Context: Recently, the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), adopted a resolution declaring that Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, for the first time since 2005.
IAEA said that Iran had consistently failed to provide information about undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple locations.
Relevance of the topic:
Prelims: About IAEA Resolution, JCPOA, NPT, etc.
Mains: Reasons for Escalating Tensions in Middle East and its implications.
IAEA Censures Iran
- The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors declared that Iran was non-compliant with its non-proliferation obligations.
- The resolution comes after an IAEA investigative report which assessed that Iran was conducting “secret nuclear activities” at three locations. The Board can now consider another resolution to report Iran’s non-compliance to the UN Security Council.
Possible ramifications of IAEA’s report:
- The censure could pave the way for the UN Security Council and European states (the UK, France, and Germany) to snap back sanctions on Iran lifted under the 2015 Nuclear Deal (officially, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA):
- Also known as the Iran nuclear deal.
- Signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 nations ( USA, UK, France, Russia, China + Germany).
- It aims to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
- Iran agreed to:
- Cap its uranium enrichment at 3.67% purity, far below the 90% level needed for weapons-grade material.
- Limit the number of centrifuges and reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium.
- Allow IAEA inspections and monitoring of nuclear sites.
- The US unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under President Trump, reinstating sanctions and Iran began violating enrichment limits in response.
- The JCPOA is set to expire in October 2025.
Iran has condemned the IAEA resolution as “politically motivated and biased” and threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
What is the NPT?
- The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), signed in 1968, aims to:
- Prevent the spread of nuclear weapons,
- Promote peaceful use of nuclear energy, and
- Facilitate nuclear disarmament.
- Iran is a signatory, and is obligated to allow IAEA inspections and limit enrichment.
- Withdrawal from the NPT would raise serious global concerns, making Iran’s nuclear program completely opaque.
Iran announced plans to open a new uranium enrichment facility at a “strategically secure site” and significantly increase its enriched uranium stockpile.
Iran-US Nuclear Talks
- Since April 2025, the US and Iran have conducted five formal rounds of negotiations aiming for a deal which stops Iran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief.
- The US recognises Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy but objects to uranium enrichment on Iranian soil due to the risk of weaponisation.
- The US proposes that a consortium of Arab states and the US handle enrichment and supply fuel to Iran. Iran rejected the proposal stating- Iran does not need anyone’s permission to enrich uranium within its own borders.
- Iran’s refusal risks collapsing negotiations, which could lead to unchecked uranium enrichment and push Iran closer to weapons-grade capability, escalating nuclear tensions.
Wider Geopolitical Implications
The crisis may result in:
- Regional war involving Iran, Israel, and US forces. Israel views a nuclear-capable Iran as an existential threat and has historically opposed the JCPOA. Iran has responded with threats to hit US bases in the region, if the US takes military action.
- Trade instability: Disruption of global oil supplies, impacting energy prices. Further instability in Gulf and West Asia, affecting global trade routes and security.
- Iran’s threats to increase enrichment: Iran announced that it will inaugurate a new enrichment facility at a secure, undisclosed location and replace its first-generation centrifuges at the Fordow enrichment facility with sixth-generation centrifuges. The move aims at a significant increase in the production of enriched materials.
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