Context: Population issues are under discussion again with reports suggesting the possibility of the Census being carried out in 2025 and the delimitation exercise for Parliamentary seats is likely to be conducted thereafter. Differential population growth rates amongst states in India have political, economic and social consequences; the solutions for which need to be navigated.
Relevance of the Topic: Mains- How to navigate Demographic Changes and harness Demographic Dividend?
Trends of demographic transition in India:
- Increased Share of Working Age Population: India has been witnessing a growing proportion of its population in the working-age group, which presents an opportunity for economic growth.
- Variation among the states: States like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Kerala and Delhi achieved low TFR levels. whereas states like UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan are still experiencing TFR levels way above the replacement level (2.1).
- Changing age composition: With low TFR levels and increased longevity, the country is expected to witness a declining share of young population (<15 years) and increasing share of elderly population (>60 years) over the next two decades.
Read also: Fostering Diversity: India's Demographic Landscape
Delayed Census and its Impacts:
- Decennial census provides authentic data on demography, economic activity, literacy and education, housing and household amenities, urbanisation, fertility and mortality, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, language, religion, migration, disability and many other socio-cultural and demographic data for policy making purpose to Central and the State Governments.
- However, in 2020, the census was postponed indefinitely due to the outbreak of COVID pandemic. Till then the government extended the timeline of census operations repeatedly.
Impact of delayed Census:
- Delimitation: Unavailability of latest Census data halts the process of delimitation of constituencies and determining the quantum of reservation for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.
- Sample surveys: Census data are critical for other sample surveys conducted in the country as they use the Census data as a ‘frame’ or list from which a representative sample of the population is selected for surveys. For the latest edition of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) released last year, it was the 2011 data that served as the sampling frame.
- Financial devolution: “Population” and “Demographic performance” are two criteria for financial devolution to states by the centre as suggested by the finance commission. But outdated census data impacts optimal financial devolution to states.
Policy Implications:
- Investing in Human Capital: To harness the demographic dividend, it is crucial to invest in health, education, and skill development. This will enhance the productivity of the workforce and ensure sustainable economic growth.
- Addressing the Increasing Share of the Elderly Population:
- As the old age population grows, it is essential to establish a robust social security net that includes pensions, provident funds, and insurance to provide financial stability.
- Develop geriatrics care infrastructure, including care homes and assisted living devices, to support the elderly population effectively.
- Consider increasing the retirement age to align with changing demographics and ensure a sustainable workforce.
- Facilitating Inter-State Migration: With variations in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) levels among states, mass inter-state migration may occur. To accommodate this, the government should:
- Invest in mass transport infrastructure to facilitate easy movement.
- Implement the three-language formula to ease integration.
- Remove local quotas on jobs to promote equitable access to employment opportunities.
- Delimitation of Constituencies: Adjusting the delimitation of constituencies and changing representation in Parliament according to shifting demographics will ensure fair representation and address the needs of diverse populations.
- Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI): Utilizing AI can help address labor shortages in certain states by automating processes and improving efficiency, thus complementing the existing workforce.
- Consolidation of Primary Schools: In light of the declining share of the young population, consolidating or merging primary schools can enhance their viability.
By implementing these policies, the government can effectively navigate demographic changes, promote economic stability, and ensure that all citizens benefit from the evolving socio-economic landscape.