Context: As the most populous nation in the world, India is facing a demographic dilemma. The dual challenge lies in harnessing the potential of its youthful population while addressing the growing burden of an ageing society.
Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Population Issues & Demographic Transition- Trends, Concerns.
India’s Demographic Transition:
- Young Nation: India is among the youngest nations with a median age of 29 years and 65% of its population below the age of 35 years.
- Regional Variation: All States, except Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh have witnessed their total fertility rate (TFR) declining below 2.1. TFR in Tamil Nadu is the lowest (1.4), followed by Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala (1.5) and Karnataka (1.6), far below the national average of 2.0.
- Increased Share of Working Age Population: India has been witnessing a growing proportion of its population in the working-age group, which presents an opportunity for economic growth.
- Ageing Population: With low TFR levels and increased longevity, India is expected to witness a declining share of young population (<15 years). Also UNFPA’s “India ageing report 2023” postulates that the share of elderly (60+ years) in total population would nearly double from 10.5% in 2022 to 20.8% by 2050.
- Steadily declining population growth rate: According to the UN, India’s population growth rate has been steadily declining since the 1990s. In 2021, the average annual rate of change of population was barely 1%. At this rate, India’s population will continue to grow, peak by 2060 and thereafter, start to decline.
Concerns for states with Ageing Population:
Due to massive strides in socio-economic development indicators like education, health, nutrition and employment, southern States have much more pronounced Population ageing vis-a-vis northern States.
- Economic challenges:
- Consequently, southern States face potential risks of declining future economic growth potential and rise in inbound migration.
- Political challenges:
- Chances of significant potential decline in resource transfers from the Centre and erosion of political representation in Parliament after next delimitation exercise.
- This could accentuate the already widening trust deficit between the Centre and States, eventually leading to “confrontationist federalism”, instead of “cooperative federalism”.
- Social challenges:
- The rapidly evolving uneven demographic landscape could exacerbate inter-State migration — from the northern and eastern States to the more affluent southern States.
- This demographic rebalancing can create social disharmony, economic slowdown, political disequilibrium, and constitutional complications.
Way Forward:
- Tapping into the potential of the Silver Economy: Harnessing the “silver dividend" by expanding safety nets, fostering care economy, and support systems for the greying population.
- Investing in Human Capital: To harness the demographic dividend, it is crucial to invest in health, education, and skill development. This will enhance the productivity of the workforce and ensure sustainable economic growth.
- Addressing the Increasing Share of the Elderly Population:
- As the old age population grows, it is essential to establish a robust social security net that includes pensions, provident funds, and insurance to provide financial stability.
- Develop geriatrics care infrastructure, including care homes and assisted living devices, to support the elderly population effectively.
- Consider increasing the retirement age to align with changing demographics and ensure a sustainable workforce.
- Facilitating Inter-State Migration: With variations in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) levels among states, mass inter-state migration may occur. To accommodate this, the government should:
- Invest in mass transport infrastructure to facilitate easy movement.
- Implement the three-language formula to ease integration.
- Remove local quotas on jobs to promote equitable access to employment opportunities.
- Delimitation of Constituencies: Adjusting the delimitation of constituencies and changing representation in Parliament according to shifting demographics will ensure fair representation and address the needs of diverse populations.
- Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI): Utilising AI can help address labor shortages in certain states by automating processes and improving efficiency, thus complementing the existing workforce.
- Consolidation of Primary Schools: In light of the declining share of the young population, consolidating or merging primary schools can enhance their viability.
Conclusion: The Union government needs to frame pragmatic policies to manage demographic transition and reap demographic dividend. By implementing these policies, the government can effectively navigate demographic changes, promote economic stability, and ensure that all citizens benefit from the evolving socio-economic landscape.