Demography & Population Issues

India’s Demographic Dividend as a Time Bomb

Context: India’s vast youth population promises a demographic dividend. However, without education and skills aligned to the AI-driven future, it risks becoming a demographic time bomb.

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Issues in India’s education system & challenges of AI-driven transformations in the job market. 

Rabindranath Tagore once remarked, “Don’t limit a child to your own learning, for she was born in another time.” India’s education system is preparing students for the jobs of yesterday while the future of work is being rapidly shaped by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other disruptive technologies. 

With 800 million people below the age of 35, India’s youth population is considered its biggest asset. However, without appropriate reforms in education and skill development, this demographic dividend risks turning into a demographic liability.

Core Issues

  • The Indian education system remains outdated and examination-centric, with limited focus on employability and career readiness.
  • Curriculum update cycles run on three-year timelines, while technology and industry demands change at a much faster pace.
  • Increasing disconnect between degrees and job skills is leading to high underemployment and unemployability among graduates.
  • Despite multiple government skill-development initiatives, outcomes remain fragmented and insufficient. 

Causes of the Crisis: 

  • Curriculum Lag: Educational curricula do not adapt quickly enough to changing industry needs.
  • Narrow Career Awareness: Surveys show that 93% of high school students are aware of only seven career options, while the economy offers more than 20,000.
  • Examination-Centric Pedagogy: Schools prioritise rote learning and marks over creativity, problem-solving, and practical skills.
  • Ineffective Skill Missions: Programs like Skill India Mission, Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Kendra, Pradhan Mantri Yuva Yojana and SANKALP (Skill Acquisition and Knowledge Awareness for Livelihood Promotion) etc. function in silos with weak industry integration.
  • Digital Tools but Analog Mindsets : Despite smartphones and EdTech platforms, most tools are used for test preparation, not job-ready skill development.

Consequences of Inaction: 

  • Rising Unemployment and Underemployment: Only 43% of Indian graduates are considered job-ready (Graduate Skills Index 2025). Even engineering graduates face high unemployment, with 40-50% not securing placements.
  • Youth Disillusionment and Social Instability: The mismatch between expectations and opportunities risks creating frustration and unrest. Historical episodes like the 1990 Mandal protests show how youth frustration can spill into violence and instability.
  • Global Competitiveness at Risk: Without reskilling, India’s workforce may fall behind as AI and automation reshape global labour markets.
  • Demographic Time Bomb: Education without employability can worsen inequality and destabilise society.

Way Forward

  • Curriculum Reform: Shift from rote-based teaching to competency-driven learning that fosters creativity, adaptability, and problem-solving.
  • Early Career Guidance: Institutionalise career counselling in schools to widen awareness of diverse opportunities.
  • Industry-Education Linkages: Establish national skill councils to ensure curricula are updated in real-time with industry demands.
  • Focus on Reskilling and Upskilling: Encourage lifelong learning through flexible programs in emerging fields like AI, robotics, renewable energy, and healthcare.
  • Unified Skilling Mission: Consolidate fragmented schemes under a single, outcome-driven national framework.
  • Public-Private Partnerships: Foster collaboration between government, private sector, and universities to create a robust skill development ecosystem.

India stands at a decisive juncture: its demographic dividend could either power economic growth or explode as a demographic time bomb. Hence, we must not confine students to outdated learning models; instead, we must equip them for a rapidly transforming future.

UNFPA State of World Population Report 2025

Context: The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has released its State of the World Population Report 2025, titled "The Real fertility crises: The pursuit of reproductive agency in a changing world”. 

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Key facts about UNFPA State of World Population Report 2025.

Mains: The Real Fertility Crisis in India. 

Global Demographics: Key Facts

  • The global fertility rate has decreased from around 5 in 1960 to 3.3 in 1990 and 2.2 in 2024, though significant regional variations exist. 
  • More than half of the world’ s countries, accounting for over two-thirds of the global population, have a fertility rate below 2.1 births per woman. 
image 26

India’s Demographics: Key Facts

  • India remains the world's most populous country in 2025 with 1.46 billion people.
  • India's total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1. The UN report is in line with the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) results stating that India’s fertility rate stood at 2.0 in 2022.
  • Two-thirds (68%) of India’s population are aged between 15-64 years which is the working age, thereby highlighting its high potential demographic dividend. People above the age of 65 are only 7%.
  • India is placed in a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic change, with population doubling time now estimated at 79 years. 
image 27

The UN report says that millions of people are not able to realise their real fertility goals. Calling this the “real” crisis, and not overpopulation or underpopulation, it calls for the pursuit of reproductive agency, a person’s ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family.

The Real Fertility Crisis in India

  • Unmet reproductive aspirations: Over 36% of respondents (one in three adult Indians) reported an unintended pregnancy. Nearly a third (30%) have struggled with an unfulfilled desire for children. The report states 23% of Indians surveyed have experienced both.
  • Negative reasons to lower fertility: The most commonly cited reasons for having fewer children were economic, ranging from financial insecurity and unemployment, inadequate housing and limited access to quality childcare.
  • Lack of agency & unequal relationship dynamics: Family influence continues to play a key role in women’s decision of bearing children (reproductive agency). Women report partners wanting fewer children, and partners not providing assistance in household or childcare work.
  • Lack of workplace policies: For many women in the informal sector and certain private sectors, lack of supportive workplace policies such as paid parental leave, flexible hours, and childcare facilities discourages women from balancing careers with family life. There is also the fear of career setbacks or discrimination due to pregnancy.
  • Gaps in healthcare: Infertility is still stigmatised in India. Despite advances in healthcare, many women still face barriers in accessing maternal care and reproductive health information. For couples struggling with infertility, the options are often limited, expensive, or poorly regulated. Treatments are dominated by private players, and high costs, combined with lack of insurance coverage, make the experience prohibitively expensive for most.

Reproductive agency is further constrained by widespread reliance on sterilisation. India needs a rights-based approach to encourage access to reversible, modern contraception methods, expanded access to sexual and reproductive health services, including infertility care, and social change to challenge stigma.

This is required to move towards a model of demographic resilience and a future rooted in dignity, equity, and reproductive autonomy.

India’s next Population Census

Context: India’s long-postponed decadal census exercise will be conducted in two phases in 2026 and 2027. The Census paves the way to update the National Population Register (NPR) and for the establishment of the National Register of Indian Citizens (NRIC).

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Key facts and provisions about the Census, NPR, NRIC.

Mains: Importance of Census Exercise. 

India’s next Population Census

  • The next census - the exhaustive count of the population of the country and critical socio-economic details - will be conducted in two phases: 
    • Beginning in October 2026 - in snow-bound states and union territories, such as Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.
    • Beginning on March 1, 2027 for the rest of the Indian states.
  • The census will also have questions on caste - i.e., an enumeration of the various castes and sub-castes and associated population. 
  • For the first time, Census data will be collected digitally, using mobile phone apps in 16 languages (Hindi, English and 14 regional languages). These apps are designed to be simple and user-friendly for both the enumerators and citizens, since the latter will also have the option to self-enumerate.
  • Census management and monitoring system (CMMS) portal has been developed by the Office of RGI (Registrar General of India) for smooth conduct, management and monitoring of the exercise.
  • Final population data will be available at the end of 2027 due to the digital mode.

What is the Census?

  • Census is an official enumeration of the entire population of any country, done periodically by the government. It provides information on the size, distribution, socio-economic characteristics, demographics etc. of a country's population.
  • The first Census exercise in India was started in 1881 during the British period with W. C. Plowden being the first Census Commissioner of India. 
  • The Census is a Union list subject (as entry 69). Only the Central government is empowered to undertake the exercise. 
  • There is a Constitutional mandate to carry out a Census. The Census of India Act, 1948 provides the legal framework for carrying out the Census.
  • The responsibility of conducting the Census rests with the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India under the Ministry of Home Affairs.
  • Neither Indian Constitution nor the Census of India Act, 1948 specifies the timing or periodicity of this exercise. 

Significance of upcoming Census: 

  • Enumerate Caste data: The government has decided to conduct caste enumeration in the upcoming Census. Previously, all Censuses after Independence have captured only SC and ST details. It could inform disaggregated budgeting and track how welfare schemes like PM Awas Yojana or Skill India etc. are reaching caste groups, ensuring that the most marginalised are not left out. 
  • Data for Electoral Planning: This Census data would be used for the delimitation exercise for determining the revised number of seats in Lok Sabha and State Assemblies. The Census would also form the basis for reserving one-third of seats for women in Lok Sabha and State Assemblies.
  • Mapping Population Transition: The past decade has seen significant changes in population dynamics, not only in numbers with change in demographic patterns, like increased urbanisation, urban migration and increased ageing population. The Census will assist in interpreting fertility rate, migration rates and distribution of population which will assist in tracking resource distribution.
  • Update NPR & NRC: The Census date will be used for the updation of the National Population Register (NPR) and for the establishment of the National Register of Indian Citizens (NRC).
  • Reliable benchmark for Alternative Surveys: Alternative surveys, such as NFHS or NSSO while insightful, lack the comprehensiveness of the Census. Only the Census provides comprehensive, accurate data crucial for national planning, and without it, evaluations of government programs lack a reliable denominator, making policy assessments misleading. 
  • Tracking progress towards SDGs: Census data contributes to global demographic studies and aids India in fulfilling its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing accurate metrics on poverty, health, and education. 

National People Register (NPR) vs Census:

  • Resident: Any person who has been living in an area or locality for six months or more or intends to live in an area/locality for the next six months at the time of a survey is considered a resident.
  • The NPR is a register of all ‘residents’ of the country, prepared at several levels- local (village/sub-town), subdistrict, district, state and national, under the provisions of the Citizenship Act, 1955, and the Citizenship (Registration of Citizens and Issue of National Identity Cards) Rules, 2003. 
  • Aim: To create a comprehensive database of residents of the nation including their demographic particulars. The exercise is carried out under the supervision of Registrar General and ex-Officio Census Commissioner, India. 
  • Detailed inquiries into citizenship status are conducted to finalise the National Register of Citizens (NRC), which distinguishes citizens from non-citizens.

 National Register of Citizens (NRC): 

  • The NRIC draws its mandate from the Citizenship Act 1955. Initially conceptualised after the 1951 Census, the NRIC gained renewed significance following recommendations by the Subrahmanyam Committee in the aftermath of the Kargil war (1999). 
  • Aim: To enhance national security by maintaining a verified citizen registry. 
  • Benefits: Streamlining identity verification, reducing identity fraud and duplication, and enabling targeted welfare programmes that ensure benefits reach only eligible recipients.
  • The NPR serves as the initial step in achieving these objectives by differentiating citizens from non-citizens through a multi-phase process that collects demographic and biometric data on all usual residents.

National People Register (NPR) vs National Register of Citizens (NRC)

National Population Register (NPR)National Register of Citizens (NRC)
All people staying in India 6 months and above and who intend to reside for 6 months or more, including foreigners.Indian-born or Indian parents or staying in India for 11 years are eligible for Indian Citizenship.
Prepared with Census 2011 and updated in 2015. The next update was scheduled during the next Census from April 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020. Only Assam would not participate in this activity.First prepared during the 1951 Census and it is not updated regularly. Assam is the only state in the country where the NRC is updated.
NPR is not a citizenship enumeration drive as it includes foreigners as well.NRC is a citizenship enumeration drive as it includes Indian citizens only.
It is compulsory for all Indian residents to register with NPR. The main purpose of the NPR is to identify illegal migrants and identify them as foreign nationals.NRC is a subset of NPR where only the citizens of India are taken into account.

Hence, the Census data will form the bedrock for evidence-based Policy making at National and State level.

Plight of Migrant Workers

Context: According to a UNESCO report, internal migrants contribute to around 10% of India's GDP, however, migrant workers are often disregarded and considered forgotten citizens. The state mechanisms show lack of care and attention towards the plight of migrant workers.

Relevance of the Topic: Mains- Migration: Status, drivers, challenges associated, government initiatives and way forward. 

Status of Migration in India

  • As per the Census 2011, the total number of internal migrants in India were estimated to be 450 million (37% of the country’s population).
    • This had risen by 139 million from 315 million in 2001 in Census 2011 and 220 million in 1991, a doubling over 1991-2011.
  • As per NSS 2020-21 Survey: One in three Urban Indians is a ‘migrant’ but mostly intra-state. Among migrants, 55% have moved between villages, mostly women moving after marriage.
  • Marriage is a larger driver of migration than jobs for women. Jobs are the biggest reason for migration from men.
  • Himachal Pradesh and Telangana have the highest share of job-related migrants in their total urban male population.
  • Delhi has the highest share of persons (21.3%) who have come from outside its territory.

Drivers of Migration

  • Caste-based discrimination: Disadvantaged caste groups embrace migration as an opportunity to escape unfair practices in their villages, such as caste based discrimination in accessing employment, opting for other livelihood options.
  • Natural disasters and climatic conditions contribute to migration in search of livelihoods.
  • Uneven growth: The central, eastern and north-eastern parts of India have low levels of urbanisation, forcing workers to migrate to the southern and western regions, as they offer more employment opportunities.
  • Social mobility: Migration helps workers to finance expenses for marriage or to enhance their asset base, by means such as improving housing or even buying land.

Caste and Migration

  • According to NSS data, Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) are over-represented in short-term migration streams and under-represented in long-term migration streams.
  • While a substantial portion of migration for all social categories is because of marriage, a high share of both the SC and non-SC/ST categories report migrating for employment.
  • Apart from economic reasons, Lower caste groups also migrate from rural to urban areas to escape from the caste-based discrimination in their source regions.
  • SC and ST migrants are largely confined to construction sector and other informal jobs due to poor skills and lack of social networking.

Issues of Migrant Population:

  • Official Invisibility: The migrant workforce is almost invisible in official data. This absence results in deprivation of social protection programmes offered by the state.
  • No Bargaining Power: Migrant Workforce is a highly diverse group. Hence, they lack any power to bargain collectively and are susceptible to exploitation.
  • Political Exclusion: Political parties do not always recognise migrants as a political constituency and respond to their concerns, since they most often don’t exercise their voting rights in destination places.
  • Exclusion from welfare schemes: Most of the welfare schemes are linked to the place of origin of the migrants. Lack of access to proper government documents (E.g., local address proof for voter ID) deprives them from accessing most govt schemes and policies.
  • Discontinuation of education: Seasonal migrants often take their children along when they migrate for work, which negatively impacts upon the regular and continued schooling of children.
  • Violence: Social exclusion and hostility against the migrants owing to rising sense of regionalism.

Government Intervention for Migrant Workers:

●  e-SHRAM portal: To create a national database of unorganised workers seeded with Aadhaar. It is also to facilitate delivery of Social Security and welfare Schemes to such workers.

●  One Nation One Ration Card: To create a technology system which will be used for enabling migrants to access Ration from any Fair Price Shop in India.

●  Affordable Rental Housing Complexes (ARHC) for Migrant Workers/Urban Poor (under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban ): To cater to the housing needs of eligible beneficiaries.

●  Code on Social Security, 2020: The code broadens the definition of an employee to encompass informal workers to extend the existing social security net. Under this central government will establish social security funds for informal workers, gig workers, and platform workers.

●  Prime Minister Street Vendor’s AtmaNirbhar Nidhi (PM-SVANidhi): To offer affordable working capital loans to street vendors, enabling them to restart their livelihoods adversely affected by the Covid-19 lockdown.

●  State Migrant Cell: Established to develop a database of migrant workers in various states, along with comprehensive mapping.

●  Election Commission's remote voting plan for migrants: That would allow domestic migrants to vote in national and regional elections for enabling political inclusion of migrant workers so they can demand their entitlements.

Inter-state Migrant Workmen (Regulation of Employment and Conditions of Service) Act, 1979:

  • The Inter-state Migrant Workmen (Regulation of Employment and Conditions of Service) Act was enacted by the Government of India in 1979 to safeguard the interests of migrant workers.
  • ●  The act provides for payment of minimum wages, equal payment at par with local workers for similar work, payment of journey allowance, suitable accommodation, and medical facilities free of charge among others.
    • Employers must obtain a licence from the relevant authority before employing a migrant worker. Migrant workers must be registered with the district magistrate before being employed.
    • Principal employer: If a contractor does not pay wages and other benefits to migrant workers, the principal employer is responsible.
    • Penalties: The penalty for violations of the act is up to one year in prison or a fine of up to Rs. 10,000.
  • Issues: The Inter-State Migrant Workmen (Regulation of Employment and Conditions of Service) Act, 1979 has some issues, including:
    • Poor Compliance: Many migrant workers are not registered with licensed contractors, which means they do not receive the benefits of the act. Migrant workers were recruited through agents/contractors to work on large construction and other projects from outside the state and this system lends itself to various abuses.
    • India’s labour force remains largely informal and unorganised. However, there has been a lack of systematic data on unorganised workers.

Recommendations of NITI Aayog

To overcome the challenges faced by the migrants, NITI Aayog prepared a Draft policy on Migrant workers. Major recommendations of the policy are:

  • Rights-based Approach: This approach towards Migrant workers will lead to enhancing the agency and capability of the community.
  • Political inclusion of Migrant Workers to enhance accountability of political leadership towards welfare of migrant workers of their respective states.
  • Amending Inter State Migrant Workers Act, 1979 as the existing law protects only labourers migrating through a contractor, and left out independent migrants.
  • Collecting credible data on Migrants and Creation of a central database to help employers fill the gap between demand and supply and ensure maximum benefit of social welfare schemes.
  • Setting up Inter-State Coordination mechanisms and adopting strategies to check distress migration.

Addressing various challenges of Migrants is crucial for seamless migration of labourers across the country and economic unification of the country.

Demographic Issues in India

Context: As the most populous nation in the world, India is facing a demographic dilemma. The dual challenge lies in harnessing the potential of its youthful population while addressing the growing burden of an ageing society. 

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Population Issues & Demographic Transition- Trends, Concerns. 

India’s Demographic Transition:

  • Young Nation: India is among the youngest nations with a median age of 29 years and 65% of its population below the age of 35 years. 
  • Regional Variation: All States, except Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh have witnessed their total fertility rate (TFR) declining below 2.1. TFR in Tamil Nadu is the lowest (1.4), followed by Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala (1.5) and Karnataka (1.6), far below the national average of 2.0.
  • Increased Share of Working Age Population: India has been witnessing a growing proportion of its population in the working-age group, which presents an opportunity for economic growth.
  • Ageing Population: With low TFR levels and increased longevity, India is expected to witness a declining share of young population (<15 years). Also UNFPA’s “India ageing report 2023” postulates that the share of elderly (60+ years) in total population would nearly double from 10.5% in 2022 to 20.8% by 2050.
  • Steadily declining population growth rate: According to the UN, India’s population growth rate has been steadily declining since the 1990s. In 2021, the average annual rate of change of population was barely 1%. At this rate, India’s population will continue to grow, peak by 2060 and thereafter, start to decline.
image 109

Concerns for states with Ageing Population:

Due to massive strides in socio-economic development indicators like education, health, nutrition and employment, southern States have much more pronounced Population ageing vis-a-vis northern States.

  • Economic challenges:
    • Consequently, southern States face potential risks of declining future economic growth potential and rise in inbound migration. 
  • Political challenges:
    • Chances of significant potential decline in resource transfers from the Centre and erosion of political representation in Parliament after next delimitation exercise.
    • This could accentuate the already widening trust deficit between the Centre and States, eventually leading to “confrontationist federalism”, instead of “cooperative federalism”.
  • Social challenges:
    • The rapidly evolving uneven demographic landscape could exacerbate inter-State migration — from the northern and eastern States to the more affluent southern States.
    • This demographic rebalancing can create social disharmony, economic slowdown, political disequilibrium, and constitutional complications.

Way Forward:

  • Tapping into the potential of the Silver Economy: Harnessing the “silver dividend" by expanding safety nets, fostering care economy, and support systems for the greying population.
  • Investing in Human Capital: To harness the demographic dividend, it is crucial to invest in health, education, and skill development. This will enhance the productivity of the workforce and ensure sustainable economic growth.
  • Addressing the Increasing Share of the Elderly Population:
    • As the old age population grows, it is essential to establish a robust social security net that includes pensions, provident funds, and insurance to provide financial stability.
    • Develop geriatrics care infrastructure, including care homes and assisted living devices, to support the elderly population effectively.
    •  Consider increasing the retirement age to align with changing demographics and ensure a sustainable workforce.
  • Facilitating Inter-State Migration: With variations in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) levels among states, mass inter-state migration may occur. To accommodate this, the government should:
    • Invest in mass transport infrastructure to facilitate easy movement.
    • Implement the three-language formula to ease integration.
    • Remove local quotas on jobs to promote equitable access to employment opportunities.
  • Delimitation of Constituencies: Adjusting the delimitation of constituencies and changing representation in Parliament according to shifting demographics will ensure fair representation and address the needs of diverse populations.
  • Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI): Utilising AI can help address labor shortages in certain states by automating processes and improving efficiency, thus complementing the existing workforce.
  • Consolidation of Primary Schools: In light of the declining share of the young population, consolidating or merging primary schools can enhance their viability.

Conclusion: The Union government needs to frame pragmatic policies to manage demographic transition and reap demographic dividend. By implementing these policies, the government can effectively navigate demographic changes, promote economic stability, and ensure that all citizens benefit from the evolving socio-economic landscape.

How to navigate Demographic Changes in India?

Context: Population issues are under discussion again with reports suggesting the possibility of the Census being carried out in 2025 and the delimitation exercise for Parliamentary seats is likely to be conducted thereafter. Differential population growth rates amongst states in India have political, economic and social consequences; the solutions for which need to be navigated. 

Relevance of the Topic: Mains- How to navigate Demographic Changes  and harness Demographic Dividend?

Trends of demographic transition in India: 

  • Increased Share of Working Age Population: India has been witnessing a growing proportion of its population in the working-age group, which presents an opportunity for economic growth.
  • Variation among the states: States like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Kerala and Delhi achieved low TFR levels. whereas states like UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan are still experiencing TFR levels way above the replacement level (2.1).
  • Changing age composition: With low TFR levels and increased longevity, the country is expected to witness a declining share of young population (<15 years) and increasing share of elderly population (>60 years) over the next two decades. 

Read also: Fostering Diversity: India's Demographic Landscape

Delayed Census and its Impacts:

  • Decennial census provides authentic data on demography, economic activity, literacy and education, housing and household amenities, urbanisation, fertility and mortality, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, language, religion, migration, disability and many other socio-cultural and demographic data for policy making purpose to Central and the State Governments. 
  • However, in 2020, the census was postponed indefinitely due to the outbreak of COVID pandemic. Till then the government extended the timeline of census operations repeatedly.

Impact of delayed Census:

  • Delimitation: Unavailability of latest Census data halts the process of delimitation of constituencies and determining the quantum of reservation for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.
  • Sample surveys: Census data are critical for other sample surveys conducted in the country as they use the Census data as a ‘frame’ or list from which a representative sample of the population is selected for surveys. For the latest edition of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) released last year, it was the 2011 data that served as the sampling frame.
  • Financial devolution: “Population” and “Demographic performance” are two criteria for financial devolution to states by the centre as suggested by the finance commission. But outdated census data impacts optimal financial devolution to states.

Policy Implications: 

  • Investing in Human Capital: To harness the demographic dividend, it is crucial to invest in health, education, and skill development. This will enhance the productivity of the workforce and ensure sustainable economic growth.
  • Addressing the Increasing Share of the Elderly Population:
    • As the old age population grows, it is essential to establish a robust social security net that includes pensions, provident funds, and insurance to provide financial stability.
    • Develop geriatrics care infrastructure, including care homes and assisted living devices, to support the elderly population effectively.
    •  Consider increasing the retirement age to align with changing demographics and ensure a sustainable workforce.
  • Facilitating Inter-State Migration: With variations in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) levels among states, mass inter-state migration may occur. To accommodate this, the government should:
    • Invest in mass transport infrastructure to facilitate easy movement.
    • Implement the three-language formula to ease integration.
    • Remove local quotas on jobs to promote equitable access to employment opportunities.
  • Delimitation of Constituencies: Adjusting the delimitation of constituencies and changing representation in Parliament according to shifting demographics will ensure fair representation and address the needs of diverse populations.
  • Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI): Utilizing AI can help address labor shortages in certain states by automating processes and improving efficiency, thus complementing the existing workforce.
  • Consolidation of Primary Schools: In light of the declining share of the young population, consolidating or merging primary schools can enhance their viability.

By implementing these policies, the government can effectively navigate demographic changes, promote economic stability, and ensure that all citizens benefit from the evolving socio-economic landscape.

Census 2025 as a comprehensive Citizen Registry

Context: India’s long-postponed decadal census exercise and the National Population Register update are likely to begin in early 2025, with data expected by 2026. The 2025 Census includes an exercise to update the National Population Register (NPR), which is the first step for the establishment of the National Register of Indian Citizens (NRIC).

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Key facts and provisions about the Census, NPR, NRIC.

Mains: Importance of Census Exercise. 

Is the decadal Census a constitutional mandate?

  • Census is an official enumeration of the entire population of any country, done periodically by the government. It provides information on the size, distribution, socio-economic characteristics, demographics etc. of a country's population.
  • The responsibility of conducting the decennial Census rests with the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India under Ministry of Home Affairs.
  • There is a Constitutional mandate to carry out a Census. It is mentioned in the Union List of Subjects (as entry 69). Thus, only the Central government is empowered to undertake the exercise. 
  • However, neither the Indian Constitution nor the Census of India Act, 1948 (which provides the legal framework for carrying out the Census) specifies the timing or periodicity of this exercise.
    • The census is conducted every 10 years in India. Most countries follow a 10-year cycle for their census. 
    • Till date, India has successfully conducted 15 successive censuses since 1872. The latest census, originally planned for 2021, was postponed due to COVID-19. 
Census 2025 as a comprehensive Citizen Registry

About Census 2025

  • The planned Census for 2025 will follow a structured questionnaire with 31 key points, similar to prior census exercises. 
  • Queries will cover demographic details like caste affiliations, economic conditions, and household amenities, providing insights into living standards across India.
    • E.g., Citizens will be asked about their primary source of drinking water, household assets like mobile phones, vehicles, and kitchen facilities, as well as key details about family structure and the main cereal consumed. 

Importance of Census 2025: 

  • Mapping India’s Population Transition since 2011: The past decade has seen significant changes in population dynamics, not only in numbers with change in demographic patterns (like increased urbanisation, urban migration) and increased ageing population. The Census will assist in interpreting fertility rate, migration rates and distribution of population which will assist in tracking resource distribution.
  • Evidence-based Policy making: Census data forms the bedrock for National and State-level policies. E.g., 
    • Infrastructure: Information on water sources, electricity, housing and sanitation can guide infrastructure development projects.
    • Healthcare data helps in planning healthcare facilities, vaccination programs, and targeted interventions in underserved areas. 
    • Education: Identifying literacy levels and enrollment gaps ensures targeted educational reforms. 
    • Evaluating Government Schemes: Accurate population data is essential for evaluating the efficiency and outreach of welfare schemes like PMAY, MGNREGA, and PDS. 
  • Providing a reliable benchmark for Alternative Surveys: Alternative surveys, such as NFHS or NSSO while insightful, lack the comprehensiveness of the Census. Only the Census provides comprehensive, accurate data crucial for national planning, and without it, evaluations of government programs lack a reliable denominator, making policy assessments misleading. 
  • Data for Electoral Planning: Census 2025 is critical for delimitation of Parliamentary constituencies (which has been on hold for the last five decades), and the implementation of women’s reservation in Parliament. 
  • Tracking progress towards SDGs: Census data contributes to global demographic studies and aids India in fulfilling its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing accurate metrics on poverty, health, and education. 

National People Register (NPR) vs Census:

  • Any person who has been living in an area or locality for six months or more or intends to live in an area/locality for the next six months at the time of a survey is considered a resident.
  • The NPR is a register of all ‘residents’ of the country, prepared at several levels — local (village/sub-town), subdistrict, district, state and national — under the provisions of the Citizenship Act, 1955, and the Citizenship (Registration of Citizens and Issue of National Identity Cards) Rules, 2003. 
  • The objective of the exercise is to create a comprehensive database of residents of the nation including their demographic particulars. The exercise is carried out under the supervision of Registrar General and ex-Officio Census Commissioner, India. 
  • Detailed inquiries into citizenship status are conducted to finalize the National Register of Citizens (NRIC), which distinguishes citizens from non-citizens.

 National Register of Citizens (NRIC): 

  • The NRIC draws its mandate from the Citizenship Act 1955. Initially conceptualised after the 1951 Census, the NRIC gained renewed significance following recommendations by the Subrahmanyam Committee in the aftermath of the Kargil war (1999). 
  • Aim: To enhance national security by maintaining a verified citizen registry. 
  • Benefits: Streamlining identity verification, reducing identity fraud and duplication, and enabling targeted welfare programmes that ensure benefits reach only eligible recipients.
  • The NPR serves as the initial step in achieving these objectives by differentiating citizens from non-citizens through a multi-phase process that collects demographic and biometric data on all usual residents.

National People Register (NPR) vs National Register of Citizens (NRIC): 

National Population Register (NPR)National Register of Citizens (NRC)
All people staying in India 6 months and above and who intend to reside for 6 months or more, including foreigners.Indian-born or Indian parents or staying in India for 11 years are eligible for Indian Citizenship.
Prepared with Census 2011 and updated in 2015. The next update was scheduled during the next Census from April 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020. Only Assam would not participate in this activity.First prepared during the 1951 Census and it is not updated regularly. Assam is the only state in the country where the NRC is updated.
NPR is not a citizenship enumeration drive as it includes foreigners as well.NRC is a citizenship enumeration drive as it includes Indian citizens only.
It is compulsory for all Indian residents to register with NPR. The main purpose of the NPR is to identify illegal migrants and identify them as foreign nationals.NRC is a subset of NPR where only the citizens of India are taken into account.

Aadhar vs National Register of Citizens (NRIC): 

Aadhaar and the NRIC serve distinct purposes- 

  • Aadhaar is a 12-digit unique identification number issued by the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) to residents of India, regardless of citizenship. Aadhar primarily serves as a biometric-based identity verification tool, linking residents to services such as banking, subsidies, and digital identity.
  • NRIC aims to establish a comprehensive citizen registry. While Aadhaar is focused on identity verification and can be held by any resident, the NRIC is a citizenship verification system, mandating proof of citizenship. Thus, Aadhaar is broadly inclusive for all residents, whereas the NRIC serves as a definitive record for citizens.

Learnings from Assam NRC:

  • Assam is the only state where the National Register of Citizens (NIRC) has been updated (2019). 
  • Issues:
    • Stringent Documentation: Concerns over its accuracy and fairness as stringent documentation requirements left many rural and less-educated residents unable to meet the criteria. 
    • Administrative and Humanitarian challenges: Highlights the significant humanitarian and administrative challenges that could arise from implementing a nationwide NRIC.
    • Data Privacy Concerns: Concerns about data privacy and the potential misuse of demographic and biometric information persist. 
    • Logistical lessons: Verifying citizenship on a national scale requires streamlined processes and comprehensive public awareness campaigns.

The Importance of Conducting India’s Delayed Census

Context: India’s decadal Census, delayed for over three years, is more than just a population count—it provides vital data on location, familial structures, and individual characteristics such as education, occupation, and health. Relying on outdated Census data (2011) undermines large-scale surveys like the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), leading to less reliable results.

  1. Transformation Since 2011: The past decade has seen significant changes in population dynamics, education, employment, and the impact of COVID-19. An updated Census is critical for understanding these shifts and addressing them effectively through policy.
  2. Inadequacy of Alternatives: Substituting the Census with alternative surveys is insufficient. Only the Census provides comprehensive, accurate data crucial for national planning, and without it, evaluations of government programs lack a reliable denominator, making policy assessments misleading.
  3. Elections vs. Census: Logistical Feasibility: The successful conduct of general elections amidst the pandemic contrasts starkly with the delayed Census. The machinery needed for both is comparable, suggesting that the delay is more about governmental will than logistical hurdles.
  4. Caste Census: Political Distraction: While the call for a caste Census gains political momentum, it seems driven by electoral motives rather than developmental needs. Shifting focus to caste-based entitlements risks ignoring crucial indicators like education and occupation mobility.
  5. Global and SDG Implications: India’s Census delay affects global demographic understanding and the country’s ability to accurately monitor Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as reliable data on age, sex, and other attributes are compromised.

Conclusion: The delay in India’s Census is detrimental to accurate policy-making, governance, and global demographic analysis. It is crucial for the government to prioritize this exercise and avoid further delays, ensuring that progress is measured against current realities, not outdated assumptions.

The Case for a Caste Census

Context: Peter Drucker famously said, “Only what gets measured gets managed.” The problems of social groups that have been historically discriminated against (be it by caste, race, religion, gender, disability etc.) cannot be resolved without collecting data group-identity wise. Doing so is not a capitulation to identity politics but a vital step towards informed policymaking and inclusive development.

Caste-Based Census Timeline

Pre-Independence: 1871 Census was the first attempt to measure the population and enumerate caste data across India. 1931 Census was the last exercise to enumerate caste data.

Post-Independence:

  • Union of India after Independence, decided as a matter of policy not to enumerate caste wise population other than SCs and STs.
  • Thus, India’s largest caste bloc – Other Backward Classes – have not figured in the any census from 1951-2011.
  • There is no proper estimate for the population of OBCs, various groups within the OBCs, and others.
  • In 1961, the GOI advised States to conduct their own surveys and draw up State-specific OBC lists if they so desired.

Aftermath of Mandal Commission:

  • In 1979, Mandal commission (Socially and Educationally Backward Classes Commission) suggested expansion of affirmative action to include other backward classes.
  • OBCs, as per 1931 census, amounted to 52% of Indian population. Based on which a 27% reservation was given to the OBCs in 1990.
  • Later appeared demand for introduction OBC category in the decennial census to count them.

Socio-Economic Caste Census 2011:

  • SECC 2011 was first caste-based census since 1931.
  • It was conducted by Ministry of rural development (MoRD) and Ministry of housing and urban poverty alleviation in rural and urban areas respectively.
  • This was first time such a comprehensive exercise has been carried out for both rural and urban India, which included caste-wise population data.
  • 2011 SECC data, excluding the caste data, was finalised and published by the government.
  • Demand being raised to enumerate castes as part of Census 2021 itself. To make available authentic data on caste-wise population and their socio-economic conditions.

Need For Caste-Based Census

  • Social imperative : Caste continues to be a foundational social construct in India. Only about 5% of Indian marriages were inter-caste as of 2011-12. The use of caste surnames and caste marks is still widespread. Residential segregation by caste persists. Choices of candidates for elections and ministers for Cabinets continue to be dictated by caste considerations.
  • Legal imperative : Constitutionally-mandated policies of social justice which include reservations in electoral constituencies, education and public employment cannot be pursued effectively without detailed caste-wise data. Even though the Constitution uses the word class instead of caste, various rulings of the Supreme Court have held caste as a ‘relevant criterion’, ‘sole criterion’ or ‘dominant criterion’ for defining a backward class, and have demanded detailed caste-wise data for upholding reservation policies.
  • Administrative imperative : Detailed caste-wise data is necessary to avoid/correct wrongful inclusions of undeserving castes and exclusions of deserving castes, and to guard against a few dominant castes in a reserved category crowding out others. It is also needed for sub-categorising castes within a reserved category and to determine the income/wealth criterion for the creamy layer.
  • Moral imperative: The absence of detailed caste-wise data has helped a coterie of elites, among upper castes and dominant Other Backward Classes (OBCs), to corner a disproportionate share of the nation’s assets, incomes, and positions of power. Such situation leads to the demands of OBC subcategorization for ensuring a more equitable distribution of benefits. - The Justice Rohini Commission is working on sub-categorization within OBCs to address this issue.
  • Estimate change in demography: The current reservations and welfare schemes for OBCs (Other Backward Classes) are based on population estimates from the 1931 census. Since then, India's demographic landscape has significantly changed. A caste-based census can provide updated data to ensure that policies and schemes are aligned with the current population dynamics.
  • Rationalize Reservation Policy: Land fragmentation and agricultural stagnation have turned many upper-caste landowners into marginal farmers, while rising rural wages have benefited some backward classes, including Dalits. This shift necessitates a review and rationalization of the reservation policy. Accurate data can ensure that reservations are based on the current socio-economic realities of different castes. For example, the Patidar agitation in Gujarat and the Jat agitation in Haryana highlight the demand for reservations based on contemporary socio-economic conditions
  • Assess impact of Affirmative action: A socio-economic caste census can help assess the impact of reservations on OBCs and identify the relative deprivation of some castes. This assessment can inform future policy decisions and ensure that affirmative action achieves its intended goals. For example, data from such a census could reveal whether reservations have improved educational and employment outcomes for specific OBC groups.

Concerns Against Caste Based Census

  • Reinforces Caste Identities: Enumerating castes in a census might reinforce the caste identities prevalent in society, which could perpetuate social divisions. For instance, identifying individuals by caste in official documents could entrench these identities and exacerbate caste-based discrimination.
  • Vote bank politics: Caste-wise data could be used as a tool for caste-based political mobilization, leading to vote bank politics. Politicians might exploit this data to garner support from specific caste groups, undermining the broader goals of social cohesion and national integration. For example, political parties might promise caste-specific benefits to secure votes, leading to divisive politics.
  • New demands for Reservation: Numbers about OBCs might provide a new issue for regional parties to pressure the central government for an OBC quota in central government jobs and educational institutions. This could lead to increased demands for reservations, potentially beyond the current 50% cap. For instance, if the census reveals a higher OBC population, it could lead to demands for a higher reservation quota, as seen with the recent protests by various communities.
  • Federal concerns:  According to the 7th Schedule of the Constitution, the census is under the domain of the Union government. State governments conducting their own caste censuses could be against the constitutional spirit and create conflicts between the center and states. For example, the Bihar government's decision to conduct its own caste census led to debates on constitutional propriety and federal authority.

Concerns lack logical backing  (As per the Article) 

  • Socially divisive exercise: Critics argue that a caste census could be socially divisive. However, India's census already enumerates religion, language, and region, which are as divisive as caste, if not more. Casteism will not disappear by avoiding its enumeration any more than communalism or regionalism will by ignoring religion or language.
  • Administrative nightmare:  While some claim that a caste census is an administrative nightmare, India's census has successfully enumerated 1,234 castes in the SC category and 698 tribes in the ST category. Therefore, it is difficult to understand why the enumeration of the 4,000-odd other castes, most of which are State-specific, should pose an intractable problem.
  • Demands for increased reservations : On the contrary, the availability of caste-wise Census data would help curb arbitrary demands from caste groups and capricious decision-making by governments. Policy makers would be able to objectively debate and address the claims of, say, the Marathas, Patidars, Jats, or any other groups for reservations.
  • But governments prefer fuzzy data because it gives them the latitude to implement reservations arbitrarily for electoral considerations. 

Conclusion A caste-based census has the potential to provide valuable data for social justice and policy formulation.

However, it also poses significant risks, including reinforcing caste identities and promoting divisive politics.

A balanced approach, with robust safeguards and a focus on using the data to promote equality and social cohesion, is essential.

Key Take Away from Article

Why caste-wise Census data of the OBCs is essential?

Inclusion of OBCs in the Census

  • The OBCs, like SCs and STs, have constitutional provisions for reservations in education(Article-15(4)) and public employment(Article 16(4)).
  • However, there is no reservation for OBCs in electoral constituencies for MPs and MLAs. For this, caste-wise Census data of the OBCs is essential, which should have been included in the 2001 Census, but it was not.
  • Further,  When states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh etc attempted to implement OBC reservations in local body elections, the High Courts and Supreme Court stayed these efforts due to the lack of caste-wise data. The judiciary demands such data to uphold reservations, while the executive has avoided collecting it.
  • Authority of Census Data: While the Census is a Union subject, the Collection of Statistics Act, 2008 allows states and local bodies to gather necessary statistics. So Census data carries more authority and is less contested. How an Attempt at Caste Census Failed
  • In 2010, after lobbying by OBC leaders, Parliament unanimously resolved to include caste enumeration in the 2011 Census.o   However, the Socio Economic and Caste Census (SECC)-2011 was poorly executed, resulting in an unreliable figure of 46 lakh castes, and the results were never released.
  • The SECC-2011's failure stemmed from its execution outside the Census Act, 1948, by the Union Ministries of Rural Development and Urban Development, which lacked experience in sociological surveys.
  • Despite the 2010 resolution, the Central government announced in 2021 that it would not include caste enumeration in the next Census. 

The Way Forward

To ensure an effective and reliable caste census, the following steps are recommended:

  1. Amend the Census Act, 1948 to make caste enumeration mandatory.
  2. Enlist sociological and anthropological experts to draft state-specific caste lists.
  3. Design a detailed questionnaire to capture sub-caste, caste, larger caste group, and caste surname.
  4. Utilize internet-enabled hand-held devices to facilitate accurate data collection.
  5. Review and improve upon the SECC-2011 approach based on lessons learned. 

The Marriage Penalty

Context: Recently, an investigation highlighted anomalies related to hiring of women employees in Apple iPhone maker Foxconn assembly plant in Tamilnadu. It was alleged that married women’s are being rejected on grounds of pregnancy, family commitment and greater number of leaves.

Though Foxconn came up with the clarification statement in which it highlighted that 25% of its new recruitment comprises women and around women constitute 70% of its total workforce.

However, this news article delves into several factors responsible for low Female LFPR in India.

Labour force Participation rate (LFPR)

  • The labour force participation rate is the measure to evaluate working-age population in an economy.
  • Labour force participation rate is defined as the percentage of working population in the age group of 15- 64 in the economy, currently employed or seeking employment.
  • As per OECD, it is calculated as the labour force divided by the total working-age population.

Status of Female Labour Force Participation Rate

  • As per the Periodic Labour Force Survey 2022-23
    • LFPR for male in India increased from 75.8% in 2017-18 to 78.5% in 2022-23 and corresponding increase in LFPR for female was from 23.3% to 37.0%.

Now as per the findings of the report FLFPR is rising. However, It is still concerning when we focus on

  • Gender disparity – Male (78.5%) i.e. more than double of that of Women.
  • Rural Urban Gap – Higer in rural areas – reflects feminization of agriculture; lower in urban areas – Lack of formal employment opportunities
  • Comparison with developed economy – Europe and central Asia – 52%; North America – 56% ; East Asia and Pacific – 59%. FLFPR in India is below the global average of 47 percent for several years.

Reasons for low FLFPR in India

  • Unpaid care work: Women in India often have to bear the burden of unpaid care work, such as taking care of children, elderly family members, and household chores. It is often undervalued and not recognized as work.
  • Societal norms and cultural expectations: In India, traditional gender division of labour dictate that women should focus on household duties and raising children, while men are the primary breadwinners. Any deviation from such established norms attracts ostracization and marginalization which acts as a demotivation for women to take up formal jobs.
  • Lack of access to education: Girls are often denied access to education, or they drop out of school early due to poverty or familial responsibilities. This lack of education and skill development limits their employment opportunities and earning potential.
  • Limited job opportunities: Women often face discrimination in the job market, and there are fewer job opportunities available to them compared to men. For example, in the technology and finance sector.
  • Safety concerns: Women in India often face safety concerns and harassment at the workplace and also while commuting to and from work. It discourages them from seeking employment outside of the home.
  • Rising Household Incomes: Rising incomes allows women to escape harsh labour on farms and construction sites and focus on their families.
  • Lack of Rural connectivity: Lack of transport network to villages may prevent women from taking non-agricultural work in Neighbouring towns. Lack of transport services affects women more than men.
  • Nuclear families: The growing trend of nuclear families keeping childcare left to women with no support from family elders.
  • Lack of supportive policies: India lacks supportive policies, such as parental leave, and flexible work arrangements, which can enable women to balance work and family responsibilities.

Government initiatives to Improve Female Work Participation:

  • For Survival and Education of Females
    • Beti Bachao Beti Padhao Scheme: For creating awareness among the people to educate all girl children in the country. The initiative intends to tackle the issue of the diminishing sex ratio in recent years, raise social awareness, and improve the effectiveness of welfare benefits for girls.
    • National Education Policy (NEP), 2020: The policy prioritises gender equity and envisions ensuring equitable access to quality education to all students, with a special emphasis on Socially and Economically Disadvantaged Groups (SEDGs).
  • For Safe and Convenient Accommodation
    • Working Women Hostel: One of the main difficulties faced by working women is lack of safe and conveniently located accommodation. The objective of the scheme is to promote availability of safe and conveniently located accommodation for working women, with day care facilities for their children, wherever possible, in urban, semi urban, or even rural areas where employment opportunities for women exist.
  • For Supporting Women affected by violence
    • One Stop Centre (OSC) and Universalization of Women Helpline: To provide 24 hours immediate and emergency response to women affected by violence through referral (linking with appropriate authority such as police, One Stop Centre, hospital) and information about women related government schemes programs across the country through a single uniform number. Women Helpline (WHL) will be integrated with One Stop Centre Scheme (OSC) under which one OSC shall be established in every State/UT to provide integrated support and assistance to women affected by violence, both in private and public spaces under one roof.
  • Codification of the Labour Laws for harmonizing the needs of job seekers, workers and employers
    • Labour Codes:  The four Labour Codes namely, the Code on Wages, 2019, the Industrial Relations Code, 2020, the Code on Social Security, 2020 and the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2020. Codification of the Labour Laws provides a policy framework for harmonizing the needs of job seekers, workers and employers.
    • The Labour Codes will, inter-alia, reduce multiplicity of definitions & authorities, facilitate implementation and use of technology in enforcement of labour laws and bring transparency and accountability in enforcement, promote setting up of more enterprises, catalyzing the creation of employment opportunities in the country.
  • Equal Opportunity and Congenial Work Environment
    • Maternity Benefit (Amendment) Act, 2017: The Act increased the paid maternity leave from 12 weeks to 26 weeks, also made a provision for mandatory crèche facility in establishments having 50 or more employees, permitting women workers in the night shifts with adequate safety measures, etc.
    • The Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace Act, 2013: To provide protection against sexual harassment of women at workplace and for the prevention and redressal of complaints of sexual harassment and for matters connected therewith or incidental thereto.
  • Promoting Entrepreneurship
    • Female Entrepreneurship: To promote female entrepreneurship, the Government has initiated schemes like MUDRA, Stand Up India and Mahila e-Haat.
    • Rashtriya Mahila Kosh: Provides micro-credit at concessional terms to poor women for various livelihood and income generating activities.
    • Prime Minister’s Employment Generation Programme (PMEGP): Under the scheme, women entrepreneurs are provided 25 per cent and 35 per cent subsidies for the project set up in urban and rural areas respectively.

Measures to improve Female Work Participation:

  • Need of National Women’s Urban Employment Guarantee Act (WUEGA): Women should form at least 50% of the programme management staff, with a vision for decentralized management and local community involvement. Includes provisions for childcare at work sites, free public transportation for women, and work availability within a 5-km radius.
  • Ensure high participation of women in MGNREGS:  Recommendations given by Parliamentary Standing Committee on Rural Development and Panchayati Raj: Government must take measures for better promotion of “women-centric works” through creation or linking of existing livelihood projects under the scheme. Ministry of Rural Development needs to bridge the wage disparity among states by notifying a uniform wage rate structure.
  • Identification of niche sectors: There is need for identification of niche sectors like countries like the United States initiative like Girls Who Code in the USA aim to close the gender gap in technology, Japan and Italy are focusing on the healthcare and social work sectors as areas of potential job growth for women.
  • Accounting for care work: There is a need to capture the value of care in the GDP calculation. Flexible Work Options as like Netherlands: Promote work models like part-time work, remote work, and parental leave policies, empowers women to manage work-life balance effectively.
  • Invest in a wide range of care infrastructure and services solutions: Covering not only childcare, but also elder care, domestic work, and long-term care for highly dependent adults to reduce dependency and access the silver economy. For instance, Japan has leveraged some private sector partnerships for investments in affordable senior living and care services. As the share of elderly persons in India’s population is expected to rise from 10 per cent currently to 20 per cent by 2050, India, too will need to prioritise elder care infrastructure and service investments.

Japan’s ‘womenomics’ 

  • Japan was grappling with falling fertility rates, a declining population, and stagnant growth, a series of reforms on “womenomics” were introduced as part of the “Abenomics” era.
  • Women’s labour force participation rate (WLFPR) in Japan has grown by ten percentage points, from 64.9 percent in 2013 to 75.2 per cent in 2023.
  • Majority of the “womenomics” reforms have been linked to investments in the care economy and rebalancing gender norms. 

The Delay of the 2021 Census and Its Implications

Context:  The postponement of the 2021 Census in India raises various questions and concerns. One plausible explanation offered is the strategic delay by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to influence the upcoming delimitation process in anticipation of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

About Census

  • Census is a complete enumeration of the entire population of any country. 
  • It provides information on the size, distribution, socioeconomic characteristics, demographics etc of a country's population.
  • The responsibility of conducting the decennial Census rests with the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India under Ministry of Home Affairs.
  • Conduct of census in India is guided by the Census Act, 1948.
  • Census is conducted every 10 years. Till date, India has successfully conducted 15 successive censuses since 1872.

Understanding Delimitation

·   Delimitation refers to periodic attempts to ensure that the shares of different States in Lok Sabha seats are similar to their respective population shares, and also that all constituencies have the same population size as far as possible, as required under Article 81 of the Constitution.

o   Impact: The upcoming delimitation is expected to benefit states with higher population growth since 1973, potentially increasing the Lok Sabha seats for northern states at the expense of southern states.

Reasons for Delaying the Census

  • Electoral Strategy:
    • The 84th Amendment stipulates that delimitation must be based on the first census after 2026. If the census occurs before this, any delimitation would have to wait until after the next census, likely pushing it into the 2030s.
    • The forthcoming delimitation exercise is likely to shift the balance of Lok Sabha seats in favour of States that have experienced relatively fast population growth since 1973. This means, that the seat shares of the northern States will grow at the expense of the southern States. Electoral prospects of BJP will improve, since it has a much stronger base in the north than in the south.
    • Thus, delaying the census until at least 2026 could strategically benefit the BJP by aligning the delimitation timeline with the 2029 elections.
    • So By postponing the Census, the BJP may enhance its electoral prospects, especially in the northern states where it holds a stronger base.

    Consequences of the Delay

    • Welfare Schemes: The delay in census data affects the implementation of welfare programs, such as the National Food Security Act, which could benefit from updated demographic data.
      • For example under National Food Security Act, 2013 67% of the population is entitled to subsidised food grains. Under the 2011 Census, India’s population was about 121 crores, hence PDS covered approximately 80 crore people. However, population growth over the last decade should mean PDS coverage to around 92 crore people but the current delay in Census data is depriving these people of subsidised food entitlements
    • Legal Challenges: The extended postponement could be viewed as an abuse of governmental privilege, potentially infringing on fundamental rights, and might lead to legal challenges.
      • As setting the date of the Census is the Central government’s privilege under the law but postponing the 2021 Census by more than five years can be construed as an abuse of privilege and infringement of people’s fundamental rights

    Benefit of Undertaking regular Census:

    • Comprehensive Demographic and Socio-cultural Data: A census collects authentic and detailed information on various aspects such as demographic profiles, economic activities, literacy and education levels, as well as data on housing, urbanization, fertility rates, and mortality. It also gathers specifics about different ethnic and social groups, languages, religions, migration patterns, and disabilities. This broad spectrum of data is essential for understanding the composition and needs of a population. 
    • Foundation for Government and Administrative Planning: The data obtained from a census is critical for government at all levels. It serves as a primary resource for planning and making policies that target specific needs and issues identified through the census. This data aids in making informed decisions that can lead to more effective governance and the allocation of resources where they are needed most.
    • Granular Data for Local Governance: A unique feature of the census is that it provides primary data down to the smallest administrative units, such as villages or urban wards. This granularity allows local governments to plan and provide services that are finely tuned to the specific needs of their communities.  
    • Snapshot of Population Characteristics: The census acts like a photograph capturing a moment in time, providing a snapshot of the population and its characteristics at regular intervals. This snapshot helps in monitoring changes and trends in the population over time, aiding in forecasting and strategic planning.·
    • Demographic Trends and Insights: By consistently tracking changes in the population, a census highlights trends in growth, aging, migration, and other demographic shifts. Understanding these trends is vital for predicting future needs, such as educational facilities, healthcare services, and infrastructure development.
    • Electoral and Constituency Delimitation: Census data is crucial for the delimitation of electoral constituencies. It ensures that representation is balanced and based on the latest population data, thus upholding the principle of electoral equity and fairness.
    • Financial Allocation and Grants: The data from a census is also used by finance commissions to allocate central funds to states. These allocations are based on population figures, ensuring that resources are distributed in proportion to the number of people they are meant to serve. 

    Opposition's Role and Possible Actions

    • Advocate for Timely Census: The opposition can push for a timely completion of the Census to ensure updated data for administrative and welfare purposes and this could also delay the delimitation process to after the 2029 elections.
    • Legal Approach: Taking the issue to the Supreme Court to contest the delay as an infringement of people’s fundamental rights.
    • Women's Reservation and Delimitation- The 106th amendment mandates a one-third reservation of Lok Sabha and state assembly seats for women. This reservation is set to be implemented following a delimitation exercise based on the first post-2023 census data.
      • Now, a legal interpretation exists that allows women's reservation to advance through its own delimitation, independent of the broader process. This opens a route for advocating an early census and timely implementation of women's reservation, potentially ahead of the more comprehensive delimitation.

      Conclusion:

      The delay in the 2021 Census has far-reaching implications, not only for electoral politics but also for governance and welfare distribution. It presents a complex interplay of legal, constitutional, and political strategies, with significant consequences for the democratic process in India.

      Fostering Diversity: India's Demographic Landscape

      Context: A recent working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) has shed light on India's evolving religious demographics between 1950 and 2015.

      India's Demographic Landscape

      Highlights of the study

      • The study, titled 'Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015),' reveals intriguing trends that underscore India's conducive environment for fostering diversity.        

      Changing Religious Composition

      • Over the span of 65 years, India has witnessed significant shifts in its religious composition.
      • The share of the Hindu population decreased by 7.82%, from 84.68% in 1950 to 78.06% in 2015. Conversely, the Muslim population saw a notable increase of 43.15%, rising from 9.84% to 14.09% during the same period.
      • Meanwhile, other religious communities experienced varying trajectories. The share of Christians rose marginally from 2.24% to 2.36%, while Sikhs saw a modest increase from 1.24% to 1.85%. However, the Parsi community faced a substantial decline, with their share plummeting by 85%, from 0.03% to 0.004%.

      Global and Regional Perspectives

      • India's demographic trends stand out against regional and global contexts. Unlike neighbouring countries where minority populations have faced alarming shrinkage, India's minority shares have surged.
      • This is particularly remarkable given the wider South Asian neighbourhood’s trend of increasing majority dominance and diminishing minority presence.

      Policy Implications and Baseline Year

      • The paper underscores the significance of 1950 as a baseline year.
      • This period marked the emergence of the international human rights framework, emphasizing the protection of minority rights.

      Implications for Social Policy

      • The findings highlight the importance of nurturing a supportive environment for diverse communities.
      • Policy actions and societal processes play crucial roles in shaping demographic dynamics.
      • The paper suggests that promoting better life outcomes for disadvantaged sections necessitates a bottom-up approach, rooted in inclusive policies and societal support.

      Conclusion

      India's demographic landscape presents a nuanced narrative of change and continuity. Amidst global and regional trends of religious polarization, India stands as a beacon of diversity. The EAC-PM's working paper underscores the need for continued efforts to uphold the principles of inclusivity and tolerance, essential for fostering a pluralistic society in the 21st century.

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