Dilemma for India

Context:  India's continued silence on the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, underscores its diplomatic ‘dilemma’ in maintaining balanced relationships with both nations. Mr. Haniyeh was accused of orchestrating the October 7 terror attacks on Israel and served as Hamas' political chief. 

Dilemma

• The Ministry of External Affairs has issued a travel advisory for Indians in Israel and Lebanon and plans to update advisories for other regions. 
• No statement has been made regarding the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. The assassination is significant for India due to its proximity to the country's neighbourhood.
• The Indian government faces a dilemma in responding, given its strong ties with both Iran and Israel.
• India condemned the October 7 attacks in Israel as acts of terrorism but has not classified Hamas as a terrorist organization despite Israeli requests.
• Additionally, India has facilitated the transfer of 5,000 construction workers and plans to send 5,000 caregivers to Israel following the termination of Palestinian workers after the October 7 attacks. 
• India will carefully consider the implications for its relations with Israel, crucial for security and military cooperation, and with Iran, where India has significant economic interests.

Israel-Iran conflict:

• In 2024, the Iran–Israel proxy conflict escalated to a brief period of direct confrontation.
• On April 1, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, Syria, killing multiple senior Iranian officials.
• In retaliation, Iran and its proxies seized the Israeli-linked ship MSC Aries and launched strikes inside Israel on April 13. Israel responded with retaliatory strikes in Iran and Syria. 
• The Israeli strikes were limited, signalling a desire to de-escalate, and Iran did not respond further, leading to a reduction in tensions back to the proxy conflict level.
• Other actors, including the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Jordan, intercepted Iranian drones to defend Israel.

Concerns about a wider regional conflict in the Middle East have been raised since the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, and subsequent attacks in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis, placing Iran and Israel at the centre of these tensions.

However, the Iran-Israel relationship was not always as fraught. Iran was one of the first countries in the region to recognize Israel after its formation in 1948, with diplomatic ties ending only after 1979.

Pre-1979 Iran-Israel ties:

• In 1948, the Arab states' opposition to the newly established State of Israel culminated in the first Arab-Israeli war.
• Iran, which did not participate in this conflict, recognized Israel following its victory, making it the second Muslim-majority country to do so after Turkey.
• According to the Brookings Institute's analysis, Israel's first Prime Minister, David Ben Gurion, developed the ‘periphery doctrine’ to counter Arab hostility.
• This strategy involved forming alliances with non-Arab, predominantly Muslim countries in the Middle East, notably Turkey and pre-revolution Iran, both of which had Western orientations and felt isolated in the region.
• During this period, Iran was under the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty, led by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and enjoyed strong US support. Similarly, Israel was a US ally.
• The two nations maintained amicable relations, with Iran supplying oil to Israel despite the economic boycott imposed by the Arab states.

The 1979 Revolution: 

• The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, which overthrew the Shah, led to the establishment of a religious state with a fundamentally different stance towards Israel.
• The new regime viewed Israel as an occupier of Palestinian land.
• Ayatollah Khomeini, the Iranian Supreme Leader, labelled Israel the ‘Little Satan’ and the United States the ‘Great Satan,’ accusing both of regional interference.
• Post-revolution Iran sought to expand its regional influence, directly challenging US allies Saudi Arabia and Israel.
• Egypt's leader, Gamal Abdel Nasser, had promoted ‘pan-Arabism,’ advocating for Arab unity based on cultural commonalities, which placed non-Arab Iran at odds with this ideology. 
• However, following Nasser’s death in 1970, Iran’s relations with Arab countries like Egypt improved. 
• The 1975 Iran-Iraq accord, where Iran agreed to cease arming Kurdish separatists, temporarily ceased hostilities between the two countries, reducing Israel's strategic value to Iran.

Shadow War-post 1979: 

• Following the revolution, Iran-Israel relations deteriorated significantly, leading to a shadow war characterized by proxy conflicts and strategic attacks rather than direct military confrontation.
• Israel has periodically targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, including a series of attacks in the early 2010s aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear weapons development.
• The 2010 Stuxnet cyberattack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, believed to be a joint US-Israel operation, was the first known cyberattack on industrial machinery.
• Conversely, Iran has funded and supported anti-Israel and anti-US militant groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These actions have fuelled concerns about escalating conflicts.
• US President Joe Biden has largely backed Israel's right to self-defence, despite facing criticism over the high civilian casualties in Gaza. This delicate balance of support, especially in an election year, contributes to the ongoing regional uncertainty.

India’s stakes in Iran-Israel conflict

India’s adeptness at maintaining balanced relationships with both Israel and Iran has been a notable aspect of its foreign policy.

However, the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East poses significant challenges that could impact India in multiple ways.

1. Impact on Indian citizens:

• India’s large expatriate community in the region is at risk if the conflict intensifies.
• With approximately 18,000 Indians residing in Israel and 5,000-10,000 in Iran, and around 9 million Indians living across the Gulf and West Asia, any escalation would endanger these individuals.

2. Economic interests; 

• India’s energy security is intricately linked to the West Asian region, which supplies about 80% of its oil. 
• The potential disruption of oil supplies due to conflict could lead to increased energy prices, impacting India’s economy.
• Although India has mitigated some of the effects of global oil price volatility through discounted Russian oil, a new conflict could negate these efforts and exacerbate economic challenges.
• New Delhi is also concerned about the impact of these tensions on recent initiatives like the 10-year India-Iran MoU for the development of Chabahar port.
• Any conflict or US sanctions could affect India's plans for Chabahar port and connectivity projects with Afghanistan and Central Asia.

3. Strategic needs: 

• India’s strategic interests in the region are substantial.
• The country has cultivated significant ties with major Arab nations, Iran, and Israel, and is invested in initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC). This corridor is crucial for economic integration and strategic positioning.
• The ongoing West Asian tensions have hindered meetings of the IMEEC steering committee. 
• Additionally, the India-Israel-UAE-US I2U2 initiative and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) linking Indian cargo routes to Russia could be jeopardized.
• An expanded conflict could unravel the regional consensus necessary for stability and cooperation.

4. Diplomatic dilemma and challenges of maintaining balance: 

• India’s strategic relationship with Israel, particularly in defence and security, has been robust, highlighted by support during critical moments such as the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas.
• Conversely, India’s ties with Iran are also significant, especially considering Tehran’s role as a major crude supplier and its alignment with India’s counter-terrorism objectives.
• Balancing relations with both Israel and Iran have historically been challenging for India. Notable incidents include diplomatic confrontations between Israeli and Iranian representatives in New Delhi, underscoring the delicate nature of India’s position.

India’s stance on de-escalation and return to diplomacy is crucial for preserving its national interests amidst the volatile regional dynamics.

As the situation evolves, India’s diplomatic manoeuvres will be essential in safeguarding its people, economic interests, and strategic objectives while navigating the complex web of Middle Eastern geopolitics.