Context: The Finance Minister promised a committee to study India’s population growth to ensure that the nation is on target to meet the Viksit Bharat goal by 2047.
India’s current Population Dynamics and further challenges:
- The steady decline in fertility rates is leading to a scenario where two parents are now being replaced by two children and all segments of the society have begun to adopt family planning.
- Currently, 33 per cent of the population is aged 20-29, while 23 per cent of the population is aged 40-59. But in 2047, the proportion of the younger population will decrease, and the proportion of older working ages will increase, with each forming about 28 per cent of the population.
- Dependency burden, defined as the number of individuals ages 15-59 supporting children under 15 and older population above 60, will vary dramatically between states.
- For example in 2021, in Bihar, 151 working-age adults supported 100 dependents, while in Tamil Nadu, 189 adults supported the same population; this will flip with the worker-to-dependent ratio changing to 201 in Bihar and 132 in Tamil Nadu by 2051.
- As fertility declines, the burden of child care for women will drop. An analysis of National Family Health Survey data shows that in 1993, an average woman spent about 14 years caring for children under age five.
- This number dropped to eight years in 2021, however, time freed up from childcare has not been utilised in increased participation in the workforce.
Way forward:
- To ensure that this growing proportion of middle-aged workers can keep up with the changing demands of an increasingly technologically driven economy, government must invest in continued skill upgradation and on-the-job training.
- For expanding women’s ability to participate in the job market may be to improve the availability of childcare, possibly through creative combinations of Anganwadi and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. MGNREGA works should include rotational provision of childcare under the supervision of a trained early childhood educator.
- A combination of rising numbers of elderly and a declining number of children to care for them means the government must increase the ability of this older population to be self-sustaining.
- A combination of policies will be needed, including rising retirement age, enhanced old age pension schemes, and increased ability to sell land or homes, assets in which most of the wealth of the Indian elderly resides.
- Lessons from China, as China implemented a strict one-child policy, bringing it to a demographic cliff. China has reached a point where the needs of its aging population have begun to drag down its economic growth. Relaxing the one-child limitation has been unsuccessful in increasing fertility.
- This suggests that India should refrain from a similar panicked reaction and let fertility decline continue at a natural pace.
- The future of elderly and children in India will depend on how productive workers are in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. The newly formed 16th Finance Commission will have the task of investing in workers in these states to ensure the well-being of all Indians in the future.
Conclusion
Addressing these difficult challenges needs input from various experts like population researchers, economists, social scientists, and government policy specialists. Creating a special committee to study the challenges brought about by changes in population alongside the 16th Finance Commission will help guide government spending decisions, leading to positive effects on priorities.