agriculture and with its long coastline, will be severely tested due to changes in the global climate.
- India’s abilities at forecasting cyclones and weather anomalies have improved but developing resilience is far more challenging. Greater investments in bolstering disaster-related infrastructure are the need of the hour.
Paris Agreement
- The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, in 2015.
Important Provisions of Paris Agreement
- Long-term temperature goal (Art. 2) – limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.
- Mitigation (Art. 4) – The Paris Agreement establishes binding commitments by all Parties to prepare, communicate and maintain a nationally determined contribution (NDC) and to pursue domestic measures to achieve them.
- It also prescribes that Parties shall communicate their NDCs every 5 years and provide information necessary for clarity and transparency.
- Finance, technology and capacity-building support (Art. 9, 10 and 11) – The Paris Agreement reaffirms the obligations of developed countries to support the efforts of developing country Parties to build clean, climate resilient futures, while for the first time encouraging voluntary contributions by other Parties.
Global Stocktake (Art. 14) – A “global stocktake”, to take place in 2023 and every 5 years thereafter, will assess collective progress toward achieving the purpose of the Agreement in a comprehensive and facilitative manner.
World Metrological Organisation
- WMO is a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) with 193 Member States and Territories.
- Its mandate is in the areas of meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.
- The Secretariat, headquartered in Geneva, is headed by the Secretary General.
- India is a member of WMO. It has been the member since 1949
- WMO reports
- Green House Gas Bulletin
- Status of World Climate
