Context: Sheikh Hasina was re-elected as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh. This win will ensure stability, continuity and common prosperity for India. Sheikh Hasina’s government has been friendly towards India.
Analysing India’s position and concerns in the scenario:
Ensuring security
- India's keen interest in the potential return of Sheikh Hasina stems from her pivotal role in alleviating security concerns along the 4,100-km border.
- Bangladesh is considered a strategic partner and a crucial ally for India, particularly concerning the security of its north-eastern states.
- However, concerns loom over the potential return of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, which could lead to a resurgence of Islamist influence.
- Sheikh Hasina's actions against ethnic insurgent groups and her cooperation in regional connectivity play a crucial role in enhancing India's security interests.
- Indian policymakers emphasize the necessity of a friendly regime in Dhaka to safeguard mutual interests.
Cultural and economic foundations
- Bangladesh's economic ascendancy, surpassing Pakistan as the second-largest economy in South Asia, enhances India's economic interests. The two nations share deep economic ties, with Bangladesh being a significant export destination for Indian goods.
- Dhaka relies on Delhi for essential commodities, and India has provided substantial financial support through a $7 billion Line of Credit for infrastructure and development projects.
- However, challenges arise in India-sponsored projects, such as the Agartala-Akhaura rail link, due to gauge disparities, impacting seamless rail movement and connectivity to Chittagong port.
- Countering China's influence
- India's pursuit of road and river transport access through Bangladesh for its north-eastern states aims to reduce vulnerability in the ‘chicken's neck’ corridor. (The Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken's Neck, is a narrow strip of land situated in West Bengal, linking India's northeastern states with the rest of the country. Spanning a mere 17 kilometers at its narrowest point, this corridor shares borders with Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Kingdom of Bhutan).
- Geopolitically, having a friendly government in Dhaka becomes crucial for India to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region.
- While maintaining relations with China, Bangladesh navigates a delicate balance between India and China, respecting India's security interests.
Regional hub aspirations
- India envisions Bangladesh as a regional hub for cooperation in the Bay of Bengal, hosting BIMSTEC's secretariat and fostering ties with other countries like Japan.
Impact of US criticism
- Historical distrust between Bangladesh and the US, rooted in the 1971 conflict, has influenced diplomatic relations.
- Interactions between Hasina and the Biden Administration suggest a potential shift in US policy, acknowledging India's interests in Bangladesh, which could positively impact India's stance in the region.
Fair and non-violent elections
- India emphasizes the importance of a fair and non-violent election process in Bangladesh, hoping Sheikh Hasina's leadership will ensure stability and prevent external critics from undermining the nation's positive image.
- However, the opposition, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), expresses distrust in the election process and claims India’s influence and demands a neutral interim government, leading to heightened tensions.
Public sentiment
- Despite India's clear preference for Sheikh Hasina's leadership aligning with its interests, bridging the gap with the people of Bangladesh remains a challenge.
- The complex dynamics require a delicate balance between strategic considerations and addressing the concerns and sentiments of the Bangladeshi populace.
A balanced approach that considers historical, religious, and political dimensions while investing in future relationships beyond individual leaders is vital for India's long-term interests in the region.
India – Bangladesh Relations:
Indian foreign policy towards its neighbours is based on one main imperative: New Delhi wishes its neighbours to keep Indian interests in mind when determining their domestic and external policies.
There is no country integrated more closely with India than Bangladesh in respect of language, ethnicity, and culture. The key difference is Islam, and it is this factor that drives the relationship to an unusual degree.
Security and Border management
- India and Bangladesh share 4096.7 km. of border, which is the longest land boundary that India shares with any of its neighbours.
- India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) came into force in 2015 under which enclaves of India and Bangladesh in each other’s countries were exchanged and strip maps were signed.
- Coordinated Border Management Plan (CBMP) signed in 2011 aims to synergize efforts of both Border Guarding Forces for checking cross border illegal activities and crimes as well as for maintenance of peace and tranquility along India-Bangladesh border.
- Both sides recognize that terrorism remains a threat to global peace and security and have reiterated their strong commitment to eliminating terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.
- Security in Northeast States: Bangladesh cooperated with India in sorting out security issues in the Northeast. Bangladesh handed over leaders and shut down their training camps.
- Ranjan Daimary: founder-chief of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB)
- Anup Chetia of United Liberation Front of Assam ULFA.
Trade Partnership
- Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia.
- The bilateral trade between the two-countries has jumped to USD 18.2 billion in 2021-22 as compared to USD 10.8 billion in 2020-21.
- Between 2009-10 and 2015-16, the trade deficit grew in India’s favour at a staggering 164.4%. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from India to Bangladesh is $3.11 billion.
- India has extended 3 Lines of Credits to Bangladesh in the last 7 years amounting to US$ 8 billion. This makes Bangladesh the largest recipient of LOC funds from India till date.
- Duty free and Quota free access has been given to Bangladeshi exports to India under SAFTA since 2011.
- Both countries are working on a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).
Read also: Evolution of ties INDIA – BANGLADESH
Connectivity
- Both jointly inaugurated, newly restored railway links between Haldibari (India) & Chilahati (Bangladesh). This rail link will further strengthen trade and people to people ties between the two sides.
- To facilitate better connectivity, simplify movement of passengers and goods, both countries agreed to an early operationalization of BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) Motor Vehicles Agreement through signing of Enabling MoU for Bangladesh, India and Nepal to commence movement of goods and passengers, with provision for Bhutan to join later.
- Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade (PIWTT) was signed (Sonamura-Daudkandi on river Gomti and extension of Dhulia to Godagiri up to Aricha on river Padma) and five new ports of call and two extended ports of call.
Cooperation in Water, Power & Energy
- Bangladesh wants early signing of an interim agreement for sharing of the Teesta waters, as agreed upon by both the governments in 2011.
- Need for early conclusion of Framework of Interim Agreement on sharing of waters of six joint rivers, namely, Manu, Muhuri, Khowai, Gumti, Dharla and Dudhkumar.
- Expedite implementation of projects including India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, Maitree Super Thermal Power Project as well as other projects.
Regional and Global Partnership
- Both countries agreed to continue working together towards achieving early reforms of the UN Security Council, combating climate change, attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and protection of the rights of migrants.
- Both reaffirmed the need for developed countries to fulfil their commitments under the Global Partnership for ensuring the means of implementation of the SDGs as enshrined in the Agenda 2030.
- Bangladesh appreciated the work of the New Development Bank and thanked India for inviting Bangladesh to join the Institution.
Challenges in India Bangladesh Relations
- Although Economic relations are expanding every day, in India’s Consolidated FDI policy 2017, Bangladesh is put in the same category as Pakistan.
- Under which a citizen of Bangladesh/Pakistan or an entity incorporated in Bangladesh/Pakistan can invest only under the Government route.
- Despite India-Bangladesh Coordinated Border Management Plan, 294 Bangladeshi Nationals have been killed along the border since 2010.
- Teesta water agreement which was agreed to in 2011 is yet to be signed because of various contentious issues that remain.
- The Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC) have created a negative impression in Bangladesh of India’s intent.
- Bangladesh is China’s second-largest arms export destination.
- Chinese firms have been outbidding their Indian counterparts in infrastructure projects.
Way forward:
- Efforts should be intensified to reach a timely consensus on delineating the Teesta river water-sharing arrangement, fostering mutual understanding between India and Bangladesh.
- Strengthening cooperation in coastal connectivity, as well as improving road, rail, and inland waterways, is crucial for fostering closer ties and facilitating smoother movement between the two nations.
- Fast-tracking the construction of the Friendship Pipeline, which facilitates the efficient transportation of high-speed diesel from India to Northern Bangladesh, is imperative for boosting economic collaboration.
- Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) Negotiations: Redirecting attention to ongoing CEPA negotiations since 2018 is pivotal for reinforcing economic relations between India and Bangladesh, fostering a more robust and mutually beneficial partnership.