Context: The recent fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in the Gulf region has raised challenges in managing the Indian Foreign policy in already strained Middle-East conditions.
Relevance of the topic:
Prelims: Location and map based questions.
Mains: Detailed analysis of Indian Middle-East policy amidst the emerging challenges in the region.
Major Highlights:
- The Prime Minister of India is anticipating a visit to Kuwait in December 2024. He will become the first PM to visit Kuwait in the last four decades.
- The visit to Kuwait came under the time when Gulf region is facing various issues:
- Houthi rebellion in Yemen
- Fall of regime in Syria
- War between Israel and Palestine
- Financial crisis in Lebanon.
Importance of Middle East for India:
The Middle East is vital for India in a multidimensional manner, shaping its economic, political, and strategic engagements. Key areas include:
- Energy Security: About 60% of the energy imports are dependent on the imports from the Middle-East region. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq are critical suppliers, ensuring India's energy security and economic stability.
- Trade and Investments: Nations like UAE and Saudi Arabia are major trading partner nations of India. Example: UAE being 3rd largest trading partner of India.
- Diaspora and Remittances: India receives about 18% of its remittances from nations like UAE. Also, the Middle-East remains a prime destination for Indian migrants.
- Geopolitical Engagement: India has regional partnerships with the organisations like Gulf Cooperation Council and other multilateral partnerships like I2U2
- Strategic Cooperation: India enjoys defence and counter-terrorism ties with nations like Saudi Arabia and UAE. Example: Desert Eagle military exercise between India and UAE.
- Maritime trade security: Middle East proximity to the choke points like Strait of Hurmouz and Bab El Mandeb makes harmonisation of relations crucial to maintain maritime trade.
- Cultural and Religious Ties: India hosts the second largest muslim population in the world that finds historical ties and religious relations with the Middle East.
- Regional Stability: India shares relations with conflicting parties in the Middle East like Israel, Iran, Palestine etc,. a stable region will promote Indian diverse interests in these nations.
- Technology and Innovation: India has a keen interest to learn from the Middle East especially in the field of dry land agriculture and water efficiency enhancement innovations making it crucial to maintain harmonious relations with the Gulf.
Key initiatives by India to bolster ties with the Middle East:
- India Middle East-European Economic Corridor to enhance the connectivity in the region fostering trade.
- Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA): with UAE to promote hassle free trade and investment. Along with, free human resource movement between the nations.
- Strategic Partnerships: Elevated ties with UAE, Saudi, and Oman by promoting multidimensionality in partnership waging from energy to security and counter-terrorism.
- I2U2 Initiative: A collaborative grouping of India, Israel, UAE, and the USA, focusing on food security, energy, and infrastructure projects in the Middle East and beyond.
- India-Arab Partnership Summit: Promotes economic and cultural cooperation with the Arab League, emphasizing trade, investment, and technology transfer.
- Project Mausam to promote cultural diplomatic ties with the Middle East.
- Diaspora Engagement with schemes like Pravasi Bharatiya Bima Yojana in order to ensure security and foster trust among them.
- Maritime Collaboration by increasing the naval presence in key waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and gaining naval access to the posts of nations like Oman.
Challenges faced by India to maintain relations:
- Geopolitical Rivalries: Balancing relations between rival blocs, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, or Israel and Palestine, poses a diplomatic challenge. India's neutrality may occasionally strain relations with specific partners.
- Energy Transition: As the world shifts towards renewable energy, India’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas could reduce its influence in the region.
- Labour Issues: Continuous concerns about exploitative labour norms in Middle East nations like Saudi Arabia and UAE acts as a bone of contention between the harmonious relations between the nations. Example:- Kafala system in Saudi Arabia poses concerns to the labour rights and human rights among Indian migrant workers in Saudi.
- Regional Instability: Ongoing conflicts, such as in Yemen and Syria, and tensions involving Iran, poses challenges to the Indian diplomatic efforts in balancing the relations with conflicting parties. .
- Challenge from China as a contending power in the region, trying to gain the mileage by acquiring naval bases. Example: Djibouti naval base of China.
- Diaspora Challenges: Risk of job loss to Indians due to protectionism in Middle East Example 'Saudization’ in Saudi Arabia to promote locals participation in the economy.
- Terrorism and Extremism threats due to the rise of neo-ISIS factions in the region.
- Maritime Security: Instability in key maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz due to the Houthi rebel attack on naval vessels. .
- Economic Volatility: Fluctuations in oil prices and economic instability in the Gulf due to global factors could adversely affect remittances and trade.
- Cultural Sensitivities like criticism by Middle East nations on the internal matters of India. Example:- Nupur Sharma remarks on Islam.
Way Forward for India-Middle East Relations:
- Energy Diversification by shifting from crude oil to alternate renewable sources like solar and hydrogen fuel.
- Boost Trade by leveraging the potential of Indian Agriculture products demand in the Middle East.
- Diaspora Welfare by ensuring labor rights by bilateral dialogues and initiatives like Madad Portal for diaspora.
- Balancing diplomatic relations with nations using De-hyphenation policy in international relations.
- Maritime Security by ensuring safe passage of trade vessels. Example: Sagar initiative of Coast guard and India Navy
- Cultural Diplomacy by promoting cultural goodwill Example: BAPS temple in UAE.
Conclusion: The Middle East is a key region of interest for Indian diplomacy and international relations due to its energy, security, trade, and connectivity aspects. Indian policy towards the Middle-East should be balanced by upholding regional interest and mutual respect.