International Relations & Security

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Why is the Strait of Hormuz critical for India?

Context: In response to the recent US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran’s Parliament has approved the closure of Strait of Hormuz. However, the final decision will be taken by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Key facts about Strait of Hormuz. Mains: Importance of Strait of Hormuz.  

The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran hold serious consequences for global energy markets, especially for countries like India, which rely heavily on oil and gas imports as Iran has reportedly threatened that it could consider closing the strait of Hormuz. 

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About Strait of Hormuz

  • Strait of Hormuz is a critical narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
  • It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Around 20% of the global oil and gas supply- including shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran- transit this narrow channel daily.
    • If it is closed by Iran, oil prices could jump to over $120, or even $150 per barrel from $74 per barrel.
  • At just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes only 3 kilometers wide in each direction, the strait is particularly vulnerable to disruption. 

Has the Strait ever been closed?

Despite past threats, Iran has never closed the Strait of Hormuz- even during major conflict- due to its global energy importance and the risk of strong retaliation from regional powers and the US. Iran might refrain from choking the Strait of Hormuz as: 

  • Rupture Iran's relationship with Oman (which owns the southern half of the strait) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC States).
  • Heavily impact China, Iran’s largest trading partner. China is the number one importer of oil, accounting for nearly three-quarters of Iran’s oil export. 
  • Impact Iran: Closure of its oil exporting terminal and associated economic hit would fuel popular discontent, which might impact both regime stability, and reformist tendencies for Iranian President.

Importance of the Strait of Hormuz for India: 

The Strait of Hormuz is vital for India due to its energy dependence in the region with most of this energy coming via the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Strategic Energy Chokepoint: India’s oil supply is heavily reliant on the region, with around 40% of its crude oil imports and 54% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. Any threat or blockade increases freight and insurance costs (risk premium), raising the landed price of oil and gas in India.
  • Global Price Surge Impact: Even without direct supply cuts, tensions cause global oil price spikes, which hurt India due to its heavy dependence on energy imports. This can affect India’s trade deficit, foreign exchange reserves, rupee stability, and inflation levels.
  • Indirect Impact via China: Even if India does not import Iranian oil (due to US sanctions), any disruption in Iran’s supply to China will push Chinese demand to India’s suppliers, tightening global supply and raising prices.

Conclusion: The Strait of Hormuz is a lifeline for India’s energy security. While immediate disruption is unlikely, continued tension in the region poses serious economic risks.

India-Croatia to strengthen bilateral ties

Context: Recently, the Prime Minister of India visited Croatia. He held official talks with the Croatian Prime Minister to enhance bilateral relations across defence, space, infrastructure, and digital sectors.

Relevance of the Topic:  Prelims: Recent developments in India-Croatia bilateral ties; Location of Croatia. 

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Key Highlights of the Visit

  • Defence Cooperation: India and Croatia will make long-term plans for deepening the defence partnership, focusing on defence production alongside training and military exchange.
  • Joint Ventures in Space: India and Croatia to jointly work on space technology and projects, reflecting India's growing soft power in tech diplomacy.
  • Economic Cooperation:
    • India seeks to enhance investment into Croatia’s critical industries like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, IT, clean technology, digital technology, and semiconductors.
    • Under the Sagarmala Project, the Indian PM invited Croatian companies to participate in port modernisation, coastal zone development, multimodal connectivity, and shipbuilding initiatives in India.
  • Connectivity: Croatia can serve as India’s gateway into Central and Southeastern Europe. Though not a formal stakeholder in IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) yet, Croatia would complement the corridor’s European leg through regional logistics and port connectivity. 

India has historical ties with the Adriatic region, further strengthened by people-to-people connections.

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Location of Croatia

  • Croatia is situated in Central and Southeast Europe, on the coast of the Adriatic Sea. 
  • It borders Slovenia (northwest), Hungary (northeast), Serbia (east), Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro (southeast), and shares a maritime border with Italy to the west.
  • Capital and largest city: Zagreb

What happens if Iran Withdraws from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?

Context: Amid the heightened military tensions between Iran and Israel, Iran's Parliament is preparing a Bill to potentially leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

Relevance of the Topic : Prelims: Key facts about Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Mains: Crisis in West Asia- Key Developments.  

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

  • NPT is a multilateral treaty, signed in 1968, aimed at limiting the spread of nuclear weapons including three elements:
    • Non-proliferation
    • Disarmament
    • Peaceful use of Nuclear Energy. 
  • It defines nuclear weapon states (NWS) as those that had manufactured and detonated a nuclear explosive device prior to 1 January 1967. Five NSW are China, France, Russia, the UK and the US. All the other states are non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS). 
  • The Treaty does not affect the right of state parties to develop, produce, and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. 
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verifies NNWS compliance with commitments under the NPT not to acquire nuclear weapons.
  • India, Israel, and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons but have never accepted the NPT. India considers NPT as flawed and as it does not recognise the need for universal, non-discriminatory verification and treatment. 

Iran is a signatory to NPT, and is obligated to allow IAEA inspections and limit enrichment. Recently, the IAEA’s Board of Governors has censured Iran for breaching its non-proliferation obligations.

According to the IAEA, Iran has 400 kg of uranium that is already enriched to 60%, just a few steps away from further enrichment to weapons-grade level of 90% or more. The total stockpile of uranium and other nuclear material would be much more.

Can Iran leave the NPT?

The United States has attacked three key nuclear installations in Iran- Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz. This marked the entry of the US into the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran has the legal right to withdraw from the NPT owing to the US strikes.

  • Article 10 of NPT: Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardised the supreme interests of its country.
  • A notice of withdrawal must be given to other parties and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), three months in advance, and such notice shall include a statement of the extraordinary events it regards as having jeopardised its supreme interests.

Exiting the treaty raises two major concerns: 

  • Increased opacity in Iran’s Nuclear program: It will keep Iran out of the IAEA’s purview and regular inspections. IAEA would lose access to visit nuclear-sites in Iran. 
  • Set a precedent to exit NPT: It could set a precedent for other states to leave the global framework and weaken cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation.

However, remaining in the NPT does not necessarily signal an intention to build nuclear weapons, because signatories (like North Korea) have also developed weapons in the past. 

US enters in Iran-Israel Conflict

Context: Recently, the United States attacked three key nuclear installations in Iran- Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, with the US President claiming that all the three facilities had been completely and totally obliterated. This marked the entry of the US into the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Locations in News- Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz

Mains: Significance of US entry in Iran for the world.

Israel-Iran Conflict- Recent Developments

  • All the three facilities targeted by the US are key uranium enrichment sites that house the infrastructure to convert natural uranium into highly enriched uranium (HEU) that is needed to make a nuclear bomb. 
  • The US attacks follow a series of missile strikes by Israel which had targeted Iran’s nuclear installations, most notably Natanz. 
    • Natanz is Iran’s main enrichment site that had Uranium enriched up to 60% purity before Israeli strikes destroyed a part of this facility. 
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In retaliation, Iran launched missile attacks at the al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest American base in West Asia. Qatar said it successfully intercepted the missiles and that there were no deaths and injuries. 

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What bombs did the US use to strike Iran?

  • The US forces used six B-2 stealth bombers to drop 12 bunker-buster bombs on Fordow. 
  • Navy submarines fired 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan, while a B2 dropped two bunker busters on Natanz.
  • These B-2 stealth bombers are equipped with the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb designed to dismantle heavily fortified underground targets. This type of bomb is unique to the US arsenal and is considered the only weapon capable of effectively targeting Iran’s most protected nuclear facilities.

Why has the US attacked Iran?

  • The US has for long opposed Iran possessing a nuclear weapon and was in talks with the country to strike a nuclear deal when Israel attacked Iran on June 13, triggering retaliation from Iran.
  • Iran has maintained that its nuclear programme is solely for peaceful purposes, however, the US and Israel believe Iran could potentially assemble a nuclear weapon.
  • Recently, the International Atomic Energy Agency censured Iran for the first time in 20 years for not working with its inspectors. It happened amid talks between the US and Iran for the removal of economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for reducing or ending uranium enrichment. 
  • The stalemate in the nuclear talks prompted the US to issue a cautionary statement that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. 
  • Iran has maintained that it would not discuss the future course of its nuclear programme while at war with Israel.

US enters in Iran-Israel Conflict- Significance & Implications

  • Stronger US-Israel bond: The strikes marked the first full-fledged demonstration of US's “iron-clad” support for Israel. Israel claims that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and posing an existential threat to it. It has long sought to target Iran’s nuclear program, but lacked the capability to take out the facility in Fordow.
  • Weakened Iran: Israel has claimed to have destroyed about one-third of Iran’s missile launching capabilities. The US B-2 bombers came in and out of Iranian airspace unchallenged is proof of the degraded capacity of Iran. The strikes have eliminated top Iranian military officials and over 600 civilians. Iran is now at its weakest, politically and militarily.
  • Ghosts of Iraq: Iran has criticised the US for violating international law and attacking its territorial sovereignty. The premise for the US attacks (that Iran was close to building a nuclear bomb) is being compared/criticised to US invasion on Iraq in 2003, when it made claims about the country possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction. This led to a bloody war over 8 years, destabilisation of the region, and emergence of Daesh in Iraq in around 2012. 

Concerns

  • Potential Nuclear Disaster in Iran: The attacks by Israel and the US have led to fears of a potential nuclear disaster, in the form of a nuclear explosion, or large-scale nuclear radiation leaks. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not seen any increase in off-site radiation levels following the US’s attack.
  • Disruption of Trade via Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s parliament (the Majlis) has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks by the US. Any ballistic missile and rocket attack in the Persian Gulf, including by the Houthis in the Red Sea region, will raise the economic cost. 
  • Escalation of Conflict and global instability: With the entry of the US, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes of the US bases in Qatar, raises concerns of a full-scale war which can have serious economic, security, humanitarian implications and cause instability in the middle-east region and the world. 
  • Iran could exit NPT: Iran has the legal right to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) owing to the US strikes. Article 10 states that an NPT member has the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events have jeopardised the supreme interests of its country. Exiting NPT will keep Iran out of the IAEA’s purview and regular inspections, and it could set a precedent for other states to leave the treaty.

India’s Stand

  • The Indian Prime Minister spoke with the President of Iran and called for immediate de-escalation, hours after the US struck three prominent nuclear sites in Iran. 
  • India launched Operation Sindhu to bring back Indians from Iran and Israel in view of increasing hostilities between the two nations.
  • India increased its purchases of Russian oil in June, importing more than the combined volumes from West Asian suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amid market volatility triggered by Israel’s attack on Iran.

Exercise Khaan Quest

Context: Exercise Khaan Quest 2025 is a multinational military exercise being hosted by Mongolia in Ulaanbaatar from June 14 to June 28.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Key facts: Exercise Khaan Quest. 

Exercise Khaan Quest

  • It is an annual joint military exercise that brings together military forces from around the world. This year’s exercise involves military contingents from over 20 countries, including India. 
  • The current year is the 22nd iteration of the exercise.
    • The exercise first started as a bilateral event between the US and Mongolian armed forces in 2003. 
    • Subsequently, from 2006 onwards, the exercise graduated to a multinational peacekeeping exercise.
  • Objective: To collaborate and enhance their peacekeeping capabilities. 
  • Focus: The exercise focuses on a high degree of physical fitness, joint planning and joint tactical drills.

The aim of the exercise is to also prepare the Indian armed forces for peacekeeping missions while operating in a multinational environment, thereby increasing interoperability and military readiness in peace support operations. An Indian Army contingent is being represented by 40 personnel. 

India's Nuclear Arsenal Increased: SIPRI Report 2025

Context: According to the latest Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) yearbook 2025, India has slightly expanded its nuclear stockpile in 2024, and continues developing new nuclear delivery systems. 

Relevance of the Topic:Prelims: Key facts about the SIPRI yearbook 2025

State of World Nuclear Arsenal

  • India had nuclear 172 warheads in 2024 and increased it to 180 in 2025. These warheads are in the country's stockpile, i.e., they are available to be deployed for operational use. India continues the development of new delivery systems, including canisterised missiles that may carry multiple warheads.
  • There are 12,241 nuke warheads globally, spread across nine nuclear-armed countries. The US and Russia own 90% of nuclear warheads. In comparison to India, China has 600 warheads and Pakistan has 170. 
  • Nine nuclear-armed countries are the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. 
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About Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

  • SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research on conflict, armaments, arms control, and disarmament established in 1966.
  • It publishes reports on global arms transfers, tracking trends in arms imports and exports.
  • It aims to provide data-driven insights for policy-making in global security and military affairs.

India’s Nuclear Strategy

  • After conducting its second nuclear test in 1998, India adopted the 'no first use' policy. India's focus was on minimum credible deterrence, i.e. to have enough weapons that the enemy could suffer heavy losses in a counter-attack.
  • India’s growing stockpile is part of a maturing nuclear triad, a strategy involving delivery of nuclear weapons via aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs).
  • Traditionally, India has kept its warheads separate from launch systems during peacetime, but SIPRI suggests that the move toward canisterised missiles and sea-based patrols may indicate a shift in doctrine.

SIPRI’s Report cautions that if no new agreement is reached to cap nuclear stockpiles, the number of warheads deployed on strategic missiles might increase after the expiry of the bilateral 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) in 2026. 

India Supports Cyprus’s Sovereignty

Context: Recently, the Prime Minister of India visited Cyprus. This is the first visit by an Indian PM to Cyprus in over 20 years, and is being seen by many as a strategic signal to Turkey, which has steadily deepened its ties with Pakistan.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Location of Cyprus. Mains: Bilateral Relations: India-Cyprus.  

India-Cyprus Ties

  • India has backed the territorial integrity of Cyprus and called for a resolution of the Cyprus issue under UNSC resolutions and international law.
  • Cyprus supports Indiaʼs candidature as a permanent member of the expanded UN Security Council. 
  • Cyprus has extended its full support for the India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement, within the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
  • On issues like Kashmir, Cyprus has supported India and even showed solidarity after the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack.
  • The small but active Indian community in Cyprus strengthens people-to-people ties and enhances India’s soft power presence in the region.

Why is Cyprus important to India?

  • Strategic location in Mediterranean: Cyprus' geographic location makes it a crucial part of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), an infrastructure project that India expects multiple benefits from.
    • IMEC is supposed to boost trade and connectivity between India and Europe via the Middle East, and Cyprus, in the Mediterranean, has an important role to play.
  • Upcoming EU Presidency: Cyprus is set to hold the Presidency of the Council of the EU in the first half of 2026. looks to build stronger trade and security ties with Europe, so Cyprus could be a crucial ally.
  • Counter Turkey: Cyprus has a long-standing and unresolved conflict with Turkey, which occupies Northern Cyprus and recognises it as a separate state. 

Location of Cyprus:

  • Cyprus (Republic of Cyprus) is an island country in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. 
  • Situated in West Asia, it is located southeast of Greece, south of Turkey, west of Syria and Lebanon, northwest of Israel and Palestine, and north of Egypt. 
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Political Boundaries: 

Cyprus is divided into two main political entities. 

  • The Republic of Cyprus controls the southern two-thirds of the island. It is internationally recognised and a member of the European Union (EU).  
  • The northern part is administered by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is only recognised by Turkey, with heavy Turkish military and economic backing. 
  • The division of the island dates back to 1974 following a Turkish invasion triggered by a Greek-led coup (aimed at annexing the island to Greece).
  • The buffer zone is known as the Green Line, and is patrolled by United Nations peacekeepers.

By deepening engagement with Cyprus, a rival of Turkey, India s sending a subtle but firm diplomatic message- If Turkey continues to back Pakistan's anti-India agenda, India would not hesitate to build stronger ties with its adversaries in the region. 

India’s uneasy Balancing Act in the Bay of Bengal

Context: India has taken several strategic, infrastructural, and diplomatic steps to position itself as a regional integrator, particularly in the Bay of Bengal and broader South Asia. However, India risks undermining the idea of cooperative regionalism, if it begins to use trade access to signal political displeasure.

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: India’s initiatives like BIMSTEC, Sagarmala, Act East, Neighbourhood first policy etc.

Mains: Impact of recent India - Bangladesh trade tensions on India's credibility as a regional leader in the Bay of Bengal.

India’s strategic steps in the Bay of Bengal Region:

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India has taken several strategic, infrastructural, and diplomatic steps in the Bay of Bengal and broader South Asia. They include: 

  • India has invested heavily in port infrastructure through the Sagarmala programme to improve coastal logistics and connectivity.
    • India's port infrastructure remains the most extensive and efficient in the region. Cargo-handling capacity is expanding rapidly, and coastal shipping and multimodal linkages are more developed than those of any other BIMSTEC partner. 
    • Regional countries like Bangladesh rely on Indian gateways for faster, cheaper access to global markets. Alternatives via Sri Lanka or Southeast Asia are costlier and less time efficient. 
  • Policy changes such as Goods and Services Tax (GST) cuts on bunker fuel and incentives for coastal shipping have doubled the cargo movement on the east coast in a decade. 
  • At the regional level, India is pushing for better integration through BIMSTEC. India has signed the BIMSTEC Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement to harmonise customs procedures and foster multimodal linkages, with the broader goal of reducing the cost and friction of trade within the Bay. 
  • Through Act East and Neighbourhood first policy, India emphasis on building connectivity with ASEAN and South Asian neighbours, especially through the Northeast.

These steps aim to improve connectivity, economic ties, and trust among its neighbours. 

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Concerns about India's credibility as a regional trade facilitator

  • India recently withdrew a key transshipment facility granted to Bangladesh. India cited misuse of the facility and regulatory concerns as reasons for the withdrawal. 
  • This move, coupled with restrictions on Bangladeshi imports of some goods via land routes, has raised concerns about India's credibility as a regional trade facilitator in the Bay of Bengal.

Geopolitical Implications

Infrastructure alone does not confer leadership. In a fragmented region like the Bay of Bengal, credibility matters as much as capacity.

  • Erosion of Trust: If India’s neighbours see trade routes being weaponised for political signaling, they will start hedging- possibly turning more towards China or Southeast Asia.
  • Impact on Regional Leadership: India wants to be the economic and connectivity hub of the Bay of Bengal, but leadership requires predictable and rule-based behaviour.
  • Signal to smaller BIMSTEC Members: Countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka may begin to doubt India’s commitment to neutral, cooperative regionalism.

Bay of Bengal is at an Inflection Point: 

  • On one level, it is a zone of opportunity. With improved connectivity, it could emerge as a self-sustaining corridor between South and Southeast Asia.
  • On another level, the region remains vulnerable to strategic anxieties. 

The line between economic policy and geopolitical preference is beginning to blur. 

Way Forward

  • Clarify Policy: Clearly state the reasons for suspending Bangladesh’s transshipment facility and the conditions for its restoration.
  • Rules-Based Mechanism: Establish transparent trade and transit rules to prevent political disruptions from affecting economic cooperation.
  • Strengthen BIMSTEC: Use BIMSTEC to institutionalise regional trade norms, customs coordination, and dispute resolution.
  • Credibility over Coercion: Maintain policy consistency to reinforce India’s image as a dependable regional leader, not a reactive power.

India abstains from UNGA resolution for Gaza ceasefire

Context: India abstained from a UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza for the fourth time in three years.

Relevance of the Topic:Prelims: Key facts about UNGA; Location of Gaza strip; developments in Israel-Palestine Issue. 

India abstains from UNGA resolution for Gaza ceasefire

  • The resolution titled- Protection of civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations was introduced in the UNGA.
    • 149 of 180 countries voted in favour of the resolution. 
    • The US voted with Israel and 10 other countries against the resolution. 
    • India was the only country in South Asia, BRICS or the SCO groupings to abstain from voting in the resolution. 
  • In December 2024, India had voted in favour of a UNGA resolution for ceasefire. The latest move of abstention by India makes a departure from India’s position just six months ago. It indicates a growing trend in the government’s policy not to vote on statements critical of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. 

The recent resolution calls on Israel and Hamas to comply with international law obligations, and an immediate and permanent facilitation of full, rapid, safe and unhindered entry of humanitarian assistance at scale in Gaza, including food and medical supplies, fuel, shelter and access to clean drinking water. 

India’s position in Israel-Palestine issue

  • India announced its recognition of Israel in 1950 and has recognised Palestine in 1988.
  • Two-State solution: India consistently supports a negotiated two-state solution leading to the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable state of Palestine, living within a secure and recognised border, side by side at peace with Israel. 

About United Nations General Assembly

  • UNGA is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations. It is the main deliberative, policymaking and representative organ of the UN. 
  • It provides a unique forum for multilateral discussion on international issues covered by the Charter of the United Nations. It includes discussions on global issues like peace, security, human rights, and other international challenges.
  • It comprises all member states of the UN (193 members). UNGA is the only UN organ where all member states have equal representation (vote). UNGA can grant observer status to the non-member States.
  • The presidency rotates annually among five geographic groups: African, Asian, Eastern European, Latin American and Caribbean, Western European and others.

Functions of UNGA:

  • Responsible for the UN budget
  • Appointing the non-permanent members to the UN Security Council
  • Appointing the UN secretary-general
  • Making recommendations through resolutions (non-binding).

Key Achievements of UNGA: 

  • Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948)
  • Millennium Development Goals (2000)
  • Agenda for Sustainable Development (2030)
  • Global Compacts on Refugees and Migration (2018)
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Key points about the Gaza Strip:

  • Geographical Location: It is a coastal enclave along the eastern Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel (north and east) and Egypt (southwest, at the Rafah crossing). Does not share a border with Jordan.
  • Political Status: One of the two Palestinian territories, the other being the West Bank. Governed by Hamas since 2007 after a conflict with the Palestinian Authority. Subject to an Israeli and Egyptian blockade since Hamas took control.
  • Historical Context: It was under Egyptian control (1948-1967) after the Arab-Israeli War. After the 1967 Six-Day War, it was captured by Israel. Oslo Accords (1993-1995) gave partial control to the Palestinian Authority. Israel withdrew settlements in 2005 but still controls airspace and maritime access.
  • Strategic Importance: Highly populated and densely urbanised (~2 million people in ~365 sq. km). A focal point of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with frequent clashes. Economic blockade of the strip affects trade, employment, and humanitarian conditions. 

IAEA declares Iran in Breach of Nuclear Non-proliferation Obligations

Context: Recently, the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), adopted a resolution declaring that Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, for the first time since 2005. 

IAEA said that Iran had consistently failed to provide information about undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple locations.

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: About IAEA Resolution, JCPOA, NPT, etc.

Mains: Reasons for Escalating Tensions in Middle East and its implications. 

IAEA Censures Iran

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors declared that Iran was non-compliant with its non-proliferation obligations.
  • The resolution comes after an IAEA investigative report which assessed that Iran was conducting “secret nuclear activities” at three locations. The Board can now consider another resolution to report Iran’s non-compliance to the UN Security Council. 

Possible ramifications of IAEA’s report:

  • The censure could pave the way for the UN Security Council and European states (the UK, France, and Germany) to snap back sanctions on Iran lifted under the 2015 Nuclear Deal (officially, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). 

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): 

  • Also known as the Iran nuclear deal.
  • Signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 nations ( USA, UK, France, Russia, China + Germany).
  • It aims to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. 
  • Iran agreed to: 
    • Cap its uranium enrichment at 3.67% purity, far below the 90% level needed for weapons-grade material.
    • Limit the number of centrifuges and reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium.
    • Allow IAEA inspections and monitoring of nuclear sites.
  • The US unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under President Trump, reinstating sanctions and Iran began violating enrichment limits in response.
  • The JCPOA is set to expire in October 2025.

Iran has condemned the IAEA resolution as “politically motivated and biased” and threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

What is the NPT?

  • The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), signed in 1968, aims to:
    • Prevent the spread of nuclear weapons,
    • Promote peaceful use of nuclear energy, and
    • Facilitate nuclear disarmament.
  • Iran is a signatory, and is obligated to allow IAEA inspections and limit enrichment.
  • Withdrawal from the NPT would raise serious global concerns, making Iran’s nuclear program completely opaque.

Iran announced plans to open a new uranium enrichment facility at a “strategically secure site” and significantly increase its enriched uranium stockpile.

Iran-US Nuclear Talks

  • Since April 2025, the US and Iran have conducted five formal rounds of negotiations aiming for a deal which stops Iran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief.
  • The US recognises Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy but objects to uranium enrichment on Iranian soil due to the risk of weaponisation.
  • The US proposes that a consortium of Arab states and the US handle enrichment and supply fuel to Iran. Iran rejected the proposal stating- Iran does not need anyone’s permission to enrich uranium within its own borders. 
  • Iran’s refusal risks collapsing negotiations, which could lead to unchecked uranium enrichment and push Iran closer to weapons-grade capability, escalating nuclear tensions.

Wider Geopolitical Implications

The crisis may result in:

  • Regional war involving Iran, Israel, and US forces. Israel views a nuclear-capable Iran as an existential threat and has historically opposed the JCPOA. Iran has responded with threats to hit US bases in the region, if the US takes military action.
  • Trade instability: Disruption of global oil supplies, impacting energy prices. Further instability in Gulf and West Asia, affecting global trade routes and security.
  • Iran’s threats to increase enrichment: Iran announced that it will inaugurate a new enrichment facility at a secure, undisclosed location and replace its first-generation centrifuges at the Fordow enrichment facility with sixth-generation centrifuges. The move aims at a significant increase in the production of enriched materials.

Also Read: Operation Rising Lion: Israel Attacks Iran  

Operation Rising Lion: Israel Attacks Iran 

Context: Israel launched a large-scale military operation named “Operation Rising Lion” against Iran. The operation involved a series of airstrikes, hitting more than 100 targets across Iran.

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Key facts about Operation Rising Lion, key locations.

Mains: Geopolitical Implications of Operation Rising Lion.

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Operation Rising Lion

  • Israel launched the large-scale military operation which involved a series of airstrikes, hitting more than 100 targets across Iran.
  • Key targets were: Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, missile sites, and top military and nuclear personnel.
    • Attacked Natanz Nuclear Facility- the heart of Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, located in the Central province of Isfahan.
    • Israel's strikes killed top military personnel like:
      • Maj Gen Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the armed forces
      • Gen Hossein Salami, chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), arguably the most powerful institution in the country.
    • Israel also targeted a number of military sites across Iran. These include:
      • a nuclear research centre and two military bases in Tabriz in northern Iran
      • missile development and production facilities in Bid Kaneh, on the southern edge of Tehran
      • a missile base in Kermanshah in central Iran; and multiple military bases in and around Tehran.
  • This is by far Israel's most extensive attack on a sovereign state since the 1967 war and is likely to have far-reaching consequences for the region and the world.

Why did Israel strike now?

  • The immediate trigger was a resolution passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declaring Iran as non-compliant with its nuclear obligations - the first such resolution in two decades. 
  • The resolution came after revelations that Iran was secretly conducting nuclear activities at three undisclosed sites. Israel has long viewed a nuclear Iran as an existential threat.
  • Talks between Iran and the US in Oman to revive the 2015 nuclear deal had shown little progress.

Wider Geopolitical Implications: 

  • The strike may lead to a broader regional war. Iran's response through drone attacks and the threat of further retaliation increases the chances of open conflict.
  • The attack has likely derailed the US-Iran talks in Oman to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.
  • The shared threat from Iran has brought Arab states closer to Israel. The Abraham Accords may further deepen as Gulf countries and Israel enhance their security cooperation.

Old Continent Rises: India-Europe Relations in a Shifting World Order

Context: India is deepening strategic ties with Europe amidst Trump-era volatility, enhancing prospects for a multipolar world. 

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Significance of Europe for India in a changing world order.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Europe, along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s participation in the 2025 G7 summit in Canada, and his upcoming visits to Croatia and Cyprus, highlights India’s renewed emphasis on deepening strategic ties with Europe. 

India’s recalibrated approach acknowledges Europe's emerging role as a potential swing state amid the shifting power equations among the US, Russia, and China.

Why does Europe matter to India now?

Europe, once on the periphery of India’s foreign policy, is now emerging as a strategic partner due to three key global shifts: 

  • Trump-era volatility: Trump’s “America First” doctrine and his transactional approach to alliances like NATO and G7 has created uncertainty in the west, pushing India to diversify ties with Europe.
  • Europe as a Swing State: As the US-China rivalry intensifies, Europe is emerging as a strategic swing state, it gives India a chance to build balanced, independent partnerships in trade, defence, and technology, supporting India’s vision of a multipolar world.
  • Shared Outlook on Multipolarity: Europe’s push for strategic autonomy aligns with India’s vision of a multipolar, de-hyphenated world order. 
  • Security Realignments: Post-Ukraine war, European nations like Germany, France, and Poland are taking more responsibility for their own security. This opens space for India to collaborate on defence, especially in the Indo-Pacific.

The strategic alignment grounded in shared economic interests, democratic values, and the pursuit of enhanced national security.

How India is deepening ties with Europe?

  • High Level Engagements: Indian PM’s visit to the G7 Summit presents an opportunity to strengthen links with the broader Western bloc, and engage with the G7 on global issues like climate change, digital governance, and economic resilience. External Affairs Minister’s frequent visits to Europe.
  • Trade and Tech cooperation:  
    • The EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC), established in 2023, advances cooperation in AI, quantum computing, outer space, and green technologies.
    • The once unlikely India-EU Free Trade Agreement is now back on track, reflecting growing mutual interest in deeper economic integration.
  • Connectivity Initiatives: India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) aims to create alternative trade routes and reduce supply chain dependency on China.
  • Defence Collaboration: Joint military exercises (E.g., with France), co-development talks, and Europe’s €800 billion ReArm 2030 plan offer scope for defence industrial partnerships.

Challenges:

  • Russia remains a sensitive factor in India-EU relations. India maintains long-standing defence ties with Russia and has refrained from criticising Russia’s war in Ukraine. Europe is at the receiving end of Russia’s ambitions to rearrange the regional order. However, both India and the EU have prioritised pragmatic engagement over ideological arguments. 

As the West grapples with internal divisions and the US-China rivalry grows, Europe offers India a reliable partner for balanced cooperation in trade, defence, and technology. Together, both can play a key role in shaping a stable, multipolar world order.

About G-7: 

  • A group of 7 advanced economies- the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan that meet annually to discuss global economic and political issues.
  • India is not a member, and is regularly invited as a guest member. 
  • G7 Summit 2025 is being hosted by Canada.

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