US enters in Iran-Israel Conflict

Context: Recently, the United States attacked three key nuclear installations in Iran- Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, with the US President claiming that all the three facilities had been completely and totally obliterated. This marked the entry of the US into the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.

Israel-Iran Conflict- Recent Developments

• All the three facilities targeted by the US are key uranium enrichment sites that house the infrastructure to convert natural uranium into highly enriched uranium (HEU) that is needed to make a nuclear bomb. 
• The US attacks follow a series of missile strikes by Israel which had targeted Iran’s nuclear installations, most notably Natanz. 
  • Natanz is Iran’s main enrichment site that had Uranium enriched up to 60% purity before Israeli strikes destroyed a part of this facility. 

In retaliation, Iran launched missile attacks at the al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest American base in West Asia. Qatar said it successfully intercepted the missiles and that there were no deaths and injuries. 

What bombs did the US use to strike Iran?

• The US forces used six B-2 stealth bombers to drop 12 bunker-buster bombs on Fordow. 
• Navy submarines fired 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan, while a B2 dropped two bunker busters on Natanz.
• These B-2 stealth bombers are equipped with the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb designed to dismantle heavily fortified underground targets. This type of bomb is unique to the US arsenal and is considered the only weapon capable of effectively targeting Iran’s most protected nuclear facilities.

Why has the US attacked Iran?

• The US has for long opposed Iran possessing a nuclear weapon and was in talks with the country to strike a nuclear deal when Israel attacked Iran on June 13, triggering retaliation from Iran.
• Iran has maintained that its nuclear programme is solely for peaceful purposes, however, the US and Israel believe Iran could potentially assemble a nuclear weapon.
• Recently, the International Atomic Energy Agency censured Iran for the first time in 20 years for not working with its inspectors. It happened amid talks between the US and Iran for the removal of economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for reducing or ending uranium enrichment. 
• The stalemate in the nuclear talks prompted the US to issue a cautionary statement that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. 
• Iran has maintained that it would not discuss the future course of its nuclear programme while at war with Israel.

US enters in Iran-Israel Conflict- Significance & Implications

• Stronger US-Israel bond: The strikes marked the first full-fledged demonstration of US's “iron-clad” support for Israel. Israel claims that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and posing an existential threat to it. It has long sought to target Iran’s nuclear program, but lacked the capability to take out the facility in Fordow.
• Weakened Iran: Israel has claimed to have destroyed about one-third of Iran’s missile launching capabilities. The US B-2 bombers came in and out of Iranian airspace unchallenged is proof of the degraded capacity of Iran. The strikes have eliminated top Iranian military officials and over 600 civilians. Iran is now at its weakest, politically and militarily.
• Ghosts of Iraq: Iran has criticised the US for violating international law and attacking its territorial sovereignty. The premise for the US attacks (that Iran was close to building a nuclear bomb) is being compared/criticised to US invasion on Iraq in 2003, when it made claims about the country possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction. This led to a bloody war over 8 years, destabilisation of the region, and emergence of Daesh in Iraq in around 2012. 

Concerns

• Potential Nuclear Disaster in Iran: The attacks by Israel and the US have led to fears of a potential nuclear disaster, in the form of a nuclear explosion, or large-scale nuclear radiation leaks. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not seen any increase in off-site radiation levels following the US’s attack.
• Disruption of Trade via Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s parliament (the Majlis) has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks by the US. Any ballistic missile and rocket attack in the Persian Gulf, including by the Houthis in the Red Sea region, will raise the economic cost. 
• Escalation of Conflict and global instability: With the entry of the US, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes of the US bases in Qatar, raises concerns of a full-scale war which can have serious economic, security, humanitarian implications and cause instability in the middle-east region and the world. 
• Iran could exit NPT: Iran has the legal right to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) owing to the US strikes. Article 10 states that an NPT member has the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events have jeopardised the supreme interests of its country. Exiting NPT will keep Iran out of the IAEA’s purview and regular inspections, and it could set a precedent for other states to leave the treaty.

India’s Stand

• The Indian Prime Minister spoke with the President of Iran and called for immediate de-escalation, hours after the US struck three prominent nuclear sites in Iran. 
• India launched Operation Sindhu to bring back Indians from Iran and Israel in view of increasing hostilities between the two nations.
• India increased its purchases of Russian oil in June, importing more than the combined volumes from West Asian suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amid market volatility triggered by Israel’s attack on Iran.