Context: The targeted killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders have increased the possibility of all-out war in West Asia to perhaps its highest level since the October 7 attacks on Israel.
Overview:
- Hamas killed around 1,200 Israelis and took 250 hostage on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s response with air strikes and ground operations is estimated to have killed more than 40,000 people in Gaza so far.
- Yet, the recent deaths of three key figures may have more profound implications.

Key figures and assassinations:
- Fuad Shukr: A senior Hezbollah commander, was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Israel claimed Shukr was responsible for a rocket attack on Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.
- Ismail Haniyeh: The head of Hamas' political bureau, was killed in Tehran. This act was particularly provocative, occurring on Iranian soil.
- Mohammed Deif: He was reportedly killed in Gaza
Objectives of Israel
1. Demonstration of intent:
- These targeted killings are seen as a huge victory for Israel, which had vowed revenge for the October 7 attacks, a catastrophic failure of its intelligence, operations, and response mechanisms.
- Its Swords of Iron military offensive in Gaza had the twin objectives of destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages.
- By killing key figures, Israel can claim to have substantially achieved the target of neutralising Hamas.
- Israel seeks to restore its strategic credibility and reputational damage of Mossad.
2. Message to Iran:
- By targeting the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, both groups are part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ sponsored by Iran, Israel has redrawn the red lines of the conflict in West Asia.
- The possibility of all-out war in the region is perhaps the highest now since the October 7 attacks.
- In April, Israel had previously targeted Iranian military officials in Syria, leading to a retaliatory aerial attack from Tehran. The latest strikes against Iranian-affiliated leaders further illustrate Israel’s readiness to confront Iranian interests directly, even within Iranian territory.
- Israel aims to expose the vulnerabilities of Iran’s intelligence and security establishment in much the same way as the Hamas attack had exposed and embarrassed the Israelis.
- Israel has sent the message that Iran’s security umbrella cannot protect the leaders of Hamas.
Potential Iranian responses
While the three targeted assassinations and Israel’s military response in Gaza is intended to re-establish its deterrence against Iran and its proxies, Tehran cannot be expected to take it lying down.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Pezeshkian have vowed revenge. There are three scenarios on the possible Iranian response.
1. Direct retaliation:
- Iran may opt to strike Israeli targets within Israeli territory, similar to the aerial attacks of April. Such a response would heighten regional tensions and could escalate the conflict further.
2. Coordinated attacks:
- Tehran might collaborate with its allies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, to launch coordinated assaults on Israeli targets. This strategy could increase the scope and scale of the conflict, potentially drawing in more regional actors.
3. Indirect targeting:
- Another possibility is for Iran to target Israeli officials in third countries, similar to the 2012 attack on an Israeli diplomat’s wife in New Delhi. This approach could complicate diplomatic relations and pose security challenges internationally.
Implications for India
1. Impact on regional stability:
- About 9 million Indian nationals live and work in the region. They are the largest source of remittances to India. The first two scenarios could trigger a broader conflict, affecting the safety of Indians in West Asia.
- The potential disruption of energy supplies, given that two-thirds of India’s crude oil and natural gas imports come from this region, would also have significant economic implications.
2. Diplomatic and security challenges:
- India faces a difficult diplomatic balancing act. India has so far made no statements on the volatile situation. New Delhi, which has friends across the region, does not want to get drawn into regional rivalries.
- The country has issued travel advisories for Israel and Lebanon, and airlines have adjusted their routes to avoid the region.
- Other countries in the region have launched efforts to de-escalate the situation. Efforts of these regional players, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, to mediate could influence India’s strategy.










