International Relations & Security

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Trump’s Gaza Plan and Role of Saudi Arabia

Context: US President Donald Trump's plan to depopulate Gaza and the crucial role of Saudi Arabia is likely to expand the geopolitical nuances in the Middle-East region.

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Implication of Gaza plan on the region and on India. 

About Trump’s Gaza plan: 

  • Depopulation of the region: Trump has proposed to relocate the residents of Gaza to Egypt and Jordan to redraw the demography from scratch.
  • Tourist hub: The Plan includes the development of Gaza as the ‘riviera of the world’ by redeveloping the infrastructure of the region as the tourist hub for the globe.
  • Gaining critical position in IMEC: The US by this plan will gain a critical geographical position in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic corridor to foster the trade and diplomatic relations.
  • Consolidating position: The plan is likely to enhance the US presence in the region and will help the US in leveraging the control over the regional powers like Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran. 
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Possible geopolitical reconfiguration in the West Asia with Plan

  • Promoting Israel’s invincibility: The possible plan is likely to reiterate the idea of invincibility of Israel in the region.
  • Projecting weak Iran’s influence: The plan will reduce Iran's influence in the region and will reduce the ability of Iran to revive its alliances like Hezbollah and Hamas in the region, giving it a strategic setback.
  • Siphoning off the Two-State idea: The two-state solution, often given with regard to Israel and Palestine, will be discarded if the plan gets acceptance from the regional powers like Saudi Arabia.

Role of Saudi Arabia in Expanding the Canvas

  • Gaining legitimacy: Saudi Arabia as the crucial Islamic power in the region can help in providing legitimacy to the plan by normalising ties with Israel.
    • Saudi Arabia might follow in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain which signed Abraham Accords in 2020 and normalised ties with Israel. 
  • Projected as leader: Saudi Arabia’s projection as the leader of the Arab and Islamic world making it a central actor in regional diplomacy.
  • Oil market stabiliser: The war-led inflation requires stability in the oil market. Saudi can help in achieving this by boosting oil supply in the market by increasing the production of the oil.
    • Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill” energy policy pushes Saudi away from its traditional policy of cutting oil production, and promotes oil production to lower oil prices in the global market. 
  • Key link between the US and China: Saudi Arabia has been shifting from the exclusive US ally to a more diversified strategy, engaging with China and Russia. Therefore, Saudi Arabia can become a key link for the negotiations between China and the US.
    • Vision 2030 of Saudi Arabia is channelising investment from both the US and China. 
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Constraints in Saudi Arabia Role fulfillment

  • Regional instability: Saudi Arabia itself is plagued from the regional instability due to the Kurd and Yemen rebellion, diverting the resources away from the larger goal.
  • Forces policy inversion: Saudi is planning to sway away from the oil led economy to a multi-dimensional sustainable economy under Vision 2030 plan. But, the US energy policy of “Drill, baby, drill” is obstructing the climate change and sustainable economy targets of Saudi Arabia.
  • Economic loss: The US policy to encourage Saudi to increase oil production in the global market will likely impact Saudi Arabia’s economic and profit prospects negatively. 

Impacts on India

  • Diplomatic challenge: The situation of new plans and long term humanitarian challenges in the region will pose a tug-of-war challenge to Indian diplomacy. It will be tough to balance humanitarian interests and cordial relations with the US & Israel.
  • Pressure from US: The possible oil price cuts by Saudi interventions will make India susceptible to the pressure from the US to cut the Russian oil imports. This may lead to the challenge in balancing relations with Russia.
  • Halting investments: There is a risk of halt on the investments of India in Iran because of the direct involvement and tangible partnership of the US in IMEC through Gaza. This will invite pressure to suspend the infrastructure development of Chabahar port, Iran.
    • The US has suspended the concessions from sanctions on Indian investments in Iran.

Trump's Gaza proposal faces strong resistance from regional players, humanitarian groups, and international allies. While Trump and Netanyahu may push for Saudi-Israel ties normalisation, Saudi’s insistence on Palestinian statehood has reshaped the post-Gaza diplomatic landscape, making it a decisive force in regional geopolitics. 

India as a bridge between Global North and South

Context: The Prime Minister of India in his address at 18th Pravasi Bharatiya Divas convention in January 2025, emphasised India’s role in amplifying the voice of Global South. Similarly, during the 3rd Voice of Global South Summit 2024, he reiterated India’s aspiration to lead reforms for a more inclusive global governance structure. 

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: India as a bridge between Global North and South. 

Understanding the Global North and Global South

  • Global North: Comprises nations such as the U.S., Canada, Europe, Russia, Australia, and New Zealand, which share commonalities in wealth, education, development, and healthcare.
  • Global South: Includes countries in Asia, Africa, and South America facing developmental deficits. Nations like India and China have experienced rapid economic growth, challenging the idea that the North is the global standard for development.

Emergence of the global North-South divide:

  • The Cold War classifications lost relevance after the USSR's collapse in 1991, leading to new global alignments.
  • The previous East-West classification oversimplified complex economic and political realities.
  • Many Global South nations share a colonial history and remain underrepresented in global institutions like the UN Security Council.

India’s motivations in championing the Global South:

  • Renewed focus: Unlike the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM), India’s current motivation is not rooted in decolonisation or strong criticism of the West. Instead, India is expanding its influence in the Global South while strengthening relations with traditional partners such as the U.S. and Europe.
  • China factor: India’s proactive stance can also be seen as aimed at countering China’s global dominance, particularly in Africa where both nations compete for influence. Additionally, industrialised nations may be strategically partnering with India to limit China’s international expansion. 
  • Strategic identity: India seeks to establish itself as an independent emerging power that advances its strategic trade, defense, and geopolitical interests. 
  • Indian value system: Nations of Global South do not seek a replacement for Western influence but rather an alternative model of cooperation. India can serve as a bridge between the Global North and Global South because of its value system of vasudhaiva kutumbakam.

Challenges to Global South development

  • High debt levels: Most Global South countries struggle with substantial debt burdens, limiting investment in essential services and infrastructure. 
  • Unequal trade patterns: Dependence on exporting raw materials at fluctuating prices, leaving them vulnerable to market fluctuations. 
  • Limited access to finance: Difficulty in accessing international capital for development projects due to risk perceptions. 
  • High population growth: Rapid population growth can strain resources and infrastructure. 
  • Climate change vulnerability: Countries in the Global South are often disproportionately affected by climate change events like droughts, floods, and extreme weather, impacting food security and livelihoods. 
  • Green Energy Fund: Despite the Global North’s greater role in climate change, they neglect funding for green energy, disproportionately impacting developing nations.
  • Russia-Ukraine War: The war has exacerbated food, energy, and financial crises in the least developed countries (LDCs), threatening their economic stability.
  • China’s Interference: Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has expanded influence in the Global South, raising concerns about debt dependency.
  • US Hegemony: Despite the perception of a multipolar world, the U.S. still dominates global affairs and institutions, limiting opportunities for other nations.
  • Inadequate access to resources: Industrialisation has historically favoured advanced economies, perpetuating disparities in development outcomes.
  • Impact of COVID-19: The pandemic widened economic divides, with countries like Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka struggling with economic vulnerability.

Steps that can be taken by India to strengthen its role

Promoting an alternative development model:

  • India advocates for equal partnerships rather than top-down approaches imposed by the Global North.
  • The ‘Global Development Compact,’ aimed at fostering growth in the Global South, is rooted in Indian experiences.
  • To be perceived as an inclusive leader, India must move beyond being a knowledge provider and engage in mutual learning with Global South nations.
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Focusing on Human-centric Development:

  • India promotes behavioural change via initiatives like Mission LiFE (‘Lifestyle For Environment’), emphasising sustainable consumption. 
  • However, a broader human-centric development model should include:
    • Workforce capacity building through initiatives like Skill India.
    • Women’s mainstreaming and entrepreneurship programs to foster economic growth.
    • A shift from short-term sector-specific programs (like ITEC) to long-term capacity-building efforts in partner nations.
    • Leveraging India’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) expertise to facilitate knowledge exchange.
    • Strengthening cooperation in key areas such as digital infrastructure, climate and energy solutions, and food and water security.

Initiatives to strengthen South-South Cooperation: 

  • Global Initiatives:
    • BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) Forum
    • IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) Forum
    • UN Day for South-South Cooperation (September 12)
  • Indian Initiatives: 
    • TRIPS Waiver proposal (2020): India and South Africa pushed for a temporary easing of intellectual property rights on COVID-19 vaccines.
    • Vaccine Maitri Campaign (2021): India provided COVID-19 vaccines to neighboring and Global South nations under its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.
    • Pan African e Network Project.
    • International Solar Alliance

The road ahead: Institutional and global governance reforms

  • Africa as centerpiece: India has pushed for inclusive global governance, evidenced by its successful advocacy for African Union membership in the G-20 during its presidency in 2023.
  • Building domestic capacity: Beyond international institutional reforms, India must build its domestic capacity for global partnerships.
  • Utilizing existing multilateral frameworks: (E.g., United Nations, Germany, and France’s cooperation models) can be a steppingstone for India to develop its own robust mechanisms.
  • Trilateral partnerships: Embrace trilateral partnerships (i.e., partnerships between India, recipient country and International Development Agency like World Food Program) and new alliances as a learning process, eventually leading to India-driven global initiatives.

India aspires to be the ‘Voice’ of the Global South. It has the opportunity to shape a new, inclusive global order by fostering meaningful collaborations and establishing itself as a responsible global development player. 

Trump’s plan to own Gaza

Context: The US President has recently proposed that the US will take over Gaza and develop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. 

Relevance of the Topic:Prelims: Key locations in News. 

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Key points about the Gaza Strip:

Geographical Location:

  • It is a coastal enclave along the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
  • It borders Israel (north and east) and Egypt (southwest, at the Rafah crossing).
  • Does not share a border with Jordan.

Political Status:

  • One of the two Palestinian territories, the other being the West Bank.
  • Governed by Hamas since 2007 after a conflict with the Palestinian Authority.
  • Subject to an Israeli and Egyptian blockade since Hamas took control.

Historical Context:

  • It was under Egyptian control (1948-1967) after the Arab-Israeli War.
  • After the 1967 Six-Day War, it was captured by Israel.
  • Oslo Accords (1993-1995) gave partial control to the Palestinian Authority.
  • Israel withdrew settlements in 2005 but still controls airspace and maritime access.

Strategic Importance:

  • Highly populated and densely urbanized (~2 million people in ~365 sq. km).
  • A focal point of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with frequent clashes.
  • Economic blockade of the strip affects trade, employment, and humanitarian conditions. 
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Concerns:

  • The proposal risks violating long-standing UNSC and UNGA resolutions supporting the Palestinian right of self-determination (which India has proactively backed at the United Nations).
  • There are concerns with respect to rehabilitation of the displaced population.
  • It also risks several peremptory norms of international law (jus cogens) including those that prohibit ethnic cleansing. 

India's VSHORADS Missile System

Context: The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has successfully conducted three successive flight-trials of the Very Short-Range Air Defence System (VSHORADS) from Chandipur off the coast of Odisha. 

During all the three flight-tests, the missiles intercepted and completely destroyed the high-speed targets flying at very low altitude.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Key facts about Very Short-Range Air Defence System; MANPADS

About VSHORADS Missile System: 

Very Short-Range Air Defence System (VSHORADS)
  • VSHORADS (Very Short-Range Air Defence System) is a fourth generation technically-advanced miniaturised Man Portable Air Defence System (MANPAD).

Indigenously developed by: DRDO’s Hyderabad-based premier facility Research Centre Imarat (RCI), in collaboration with other DRDO laboratories.

Key Features

  • Range:
    • Interception Range: up to 6 kms
    • Limiting altitude of effective target destruction: 3.5 km
  • Maximum speed: Mach 1.5
  • The missile is propelled by a dual-thrust solid motor that incorporates many technologies including:
    • dual-band Imaging Infra-Red Seeker
    • miniaturised Reaction Control System (to increase mid-air manoeuvrability)
    • integrated avionics.
  • The design focuses on portability and ease of control.

Utility

  • Can neutralise low altitude aerial threats like drones and high-speed targets at short range.
  • Hit-to-kill capability in various target engagement scenarios covering approaching, receding and crossing modes. 

Significance

  • Being man-portable and lightweight compared to the other missile systems, it can be deployed quickly in rugged and hilly terrain and maritime domain. 
  • The Air Defence weapon system has the capability to meet the needs of all the three branches of the armed forces — Indian Army, Navy and Air Force.
  • It marks a pivotal shift in India's air defence strategy, aimed at replacing aging systems like the Igla missile system acquired in 1980s, which is not well suited for evolving modern threats. 
  • Underscores India's commitment to self-reliance in defence technology and manufacturing.

What are MANPADS?

  • Man Portable Air Defence System (MANPADS) are short-range, lightweight and portable surface-to-air missiles.
  • They can be fired by individuals or small groups to destroy aircraft or helicopters.
  • They are fitted with infrared (IR) seekers that identify and target the airborne vehicle through heat radiation being emitted by the latter.
  • They have ‘fire and forget’ guidance systems i.e., the operator is not required to guide the missile to its target, enabling them to run and relocate immediately after firing.
  • They shield troops from aerial attacks and are most effective in targeting low-flying aircraft.
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Also Read: Igla-S air defence system 

India’s Emphasis on Neighbourhood First Policy: Budget 2025

Context: In the Union budget 2025, the Ministry of External Affairs has been allocated a sum of 20,516 crores, with an emphasis on Neighbourhood First Policy (NFP). 

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Key facts about Neighbourhood First Policy (NFP). 

Key allocations in the MEA budget for 2025-26

  • Emphasis on Neighbourhood First Policy (NFP):
    • Immediate neighbours of India have been allocated Rs 4,320 crore, or 64% of the total scheme portfolio, for large infrastructure projects (hydroelectric plants, power transmission lines, housing, roads, bridges, integrated check-posts).
    • The allocations highlight India's continued focus on regional diplomacy.
  • Major changes in Foreign Aid Allocations**:  (**Just for understanding, no need to remember the allocated amounts)
    • Bhutan: Increased to Rs 2,150 crore (from Rs 2,068 crore in last year’s budget estimate).
    • Maldives: Increased to Rs 600 crore (from Rs 400 crore in budget estimate).
    • Afghanistan: Reduced to Rs 100 crore (from Rs 200 crore in budget estimate).
    • Myanmar: Increased to Rs 350 crore (from Rs 250 crore in budget estimate).
    • Nepal: Maintained at Rs 700 crore.
    • Sri Lanka: Increased to Rs 300 crore (from Rs 245 crore in budget estimate).
    • Bangladesh: Unchanged at Rs 120 crore.
  • Other regions**:
    • African Nations: Increased to Rs 225 crore (from Rs 200 crore).
    • Latin America: Reduced to Rs 60 crore (from Rs 90 crore in revised estimate).
    • Chabahar Port (Iran): Unchanged at Rs 100 crore.

About Neighborhood First Policy (NFP)

  • India’s ‘Neighbourhood First policy’ guides its approach towards the management of relations with countries in its immediate neighbourhood: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. It officially came to being in 2008.
  • Aim: To enhance physical, digital and people to people connectivity across the region, as well as augmenting trade and commerce. 
  • Focus: 
    • To create mutually beneficial, people-oriented, regional frameworks for stability and prosperity.
    • India engages with these countries on a consultative, non-reciprocal and outcome-oriented basis, driven by the principles of Samman (respect), Samvad (dialogue), Shanti (peace), and Samriddhi (prosperity).
  • This policy has evolved into an institutional priority for all the relevant arms of the Government managing relations and policies with our neighbourhood.

Importance of Neighbourhood First Policy

  • Countering Chinese influence: By collaborating closely with neighbouring countries, India can counterbalance Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region.
  • Support in multilateral forums: Working with neighbouring partners strengthens India's leadership role in representing the interests of the Global South at international forums. This fosters better understanding and cooperation on global issues.
  • Ensuring territorial integrity: Collaboration with neighbouring countries is essential for India to protect its territorial integrity and tackle separatist threats effectively.
  • Increasing maritime security: Effective cooperation with neighbours is key to bolstering maritime security, which enables India to tackle transnational security challenges more effectively.
  • Addressing energy security: Close cooperation with neighbouring countries is critical for India's energy security, particularly concerning the import of oil and gas through sea routes.
  • Bridging development deficits: Actively engaging with neighbouring countries helps in the development of India's northeastern states, thus narrowing development disparities in the region.
  • Leveraging soft power diplomacy: India's deep cultural and historical connections with its neighbours strengthen people-to-people ties, solidifying India's influence in the region through soft power diplomacy.
importance of neighbourhood first policy

Challenges: 

  • Geopolitical tensions: Issues like border disputes and political disagreements can complicate relationships.
  • Implementation issues: Difficulties in executing cross-border projects due to logistical and bureaucratic challenges.
  • Economic differences: Different levels of economic development among neighbouring countries can affect the balance and effectiveness of cooperation.

Initiatives taken as a part of NFP

  • Under NFP, India has been assisting neighbouring countries on development of infrastructure projects, augmentation of capabilities and extending financial, budgetary, and humanitarian assistance. 
  • Some important examples include: 

1. Afghanistan: 

  • Humanitarian Assistance- Supply of Wheat, medical aid, vaccines, scholarship schemes for Afghan students. 
  • Salma Dam- Major hydroelectric & irrigation project 
  • Zaranj-Delram Highway- 218 km long road project connecting Delaram district in Afghanistan to the border of Iran. 

2. Bangladesh: 

  • Maitree Thermal Power project- 1320MW coal-fired power station under construction in Rampal, Bangladesh.
  • India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline- 131.5 km long oil pipeline connecting Siliguri in North Bengal to Parbatipur in Bangladesh's Dinajpur province.
  • Agartala-Akhaura rail link- Spanning 12.24 km and costing Rs 972 crores, designed to enhance trade between India's North-East and Bangladesh. 

3. Bhutan: 

  • Expansion of Paro International Airport.
  • Introduction of RuPay card in Bhutan as a cross-border payment initiative.
  • India-Bhutan SAT (jointly developed by India and Bhutan) launched by ISRO in 2022.
  • Hydropower projects- key collaboration in Mangdechhu, Chukha, Tala Project, Kuricchu hydro projects. 
  • Aid in building Gelephu Mindfulness City. 

4. Maldives: 

  • Greater Male Connectivity Project- 6.7 km long bridge connects the capital city Male with the nearby islands.
  • Grant Assistance of USD 100 million to ease financial challenges- 2022. 
  • Coastal Surveillance Radar System comprising 10 radar stations handed over to Maldives. 
  • Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital in Maldives (gifted by India)

5. Myanmar: 

  • Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project- Enhancing connectivity to Mizoram & NE India from ports through Sittwe port in Myanmar.
  • Sittwe port- deepwater port constructed by India at Sittwe, Rakhine State in Myanmar.
  • Border Area Development Program- multifaceted development in the international border to bridge physical and social infrastructure gaps. 
  • India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project- connect India's Northeast region with Thailand via Myanmar,
  • Humanitarian assistance- supply of vaccines during COVID-19 and medical aid. 

6. Nepal: 

  • Jayanagar-Kurtha line- 35 kms long cross-border railway line between India and Nepal to enhance connectivity. 
  • Motihari-Amlekhgunj pipeline- 69 km long trans-border petroleum pipeline between Amlekhgunj Oil Depot in Parsa, Nepal and Motihari, Bihar.
  • Hydropower projects- key collaboration in Sapta Kosi dam project, Upper Karnali Project, Arun - III project etc. 
  • High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDP) to build hospitals, colleges, drinking water facilities, sanitation, drainage, rural electrification etc.

7. Sri Lanka: 

  • Colombo Port Terminal project- expansion of Colombo Port.
  • Jaffna Cultural Centre- promoting cultural ties. 
  • Solar Energy Projects- 135-MW solar power plant in Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. 
  • $1 billion credit line to Sri Lanka for financial assistance. 

Other Major Initiatives:

Major Infrastructure Projects

  • BBIN Initiative (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal): Improving Road and rail connectivity.
  • Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project: Connecting India with Myanmar and further with Southeast Asia.
  • Chabahar Port: Developing a strategic port in Iran to improve connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Regional Forums

  • SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) aimed at promoting regional cooperation. However, the effectiveness of SAARC has been limited due to political differences, particularly between India and Pakistan.
  • BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) has gained prominence as an alternative to SAARC, focusing on economic cooperation, security, and cultural exchange among countries bordering the Bay of Bengal.

India’s comprehensive and longstanding ties with its neighbouring countries also stand on their own footing and are independent of the relations of these countries with third countries.

Role of Assam in lifting India-Bhutan Ties

Context: Subnational diplomacy has increasingly become a vital aspect of India’s engagement with its neighbours, particularly in regions sharing borders with other countries. 

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: India and its Neighbourhood: India-Bhutan relations. 

About Subnational diplomacy

  • Subnational diplomacy or Para diplomacy is the diplomacy conducted by sub-state governments. It introduces the idea of decentralisation of political power to make regional governments prominent actors in the international sphere.
  • While foreign affairs remain under the purview of the Central government, States like Assam have demonstrated the potential of regional governments to influence cross-border relations and deepen economic and cultural ties. 
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India-Bhutan Relationship and Assam’s significance

  • Historical and diplomatic Ties: India and Bhutan share a special relationship, characterised by mutual trust, friendship, and economic cooperation.
    • The relationship is shaped by geopolitical factors, including Bhutan’s strategic location between India and China.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Paro in 2024 reinforced India’s commitment to strengthening bilateral ties, amidst reports of Bhutan’s growing engagement with China.
  • India-Bhutan Trade Agreement: India-Bhutan Agreement on Trade, Commerce, and Transit was first signed in 1972 and last revised in 2016.
    • The agreement establishes a free trade regime and provides duty-free transit for Bhutanese exports to third countries.
  • Economic Ties:
    • Trade Statistics (2022-23): India is Bhutan’s top trade partner, accounting for 73% of Bhutan’s total trade.
    • Bilateral trade volume: ₹11,178 crore. 
    • India’s exports to Bhutan: ₹8,509 crore.
    • Assam’s contributions: Major exports include bricks, LPG, rice, and motor spirit.
  • Potential Trade Expansion: 
    • Assam’s rich natural resources (tea, oil, Joha rice, Bhut Jolokia) offer further opportunities for exports to Bhutan.
  • New Integrated Check Posts (ICPs) (E.g., Darrange) and alternative trade routes can diversify trade beyond the Jaigaon Land Customs Station (LCS) in West Bengal, which currently handles 70% of India-Bhutan trade.
  • Connectivity and Infrastructure Development:
    • Assam-Bhutan border length: The Assam-Bhutan border length is 267 km.
    • Upcoming projects to boost connectivity:
      • Kokrajhar-Gelephu Railway Project (57.5 km): Expected to be completed by 2026.
      • Banarhat (India)-Samtse (Bhutan) Railway Link.
      • Dhubri River Port (Assam): It could facilitate Bhutan’s trade with Bangladesh, reducing cost and transit time.
      • Asom Mala initiative: Assam’s infrastructure development program aimed at improving roads and transportation links to the remote districts.
  • Energy Cooperation: Hydropower is Bhutan’s economic backbone (accounts for 63% of GDP).
    • There is a complementarity as Assam faces high power demand (2,879 MW in September 2024).
    • Existing Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), such as with the Nikachhu Hydroelectric Project, can be expanded to meet Assam’s energy needs.
  • Tourism and Cultural Collaboration: 
    • Potential for joint tourism initiatives, such as a unified tourism circuit connecting attractions in Assam and Bhutan.
    • Promoting eco-tourism and cultural tourism can enhance centuries old people-to-people ties.
  • Ecological and Environmental Cooperation: 
    • Joint conservation efforts between Manas National Park (Assam) and Royal Manas National Park (Bhutan) for wildlife and biodiversity protection.
    • Collaboration in sustainable resource management and cross-border environmental initiatives.

Bhutan is at a critical juncture, balancing its economic aspirations and territorial disputes with China. India’s continued diplomatic, economic, and infrastructural support is vital for maintaining strong ties. Assam’s active role in subnational diplomacy can act as a model on how Indian states can contribute to foreign policy initiatives. 

India-Indonesia Bilateral Relations

Context: Mr. Parbowo Subianto, the President of the Republic of Indonesia was the Chief guest in the Republic Day parade.

Relevance of the Topic:Mains: Bilateral Relations: India-Indonesia Relations. 

Key dimensions of India-Indonesia Relations

Key dimensions of India-Indonesia Relations
  • Civilisational and Cultural ties: India and Indonesia share deep-rooted civilisational links dating back to ancient maritime trade routes and cultural exchanges. For example, the Bali Yatra festival commemorates historical trade connections between India’s Odisha region and Bali, Indonesia.
    • Indonesia’s cultural elements, such as the Ramayana and Mahabharata, showcase Indian influence. 
    • Similarly, the spread of Hinduism and Buddhism in Indonesia emphasises on shared heritage.
  • Political and strategic cooperation: The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (established in 2018) has focused on enhancing maritime security, regional stability, and geopolitical cooperation.
    • India and Indonesia conduct joint military exercises, such as the "Samudra Shakti" naval exercises, which strengthen defense coordination and ensure maritime safety in the Indian Ocean region.
    • Both countries cooperate closely in multilateral forums like ASEAN, G20, BRICS and the United Nations, highlighting their shared commitment to regional and global stability.
  • Economic cooperation: Bilateral trade has reached $29.4 billion in FY 2023-24, with the ambitious goal of increasing it to $50 billion by 2025. Key traded commodities include Indonesian palm oil, coal, and Indian pharmaceuticals and textiles.
    • India is the second-largest buyer of Indonesian coal, which supports India’s growing energy demands. 
    • There have been joint ventures in renewable energy, agriculture, and technology. For instance, Indian companies like Tata Power have invested in Indonesia’s coal and energy sectors.
  • Space cooperation: Both countries have collaborated on satellite technology and space exploration. For example, India’s ISRO assisted Indonesia in launching communication satellites, enhancing connectivity and disaster management capabilities in the region.
  • Health and education:
    • Health sector cooperation includes establishing healthcare facilities, hospital management training, and collaborative research on tropical diseases. 
    • Educational exchanges involve scholarships, such as those offered under the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR), and cultural programs to strengthen people-to-people ties. Indian universities attract Indonesian students pursuing higher studies.
  • Tourism:
    • Indonesia is a popular destination for Indian travelers, with over 650,000 Indian tourists visiting Bali in 2023 alone. 
    • Initiatives like the Visa-on-Arrival program facilitate seamless travel for Indians.
  • Role of the Indian diaspora:
    • The Indian diaspora in Indonesia plays a pivotal role in strengthening bilateral ties. Communities actively contribute to trade, banking, and education sectors. 
    • Events like Diwali celebrations by Indian expatriates promote cultural diplomacy and enhance goodwill.
  • Future outlook: The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership emphasises economic growth, maritime security, and regional cooperation as pillars of future engagement.
    • Indonesia’s strategic position in Southeast Asia makes it a cornerstone of India’s Act East Policy, ensuring sustained collaboration in the Indo-Pacific.

Areas of Future Collaboration

  • Research and Development (R&D) Partnerships:
    • India and Indonesia could collaborate on R&D to develop technologies that address specific renewable energy challenges. Innovations in energy storage, grid modernisation, and energy efficiency would benefit both nations. 
    • Indonesia could learn from India's advancements in solar technology, while India could benefit from Indonesia's expertise in geothermal exploration and bioenergy. 
  • Regional Energy Market Integration: 
    • Creating a regional energy market that connects Southeast Asia's and India's energy grids could facilitate shared renewable energy resources. 
    • Indonesia's interest in natural gas, particularly LNG, aligns with India's growing LNG demand.

India and Indonesia: Strategic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and beyond

Geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific:

  • Strategic location:  Indonesia’s position at the confluence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans places it at the heart of Indo-Pacific geopolitics. Its control over key sea routes like the Strait of Malacca gives Indonesia a pivotal role in global trade and regional stability. India's maritime interests align with Indonesia’s due to their shared concerns over securing critical waterways against external threats.
  • Geopolitical tensions: Rising tensions in the South China Sea highlight the need for collaboration to counterbalance external pressures and ensure freedom of navigation.

Military Strategy and Defence Cooperation: 

  • Defence Cooperation Agreement: During PM Modi’s visit in 2018, both countries concluded a Defence Cooperation Agreement. Indonesia is seeking to diversify its defence partnerships and India acquires salience here. India’s defence industry and defence exports are gaining traction with keen interest in the BrahMos system.
  • Joint Operations: Regular Coordinated Patrols (CORPAT) along the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) emphasize operational synergy. The 43rd CORPAT (2024) symbolizes growing tactical alignment to counter piracy, smuggling, and illegal fishing.
  • Strategic framework: The 2018 "Shared Vision for Maritime Cooperation" serves as a roadmap for addressing evolving security threats. Collaborative efforts target both conventional (territorial disputes) and non-conventional (illegal fishing, trafficking) security challenges.
  • Naval strengthening: India and Indonesia focus on enhancing naval readiness to deter unlawful activities and secure maritime routes. Indonesia’s efforts for modernization of naval capabilities aligns with India’s push for regional maritime stability.

Shared Defence Priorities:

  • Freedom of navigation: Both nations advocate for the unrestricted movement of goods and military assets in the Indo-Pacific. Their shared stance opposes unilateral territorial claims of China and emphasis on adherence to international law.
  • Countering emerging threats: Efforts address piracy, illegal fishing, and other maritime crimes threatening regional stability. Present collaboration extends to managing contested waters and safeguarding trade routes critical to global supply chains.
  • Long-term goals: Secure the free flow of international trade and protect sovereignty against illegal incursions. Reinforce alliances with like-minded nations to counterbalance external power influences in the Indo-Pacific.

Multilateral Cooperation:

  • Cooperation in BRICS: Indonesia's membership of BRICS, granted in 2023, presents another avenue for collaboration. Much like India and Brazil on BRICS' platforms, India and Indonesia can leverage their partnership to bring strategic heft to this bloc. While Indonesia is unlikely to deviate significantly from Chinese preferences due to its deep economic ties with Beijing, Prabowo's autonomous policymaking tendencies pro- vide room for cooperation that transcends the "China factor".
  • ASEAN Plus Policy: In the past, Indonesia played a leading role in crafting ASEAN's Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). This was instrumental in aligning the AOIP with India's Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI). Indonesia has committed to supporting the maritime resources pillar under the IPOI. By collaborating on projects within this pillar, the two nations can promote a pro-regional agenda beyond ASEAN, aligning with Prabowo's vision of creating an "ASEAN Plus" policy.
  • India-Indonesia-Australia trilateral: India and Indonesia, alongside Australia, already have a trilateral framework, though it lacks substantial content. It can build upon the IPOI and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), with India set to assume its chairmanship this year.
  • BIMSTEC: Indonesia should be invited to join the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) to integrate it better with India's eastern neighbourhood.
  • India-Japan-Indonesia Trilateral: Japan has recently expanded its Official Security Assistance (OSA) policy to include Indonesia, providing defence-related support. This opens the door for a potential India-Japan-Indonesia trilateral partnership.

By leveraging platforms such as BRICS, the IPOI, and trilateral frameworks with Australia and Japan, both India and Indonesia can forge deeper partnerships for the future. A robust India-Indonesia partnership has the potential to shape the strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

India-China to resume Direct Flights & Issue Visas

Context: India’s Foreign Secretary is on a visit to China and has met the Chinese Foreign Minister in order to repair ties with China. The countries plan to mark 75 years of diplomatic relations with celebratory events, focusing on reducing mutual suspicion and estrangement.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims & Mains: Latest diplomatic developments between India & China. 

Background: 

  • Since 2020, direct flights, visas, pilgrimages, and other exchanges were suspended, after COVID-19 pandemic and military stand-off along the LAC, including the Galwan incident (June 2020).
  • During a series of Meetings between NSA and Foreign Minister Since October 2024, disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction of troops were identified as essential steps:
    • Since then, disengagement has been completed in areas of Depsang Plains and Demchok.
    • De-escalation and de-induction are pending, with large troop deployments (50,000-60,000) still in place on both sides.

Key Takeaways from the Visit

After the recent negotiations to end to the military stand-off at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), India and China agreed to concrete measures in the following areas:

  • Resumption of flights and pilgrimages: India and China agreed to resume direct flights, visas, and the Mansarovar Yatra for pilgrims by summer 2025.
    • The Kailash Mansarovar yatra involves a visit to mount Kailash and Mansarovar lake in Tibet. 
  • Trans-border rivers and hydrological data: Both sides agreed to revive discussions on trans-border rivers (Brahmaputra and Sutlej) and resume sharing hydrological data, which China had withheld for years.
  • Economic & trade discussions:
    • Talks were held on resumption of trade via Nathu La pass (connects Sikkim to Tibet). 
    • The two sides addressed restrictions and concerns in economic relations, which include:
      • India’s concerns: India’s concerns about restrictions on pharmaceutical ingredients, high-tech exports, and critical equipment from China.
      • China's complaints: China has persistently complained regarding India’s investment policies, issuance of business visa to Chinese nationals and raids on Chinese telecom companies which has become an irritant in relationship.
  • China's Wishlist for normalising ties: Beijing has outlined specific demands to fully normalise the ties which include:
    • Resumption of direct flights.
    • Easing visa curbs for Chinese nationals (diplomats and scholars).
    • Lifting bans on Chinese mobile apps.
    • Allowing Chinese journalists to report from India.
    • Screening more Indian movies in Chinese theatres.

Read More: India-China Relations: Developments & Challenges 

Enduring Commitment to Indo-Pacific

Context: The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States signals the rejuvenation of the concept of Indo-Pacific. During his first term, Mr. Trump redefined U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific. In his second term, expectations of a more assertive U.S. security posture and strengthened alliances over the Indo-Pacific are expected. 

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Questions regarding QUAD.

Mains: Detailed questions on dynamics related to the Indo-Pacific.

What is the Indo-Pacific?

  • The term “Indo-Pacific” signifies the geo-political construct that comprises nations surrounding the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean.
  • The term broadens focus compared to the earlier “Asia-Pacific” region, and highlights India’s role as a net security provider in the region. 
  • Objective: 
    • Countering China: One of the major objectives is to counter Chinese aggression and interventions in the region. E.g., Countering Chinese fishing vessel intrusion near South America fishing grounds; challenging Chinese expansionist policies like Nine-Dashed line.
    • Enhancing security: Promote the security of the region, especially maritime security to enhance uninterrupted trade among members. E.g., Malabar exercise to boost security in the region.
    • Supply-chain resilience: The Indo-Pacific concept promotes the supply chain resilience for sustainable global trade. E.g., Launch of supply chain resilience initiative by QUAD. 
    • Nurturing all weather allies: The US focus to strengthen the allies in the region like India, Japan and Australia, to ensure regional dominance.
    • Promoting coordination: Facilitate coordination and commitment among the members during the situation of crisis.
  • QUAD grouping is the tangible manifestation of the Indo-Pacific idea. The grouping  consists of India, US, Japan and Australia.
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Importance of Indo-Pacific

  • Extended geo-political scope: Indo-Pacific usage has widened the scope of the region in terms of geopolitics as compared to the previously used term “Asia-Pacific” that was restricted to East Asia and regions of Pacific Rim. 
  • Comprehensive framework: Earlier conceptions were mainly confined to the trade and commerce between the nations, while the Indo-Pacific concept deals on the various facets like trade, communication, connectivity, supply chain, and security.
  • Institutional framework by US: The concept focuses on the dedicated US Indo-Pacific command and Office of the Secretary of Defence was reorganised to establish specialised units focusing on Indo-Pacific allies and partners.
  • Pragmatic approach: Revival of the QUAD by the previous Trump administration focussed on actionable goals of maritime security, supply-chain resilience and technological advancements.

Expected stance in Trump 2.0 Foreign Policy in Indo-Pacific:

  • Assertive stance against China: Expected stronger pushback on Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea and the Belt and Road Initiative. The U.S. might further strengthen military alliances and reinforce its naval presence.
  • Stronger Quad cooperation: The Quad (India, Japan, Australia, U.S.) will likely intensify defence coordination and joint military exercises, exemplified by their collaboration in maritime security.
  • Hard Power emphasis: The U.S. will bolster military partnerships and increase defense budgets to maintain superiority over Chinese military expansion.
  • Economic resilience: The U.S. may deepen economic ties within the Quad and invest in regional infrastructure, countering China’s economic influence. 
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What’s Ahead for India?

  • India should deepen Quad cooperation while maintaining strategic autonomy in Trump’s second term. 
  • India should strengthen ties with regional powers and diversify economic engagements beyond the U.S., focusing on ASEAN and the EU. 
  • Active participation in multilateral frameworks like UN resolutions and championing rules-based order and free navigation rights to uphold India’s interests in the evolving Indo-Pacific.

The H-1B Visa Debate 

Context: With Donald Trump becoming President of the USA, there are rumors that the US administration is going to limit the H-1B visa program. In this context, let us understand the merits of this program and the issues arising in recent times.

Relevance of the Topic:Prelims: Key facts about H1B visa. 

About H-1B Visa Program

  • The H-1B is a temporary (non-immigrant) visa category in the US that allows employers to hire highly educated foreign professionals to work in specialty occupations requiring at least a bachelor’s degree or the equivalent. 
  • Jobs in fields such as mathematics, engineering, technology, and medical sciences often qualify. 
  • The initial duration of an H-1B visa is three years, which may be extended for another three years (maximum of 6 years). 
  • Due to high demand, an annual cap of 65,000 regular visas is put in place, a computerised lottery selects the applicants.

Merits of the H-1B visa program

  • Talent utilisation: The program provides an opportunity for skilled workers to contribute to advanced sectors like IT, engineering, and other specialised fields in the U.S.
  • Economic contributions: H-1B visa holders add significant value to the U.S. businesses through their expertise, helping companies maintain technological control and competitiveness globally.
  • Addresses labour shortages: It helps address labor shortages in specialised fields by filling gaps that U.S. workers cannot meet, ensuring the smooth functioning of industries that rely on highly skilled labor.
  • Mutual benefits for workers and firms: Workers gain exposure to advanced environments and career growth opportunities, while companies benefit from their technical skills and innovation.
  • Global talent integration: By attracting global talent, the H-1B program enriches the workforce with diverse perspectives and ideas, fostering innovation and collaboration.
  • Educational and professional integration: Many H-1B visa holders are alumni of U.S. universities, and the program helps retain this talent, which has already been trained within the U.S. education system.
  • Bringing the skill back home: E.g., Several CEOs have previously worked in the US and brought their knowledge and skills back to India.

Demerits of the H-1B visa program:

  • Corporate control over workers: H-1B workers are tied to their sponsoring employers, creating dependency. This dependency allows companies to exploit workers by paying them lower wages and imposing strict conditions.
  • Lower wage standards:
    • The program legally permits companies to pay H-1B workers less than the prevailing wages for their roles, undercutting both migrant and local workers. 
    • By relying on H-1B workers as a cheaper labor pool, corporations avoid paying competitive wages to American workers, creating downward pressure on overall wage levels.
  • Fear of job loss and deportation: H-1B workers face the constant threat of losing their visa status if they lose their job. This makes them more vulnerable to accepting poor working conditions and exploitation.
  • Underemployment through loopholes: Companies often misuse the system by creating job classifications that allow them to skirt wage norms or hire workers for roles beneath their qualifications.
  • ‘Best and brightest’ myth: Critics have argued that the program is not designed to attract the best talent but rather to serve as a low-cost labour source for corporations. This undermines the original intent of the program.
  • Body shops and exploitation networks: Many H-1B workers are recruited by intermediaries or "body shops" that profit from their placement. These entities take advantage of workers by charging illegal fees, arranging fake resumes, and providing subpar job conditions.

Conclusion: Although there are systemic issues within the H-1B program that compromises the well-being of both migrant and local workers, any policy in this regard must take into account the human costs associated with the immigration policy and advocate for a stable and predictable immigration policy.

America First Trade Policy and its Impact on India

Context: Trumps’ ‘America First Trade Policy’ is set to review existing US trade agreements and sectoral trade agreements. This holds significance for India, which recorded a $50 billion trade surplus with the US in 2023, compared to $25 billion in 2019. 

The US has also indicated that appropriate measures will be taken to counter China’s currency manipulation.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Trends of US-India trade; Generalised System of Preferences; Currency Manipulation

India-US Bilateral Trade

  • Trade Partnership: 
    • The US is India’s largest trading partner.
    • The US is also one of the few countries with which India had a trade surplus in FY 2023-24.
      • In FY24, the bilateral trade between India and the US stood at a record US $ 118.2 billion, a slight decline from US$ 128.78 billion in FY22.
      • In FY24, India had a trade surplus of US$ 36.8 billion with the US.
    • The US is the 3rd largest investor in India with cumulative FDI inflows of US$ 65.19 billion from April 2000-March 2024.
  • India’s major exports to the US: Engineering goods, Electronic goods, Gems and Jewellery, Pharmaceutical Products, Light crude oil and petroleum, electrical, and others.
  • India’s imports from the US: Mineral fuels and oils, Pearls, precious, and semi-precious stones, Nuclear reactors, boilers and machinery, Electrical machinery etc. 

America First Trade Policy and its Impact on India

  • Review of Trade deficit: Trump’s government is set to investigate US’s annual trade deficits in goods, as well as the economic and National Security implications of such deficits.
  • Tariff war:
    • During his first term, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminium from India and other countries, invoking National Security provisions. 
    • He also revoked the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).
  • Impact for India: 
    • Vulnerability to tariffs:
      • India’s consumer goods exports, such as pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, and marine products, are particularly vulnerable to US tariffs due to the trade imbalance.
      • India recorded a $50 billion trade surplus with the US in 2023, compared to $25 billion in 2019. 
    • Impacts of GSP Revocation: Revoking the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) impacts India, as the preferential trade agreement benefits India the most.

What is the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP)?

  • The GSP is a non-reciprocal preferential treatmentsystem through which developed countries eliminate or reduce duties on eligible products originating in developing countries. 
    • Preference-giving countries unilaterally determine which countries and which products are included in their schemes.
    • Each developed country has customised its own GSP programme to identify qualification criteria it deems important for their economy.
  • GSP promotes economic development by eliminating duties on thousands of products when imported from a designated beneficiary countries and territories.
  • Is it WTO Compliant? Yes. The Enabling Clause under the World Trade Organisation is the legal basis for the Generalised System of Preferences. 

What is Currency Manipulation?

  • The US has indicated that appropriate measures will be taken to counter China’s currency manipulation.
    • Currency manipulation happens when governments try to artificially tweak the exchange rate to gain an unfair advantage in trade.
    • The US Treasury department defines currency manipulation as when countries deliberately influence the exchange rate between their currency and the US dollar to gain "unfair competitive advantage in international trade".

US withdraws from Paris Climate Deal

Context: The US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to withdraw from the landmark Paris climate agreement, dealing a blow to worldwide efforts to combat global warming.

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Questions related to Paris climate deal and NDCs of India.

Mains: Impact of US withdrawal from Paris climate deal. 

About Paris Climate Agreement

  • The Paris Climate Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.
  • Adopted in: It was adopted by 196 Parties in 2015, during the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, at Paris, France.
  • Key Features of the Climate deal: 
    • Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Each country sets its own emission reduction targets, with updates every five years to enhance ambition.
    • Global Stocktake: A periodic review of the progress on climate action at global level (not the national level) and identify overall gaps, conducted every five years.
    • Climate Finance: Developed countries pledged to mobilise $100 billion annually by 2020 to support climate action in developing nations, with plans for scaling this amount post-2025.
    • Adaptation and Resilience: Focuses on helping countries adapt to climate impacts and build resilience against future challenges.
  • Significance of Paris Climate Deal: First universal, legally binding, global climate deal. It emphasises global cooperation, fairness, and a commitment to sustainable development while recognising the individual capacities of nations.
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Reasons for the US to pull-out from deal: 

  • Perceived economic disadvantages: Donald Trump argues that agreement imposed unfair economic burden on US like;
    • Impact on US industries: The deal’s restrictions would harm key industries like coal, oil and natural gas, leading to job loss.
    • Hamper competitiveness of the US market as more restrictions are imposed on the US as compared to nations like China and India.
  • America first policy: Trump’s policy is to prioritise domestic growth and is skeptical of multilateral agreement that acts as a barrier to MAGA (Make America Great Again) policy of the USA.
  • Skeptical on Climate change: Trump has opposed the conception of climate change claiming them as a means to distract the masses from economic development. 
  • Claims discriminatory: Trump claims the treaty to be discriminatory as the nationally determined targets are different for the US and other nations like China and India.
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Global Impacts

  • Climate funding disruptions: The US plays a pivotal role in financing climate initiatives, but US withdrawal will lead to the disruptions in the Climate change fund for mitigating climate change.
  • Accelerated climate change: The US has shifted focus again to the fossil fuel based energy that can accelerate climate change and global warming.
  • Enhanced vulnerability: The US withdrawal will lead to rise in the vulnerability of the island nations and coastal regions, leading to climate-led disasters.
  • Cascading impact: The US withdrawal may set a precedent for other nations to withdraw from the climate deal, hampering the targets of the deal.

Suggestive Measures

  • Policy change: India can make emission norms stringent and invest in Green technology.
  • Long-term investments: India should invest in climate-resilient infrastructure under CDRI initiative to prepare for climate change.
  • Diversification of partnership: India should strengthen alliance with other nations and international organisations to secure alternate mechanisms of funding. E.g., Green bonds and climate change bonds. 
  • Promoting regional cooperation: India can explore pooling of funds from regional organisations like BRICS to find an alternative to the Paris climate deal.
  • Private partnership: Nations can explore more private funding by enhancing pollution obligations on private organisations.

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