Context – Wayanad landslides
Post-facto analyses of deadly disasters — like the landslides in Wayanad, Kerala, reminds us of the fact that broad warnings of risks can hardly be translated to specific actions.
For example, declaring whole of the western ghats to be landslide vulnerable won’t get rid of extreme events induced by climate change anytime soon.
Some landslides will occur anyway even if the Ghats enjoy the fullest protections from human perturbations because the risk is never zero.
Therefore predictions of disaster management and mitigation becomes important.
- Need for long-term climate risk outlooks: extending up to a decade or more.
- Improving accuracy of predictive models by understanding local factors that exacerbate climate effects. The relationship between local events and global warming complicates predictions. Local amplifiers often intensify the effects of distant climate drivers.
- Case Study - Coastal Influence on heavy rain in Wayanad: Coastal sea surface temperatures significantly influence heavy rain along India’s west coast. As monsoon winds approach the Western Ghats, coastal waters warm up, leading to increased rainfall.
- Importance of Location-Specific Measures: such as preserving biodiversity, can help mitigate disaster risks.
- Role of Governments and Monitoring: National and local governments must collaborate to monitor, report, and verify risks, and these efforts must be reflected in budgetary provisions.
- Weather-Proofing the Country: Disaster mitigation is essential to making the country more resilient to climate change. Establishing a robust data network to map local extreme event amplifiers is urgently needed.