Middle East Region

India Qatar elevate ties to Strategic Partnership

Context: The Amir of the State of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, made a state visit to India in February, 2025. During this visit, India and Qatar elevated their bilateral relations to a strategic partnership to deepen cooperation in trade, energy, investment, security and international forums. 

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Bilateral Relations: India-Qatar. 

Key Highlights of India-Qatar Strategic Partnership

  • Strategic Partnership Agreement:
    • India and Qatar have elevated their bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership. This brings Qatar on par with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait, all of which have strategic partnerships with India. 
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  • Economic Cooperation and Investment:
    • Qatar has committed to invest USD 10 billion in India, with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) planning to open an office in India. 
    • India is Qatar’s second largest trading partner, with bilateral trade of about $14 billion in 2024. The two countries have set a target to double bilateral trade to $28 billion by 2030. 
    • The countries have agreed to explore an India-Qatar Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). 
    • The countries have signed a revised Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement and five MoUs on economic collaboration, youth and sports, archives and investments.
    • Both sides are exploring opportunities to increase investments in infrastructure, technology, manufacturing, food security, logistics, hospitality and other areas of mutual interest. 
  • Energy Partnership:
    • India and Qatar are deepening their energy partnership through trade and mutual investments. Qatar is the largest supplier of LNG to India, accounting for over 48% of India's global LNG imports. 
    • An agreement between Qatar Energy and Petronet LNG Limited ensures the supply of 7.5 million metric tonnes per annum of LNG to India for 20 years starting in 2028.
  • Bilateral Mechanisms:
    • The establishment of two Joint Ministerial Commissions, at the level of Foreign Ministers and Ministers of Commerce and Industry, to strengthen cooperation has also taken place.
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Other Key Outcomes

  • Extension of the Indian e-Visa facility for Qatari nationals.
  • India and Qatar have agreed to celebrate a Year of Culture, Friendship, and Sports in the near future. 
  • Operationalisation of India's UPI at Qatar National Bank (QNB) Point of Sales in Qatar.
  • Expansion of Qatar National Bank's presence in India by setting up an office in the GIFT City.

Areas of Discussion

  • Middle East Peace Process: Discussions between the two leaders also included the Middle East peace process, with both sides appreciating each other's positions on the Israel-Hamas issue. 
  • Terrorism: They also unequivocally condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, agreeing to cooperate in combating this menace through bilateral and multilateral mechanisms.
  • UN reforms: Both leaders emphasised the importance of a reformed and effective multilateral system, centered on a UN reflective of contemporary realities, as a key factor in tackling global challenges.

Qatar is a key strategic partner for India due to its geopolitical location, economic potential, energy resources, and a large Indian diaspora. 

Trump’s Gaza Plan and Role of Saudi Arabia

Context: US President Donald Trump's plan to depopulate Gaza and the crucial role of Saudi Arabia is likely to expand the geopolitical nuances in the Middle-East region.

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Implication of Gaza plan on the region and on India. 

About Trump’s Gaza plan: 

  • Depopulation of the region: Trump has proposed to relocate the residents of Gaza to Egypt and Jordan to redraw the demography from scratch.
  • Tourist hub: The Plan includes the development of Gaza as the ‘riviera of the world’ by redeveloping the infrastructure of the region as the tourist hub for the globe.
  • Gaining critical position in IMEC: The US by this plan will gain a critical geographical position in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic corridor to foster the trade and diplomatic relations.
  • Consolidating position: The plan is likely to enhance the US presence in the region and will help the US in leveraging the control over the regional powers like Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran. 
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Possible geopolitical reconfiguration in the West Asia with Plan

  • Promoting Israel’s invincibility: The possible plan is likely to reiterate the idea of invincibility of Israel in the region.
  • Projecting weak Iran’s influence: The plan will reduce Iran's influence in the region and will reduce the ability of Iran to revive its alliances like Hezbollah and Hamas in the region, giving it a strategic setback.
  • Siphoning off the Two-State idea: The two-state solution, often given with regard to Israel and Palestine, will be discarded if the plan gets acceptance from the regional powers like Saudi Arabia.

Role of Saudi Arabia in Expanding the Canvas

  • Gaining legitimacy: Saudi Arabia as the crucial Islamic power in the region can help in providing legitimacy to the plan by normalising ties with Israel.
    • Saudi Arabia might follow in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain which signed Abraham Accords in 2020 and normalised ties with Israel. 
  • Projected as leader: Saudi Arabia’s projection as the leader of the Arab and Islamic world making it a central actor in regional diplomacy.
  • Oil market stabiliser: The war-led inflation requires stability in the oil market. Saudi can help in achieving this by boosting oil supply in the market by increasing the production of the oil.
    • Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill” energy policy pushes Saudi away from its traditional policy of cutting oil production, and promotes oil production to lower oil prices in the global market. 
  • Key link between the US and China: Saudi Arabia has been shifting from the exclusive US ally to a more diversified strategy, engaging with China and Russia. Therefore, Saudi Arabia can become a key link for the negotiations between China and the US.
    • Vision 2030 of Saudi Arabia is channelising investment from both the US and China. 
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Constraints in Saudi Arabia Role fulfillment

  • Regional instability: Saudi Arabia itself is plagued from the regional instability due to the Kurd and Yemen rebellion, diverting the resources away from the larger goal.
  • Forces policy inversion: Saudi is planning to sway away from the oil led economy to a multi-dimensional sustainable economy under Vision 2030 plan. But, the US energy policy of “Drill, baby, drill” is obstructing the climate change and sustainable economy targets of Saudi Arabia.
  • Economic loss: The US policy to encourage Saudi to increase oil production in the global market will likely impact Saudi Arabia’s economic and profit prospects negatively. 

Impacts on India

  • Diplomatic challenge: The situation of new plans and long term humanitarian challenges in the region will pose a tug-of-war challenge to Indian diplomacy. It will be tough to balance humanitarian interests and cordial relations with the US & Israel.
  • Pressure from US: The possible oil price cuts by Saudi interventions will make India susceptible to the pressure from the US to cut the Russian oil imports. This may lead to the challenge in balancing relations with Russia.
  • Halting investments: There is a risk of halt on the investments of India in Iran because of the direct involvement and tangible partnership of the US in IMEC through Gaza. This will invite pressure to suspend the infrastructure development of Chabahar port, Iran.
    • The US has suspended the concessions from sanctions on Indian investments in Iran.

Trump's Gaza proposal faces strong resistance from regional players, humanitarian groups, and international allies. While Trump and Netanyahu may push for Saudi-Israel ties normalisation, Saudi’s insistence on Palestinian statehood has reshaped the post-Gaza diplomatic landscape, making it a decisive force in regional geopolitics. 

Emerging threats in Gulf of Aden and Red Sea

Context: Recently, the Defence Minister of India raised concerns over emerging threats in Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, emphasising on capacity building of the Navy.

Relevance of the Topic- Mains: Detailed questions on threats to Indian maritime security in the Indian ocean. 

Potential threats in Gulf of Aden and Red Sea

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Threats with ExamplesImpacts on India 
Maritime attack: Armed groups, particularly the Houthi rebels in Yemen have been targeting vessels.

E.g., In November 2022, Houthi rebels targeted commercial tankers in the Red sea.		These attacks either force Indian vessels to take a long route through the Cape of Good Hope or lead to hike in vessel insurance premium making shipping operation expensive.
Piracy: Notorious piracy of vessels in Somalian waters continues to harass ships, leading to extortion.

E.g., Indian ship MV Albedo case. 		Piracy threatens Indian crew’s safety and increases cost of shipping leading to potential for significant economic loss.
Geopolitical tensions: Presence of multiple naval forces near Gulf of Aden make it susceptible to regional instability.

E.g., Djibouti Naval Base of China. 		Such militarisation challenges India’s aspirations to maintain a balance of power and secure its trade interests.
Smuggling activities: The region serves as a transit point for illegal arms, drugs, and human trafficking.

E.g., Iran-backed armed smuggling route through the Gulf of Aden to support Houthis.		Such activities may increase the instability in the region impacting diaspora and trade interests. 
Terrorism: Terrorist groups operating in regions like Al-Qaeda threaten regional security.

E.g., USS Cole Bombing case by terrorist groups.		Indian vessels could become collateral damage or direct targets, leading to human and economic losses.
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Significance of West Indian Ocean region (WIOR) for India

  • Energy security: 
    • Over 60% of India’s oil imports pass through the West Indian Ocean region, making it critical to energy security.
    • Oil and Mineral resources- make the region critical for energy security.
      • Huge deposits of natural gas in the region (Gulf Region)
      • Abundance of deep-sea minerals like cobalt and nickel.  
  • Trade continuity: The Gulf of Aden and Red Sea are present near the major choke points named Bab-el Mandeb and Suez canal, making it critical for connectivity of India to Europe.
  • National security: The region is crucial for securing the Indian maritime border and reducing threats like 26/11 attacks via maritime route.
  • Geopolitical significance: The region is key to establishing harmonious relations with nations like Yemen, Djibouti, and Oman.
  • Strategic Interests: India seeks access to key facilities (Duqm port in Oman ) in WIOR to counter China’s growing influence (military base in Djibouti). 
  • Diaspora safety: Indian diaspora especially the labour and medical staff is deployed in Middle-east nations. Gulf of Aden and Red Sea stability will enhance the safety of the diaspora.
  • Disaster Management: WIOR is prone to frequent cyclones and oil spills, management of which requires cooperation with other WIOR littoral countries.   

Way Forward

  • Enhancing Naval presence: India should focus on increasing naval presence in the region. India can try collaborative efforts with the nations in the region. E.g., Daqm port of Oman.
  • Capacity building of Navy: India should add frigates and caveats to the Navy to secure the region. Also, collaboration should be cond between Coast Guard and Indian Navy. E.g., SAGAR exercise between Navy and Coast Guard. 
  • International collaboration: India should make a common center for monitoring the region by bringing nations together over maritime security. E.g., Indian Ocean Maritime symposium to collaborate over maritime security and regional growth. 
  • Collaborative monitoring: A common monitoring of the region along with all the stakeholders to foster the synchronisation among naval powers. E.g., Information Fusion Center- Indian Ocean Region.

By adopting a multifaceted approach that combines military readiness, diplomatic initiatives, and international cooperation, India can effectively address the evolving threats in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, ensuring the security of its maritime interests.

Israel-Hamas Peace Deal

Context: Recently, a cease-fire agreement — mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States — had been signed between Hamas and Israel to pause fighting in Gaza and begin a series of steps to end the war.

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Location based question in Prelims.

Mains: Developments in the Middle-East and their impacts on India.

Major Highlights of the deal

  • Mediation: Deal is broken by international cooperation and mediation of Qatar, Israel and the United States of America.
  • Key components of the deal: 
    • Ceasefire: Deal has proposed a six-week ceasefire for allowing the Israeli forces withdrawal from Gaza strip. 
    • Withdrawal from Philadelphia corridor: The Israeli forces have agreed to withdraw from the narrow strip called Philadelphia corridor to maintain trust among parties.
    • Hostage and Prisoner exchange: Deal plans for the exchange of Israeli hostages and prisoners of Palestine.
    • Humanitarian aid: Facilitation of increased humanitarian assistance to Gaza, addressing the dire needs of the civilian population affected by the conflict. 
    • De-escalation measures: Israel has agreed to pause its military offensives in Gaza, while Hamas is expected to cease rocket attacks into Israeli territory.
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Significance of deal for various stakeholders

  • Gaza: The deal offers a respite for civilians, many of whom have endured immense suffering due to airstrikes, displacement, and lack of basic necessities.
  • Israel: The return of hostages is a significant achievement for the Israeli government, which has faced domestic pressure to secure their release.
  • Region: The deal will lead to peace in the region by reducing chances of escalation between Iran and Israel. 

Significance of deal for India

  • Connectivity: The peace deal will allow India to push India-Middle-East-European corridor for improved connectivity with Europe bypassing dependence on Suez Canal.
  • Diaspora safety: Indian workers and medical staff are deployed in Israel, the ceasefire will ensure their safety and security.
  • Reducing diplomatic burden: The peace deal will provide India a free hand to deal with Iran and progress with the Chabahar Port project.
  • Maritime safety: The deal will suppress the regional adversaries like Houthi rebels ensuring safety of the Indian vessels through the Red Sea.
  • Market stability: The peace deal will reduce the turbulence in the stock market of India leading to stable investments in India.
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Challenges in the implementation of the deal

  • Trust deficit: There is a high trust deficit among the parties of deal. This fragility may lead to future conflict among the region.
  • Doubtful intentions of Hamas: The operations of Hamas are like a terrorist organisation that can materialise the conflict devastation for further recruitment and funding.
  • Internal dynamics: People of Israel are skeptical about the implementation of the deal, particularly the hardline factions in Israel have opposed the deal.

Way Forward

  • Addressing core issue: The Israel Hamas conflict is rooted in territorial dispute. Proper implementation of a Two-state solution can resolve the issue in a more profound manner.
  • Independent monitoring: The teams of ceasefire deal need to be monitored by independent agencies like the UN Peacekeeping Force.
  • Promoting grassroots engagement: The people to people negotiations and ties need to be promoted. E.g., Israel can offer a Goodwill gesture humanitarian aid for Gaza strip.

Conclusion: While the ceasefire deal is a positive development, it is a temporary solution. Long-term peace requires addressing underlying grievances, building mutual trust, and sustained international engagement. A comprehensive, inclusive, and pragmatic approach is essential to achieving a durable resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Houthi Rebels becoming keystone of Iran's 'Axis of Resistance’

Context: With the end of Bashar-al-Assad's regime in Syria, the Houthi rebels have gained importance in Iran's axis of resistance against the US and Israel.

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Organisations and location based questions from the middle east.

Mains: Impact of middle-east tensions on India.

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What is the Axis of Resistance?

  • The 'Axis of the Resistance’ refers to the political and military alliances led by Iran and is composed of state and non-state actors in the Middle-East. 
  • The axis comprises Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian armed forces, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, certain militias in Iraq, and Houthi forces in Yemen. 
  • Key goals of Alliance:
    • Oppose Israel: The central ideology of the group is to oppose Israel advances in Gaza and help Palestine to gain control over the territory. 
    • Anti-American: The alliance is against the US military presence and its cultural influence in the middle east. Example: Islamic revolution in Iran demonstrated anti-Americanism. 
    • Regional Dominance: Axis of resistance focus on the dominance of the Shia sect of Islam, predominantly by creating a 'Shia crescent’ including Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. 
    • Resistance to Sunni powers: The alliance is focused against the Sunni-majority states including Saudi Arabia, and UAE as they are aligned with the US. 
  • Means and modes used to sustain Ideology:
    • Military campaigns as members are actively involved in several conflicts like Syrian civil war, Iraq fight against ISIS and Yemen's civil war. 
    • Proxy warfare by helping non-state actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). 
    • Diplomatic alliance- Axis is focused to counter USA by hand holding alliance with Russia and China for weapons and logistical support. 
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About Houthi Rebels

  • Houthis, originally known as Ansar Allah (i.e. supporters of God) are predominantly Shia Muslims and a political military group of Yemen. 
  • The group is focused on opposing the USA and Israel. Also, they oppose Saudi Arabia and UAE to favour Sunni sects of Islam. 

Role of Houthis in Axis of Resistance

  • Opposing US allies: The Houthis attack Saudi Arabia from the Yemen border as it is a US ally in the region. 
  • Block trade: Location of Houthi is at a crucial choke point i.e., Bal el-Mandeb strait allows them to attack the vessels with short range rockets leading to damage or rise in vessel insurance premium, disrupting trade. 
  • Symbol of resistance: Houthis continue terrorist attacks on Saudi Arabia and US supported Yemen government to show resistance. 
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Impact on India due to these regional dynamics:

  • Impacting energy security: Houthi attack on vessels can destabilise the Indian supply of crude oil via Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea. 
  • Expensive Maritime trade: Indian vessels due to attack by Houthis either take the route of Cape of Good Hope or need to pay heavy premium on vessel insurances. Both make maritime trade expensive for India. 
  • Safety of India Diaspora: Any escalation in the situation leading to war like situation can risk the safety of 2.5 Million Indians in Saudi Arabia. 
  • Geopolitical Challenge: Violence and continuous proxy-war will demean India efforts to balance relations with the US and Iran. 
  • Spillover effect: In case of escalation the tensions may spill to the Horn of Africa making a new challenge to balance relations with Djibouti and Somalia. 

What should be India's course of action in these complicated situations?

  • India should follow a pragmatic approach with a balance of Idealism containing values like humanity, peace and growth of the region. 
  • India needs to strengthen trade ties with the Middle East, continuously engage with Iran, ensure diaspora security, build a strong naval presence in the Indian Ocean and diversify the energy basket to sail over the tides of challenges in the region. 

India's Diplomatic Engagement in Middle East

Context: The recent fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in the Gulf region has raised challenges in managing the Indian Foreign policy in already strained Middle-East conditions. 

Relevance of the topic:

Prelims: Location and map based questions.

Mains: Detailed analysis of Indian Middle-East policy amidst the emerging challenges in the region. 

Major Highlights:

  • The Prime Minister of India is anticipating a visit to Kuwait in December 2024. He will become the first PM to visit Kuwait in the last four decades. 
  • The visit to Kuwait came under the time when Gulf region is facing various issues:
    • Houthi rebellion in Yemen
    • Fall of regime in Syria
    • War between Israel and Palestine
    • Financial crisis in Lebanon.
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Importance of Middle East for India:

The Middle East is vital for India in a multidimensional manner, shaping its economic, political, and strategic engagements. Key areas include:

  1. Energy Security: About 60% of the energy imports are dependent on the imports from the Middle-East region. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq are critical suppliers, ensuring India's energy security and economic stability.
  2. Trade and Investments: Nations like UAE and Saudi Arabia are major trading partner nations of India. Example: UAE being 3rd largest trading partner of India.
  3. Diaspora and Remittances: India receives about 18% of its remittances from nations like UAE. Also, the Middle-East remains a prime destination for Indian migrants. 
  4. Geopolitical Engagement: India has regional partnerships with the organisations like Gulf Cooperation Council and other multilateral partnerships like I2U2
  5. Strategic Cooperation: India enjoys defence and counter-terrorism ties with nations like Saudi Arabia and UAE. Example: Desert Eagle military exercise between India and UAE. 
  6. Maritime trade security: Middle East proximity to the choke points like Strait of Hurmouz and Bab El Mandeb makes harmonisation of relations crucial to maintain maritime trade. 
  7. Cultural and Religious Ties: India hosts the second largest muslim population in the world that finds historical ties and religious relations with the Middle East. 
  8. Regional Stability: India shares relations with conflicting parties in the Middle East like Israel, Iran, Palestine etc,. a stable region will promote Indian diverse interests in these nations. 
  9. Technology and Innovation: India has a keen interest to learn from the Middle East especially in the field of dry land agriculture and water efficiency enhancement innovations making it crucial to maintain harmonious relations with the Gulf. 

Key initiatives by India to bolster ties with the Middle East:

  • India Middle East-European Economic Corridor to enhance the connectivity in the region fostering trade. 
  • Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA): with UAE to promote hassle free trade and investment. Along with, free human resource movement between the nations. 
  • Strategic Partnerships: Elevated ties with UAE, Saudi, and Oman by promoting multidimensionality in partnership waging from energy to security and counter-terrorism.
  • I2U2 Initiative: A collaborative grouping of India, Israel, UAE, and the USA, focusing on food security, energy, and infrastructure projects in the Middle East and beyond.
  • India-Arab Partnership Summit: Promotes economic and cultural cooperation with the Arab League, emphasizing trade, investment, and technology transfer.
  • Project Mausam to promote cultural diplomatic ties with the Middle East. 
  • Diaspora Engagement with schemes like Pravasi Bharatiya Bima Yojana in order to ensure security and foster trust among them. 
  • Maritime Collaboration by increasing the naval presence in key waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and gaining naval access to the posts of nations like Oman.

Challenges faced by India to maintain relations: 

  • Geopolitical Rivalries: Balancing relations between rival blocs, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, or Israel and Palestine, poses a diplomatic challenge. India's neutrality may occasionally strain relations with specific partners.
  • Energy Transition: As the world shifts towards renewable energy, India’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas could reduce its influence in the region.
  • Labour Issues: Continuous concerns about exploitative labour norms in Middle East nations like Saudi Arabia and UAE acts as a bone of contention between the harmonious relations between the nations.  Example:- Kafala system in Saudi Arabia poses concerns to the labour rights and human rights among Indian migrant workers in Saudi.  
  • Regional Instability: Ongoing conflicts, such as in Yemen and Syria, and tensions involving Iran, poses challenges to the Indian diplomatic efforts in balancing the relations with conflicting parties. .
  • Challenge from China as a contending power in the region, trying to gain the mileage by acquiring naval bases. Example: Djibouti naval base of China. 
  • Diaspora Challenges: Risk of job loss to Indians due to protectionism in Middle East Example 'Saudization’ in Saudi Arabia to promote locals participation in the economy. 
  • Terrorism and Extremism threats due to the rise of neo-ISIS factions in the region. 
  • Maritime Security: Instability in key maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz due to the Houthi rebel attack on naval vessels. . 
  • Economic Volatility: Fluctuations in oil prices and economic instability in the Gulf due to global factors could adversely affect remittances and trade.
  • Cultural Sensitivities like criticism by Middle East nations on the internal matters of India. Example:- Nupur Sharma remarks on Islam. 
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Way Forward for India-Middle East Relations:

  • Energy Diversification by shifting from crude oil to alternate renewable sources like solar and hydrogen fuel. 
  • Boost Trade by leveraging the potential of Indian Agriculture products demand in the Middle East. 
  • Diaspora Welfare by ensuring labor rights by bilateral dialogues and initiatives like Madad Portal for diaspora. 
  • Balancing diplomatic relations with nations using De-hyphenation policy in international relations.
  • Maritime Security by ensuring safe passage of trade vessels. Example: Sagar initiative of Coast guard and India Navy
  • Cultural Diplomacy by promoting cultural goodwill Example: BAPS temple in UAE. 

Conclusion: The Middle East is a key region of interest for Indian diplomacy and international relations due to its energy, security, trade, and connectivity aspects. Indian policy towards the Middle-East should be balanced by upholding regional interest and mutual respect. 

Desert Cyclone: India-UAE joint military exercise between UAE & India

Context: 45 personnel from the UAE Land Forces contingent arrived in India to participate in 1st edition of India-UAE Joint Military Exercise 'Desert Cyclone'.

About Desert Cyclone

  • It is a bilateral military (army) exercise between UAE Land forces and India's Military.
  • The bilateral exercise will take place from 2nd to 15th January 2024 in Mahajan, Rajasthan.
  • 2024 Desert Cyclone exercise will be the first edition of bilateral military exercise between India and UAE.

Focus areas during Desert Cyclone Exercise

  • Enhance interoperability in sub-conventional operations including Fighting in Built-up area in desert/semi-desert terrain under Chapter VII of UN Charter on Peacekeeping operations.
  • Enhance cooperation and interoperability between both India and UAE during Peacekeeping Operations.
  • Establishment of a Joint Surveillance Centre, Cordon and Search Operation, Domination of Built-up Area and Heliborne Operations.
  • Foster collaborative partnership and help in sharing best practices between two sides.
  • Strengthening bonds of friendship and trust between India and UAE.

India- Middle East- Europe Economic Corridor

Context: Days after the launch of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday described Saudi Arabia as “one of the most important strategic partners of India”.

The exchange between the two sides took place during the state visit of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia when they agreed to set up a joint task force to fast-track the West Coast refinery project.

  • Further PM Modi and Prince Bin Salman also co-chaired the first meeting of the India-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council (SPC)
  • The discussion focused on defence, energy, security, education, technology, transportation, healthcare, tourism and culture, space, and semiconductors as areas of possible cooperation.
  • The new thing that has come up is that the two sides agreed to set up a joint task force to help in identifying and channelising the $100 billion investment which was actually promised by the Saudi side. Earlier Crown Prince Bin Salman had visited India in February 2019 when Saudi Arabia had pledged to invest $100 billion and the investment into the energy project.
  • Delhi and Riyadh would upgrade energy ties to “comprehensive energy partnership”

About India-Middle East- Europe Corridor:

  • The project includes India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the European Union, France, Italy, Germany and the US.
  • It will be a major medium of economic integration between India, West Asia and Europe and  will give a new direction to connectivity and sustainable development of entire world.
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What is the project?

  • The rail and shipping corridor is part of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment (PGII) — a collaborative effort by G7 nations to fund infrastructure projects in developing nations. PGII is considered to be the bloc’s counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
  • The corridor will include a rail link as well as an electricity cable, a hydrogen pipeline and a high-speed data cable
  • The project is thus duped as “a green and digital bridge across continents and civilizations.”

Why is the project being proposed?

  • First, it would increase prosperity among the countries involved through an increased flow of energy and digital communications. 
  • Second, the project would help deal with the lack of infrastructure needed for growth in lower- and middle-income nations. 
  • Third, it could help “turn the temperature down” on “turbulence and insecurity” coming out of the Middle East
  • Lastly, the project could be seen as Biden’s attempt to further strengthen the G20 group to counter the dominance of China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Revamping Middle East

Context: The weekend meeting in Riyadh between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the national security advisers of the US, UAE, and India underlines the growing strategic convergence between Delhi and Washington in the Gulf. It also highlights India’s new possibilities in the Arabian Peninsula.

New Development in the Middle East

The new India-US warmth on the Gulf is a major departure from the traditional approaches to the Middle East in both India and the US. 

  • In India, one of the entrenched principles of the Nehruvian foreign policy was the proposition that Delhi must either oppose Washington or keep its distance from it in the Middle East. This self-imposed ideological taboo was broken with the formation of a four-nation grouping  unveiled in October 2021 called I2U2 that brought the US, India, Israel, and the UAE together.
  • It is too understand that joining hands with the US was not the only taboo that current foreign policy dispensation discarded. It also rejected the notion that India can’t be visibly friendly to Israel. 
  • The move has also transformed India’s uneasy relations with the two Arabian kingdoms, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, into solid strategic partnerships. As India is now doubling down with a new quadrilateral with the US, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
  • Emerging Arabia opens enormous new possibilities for India’s economic growth and Delhi’s productive involvement in promoting connectivity and security within Arabia and between it and the abutting regions including Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean and the Subcontinent. 
  • The engagement would also help India overcome the dangerous forces of violent religious extremism within the Subcontinent. The new opportunities in Arabia and the emerging possibilities for partnership with the US and the West position India to rapidly elevate its own standing in the region.
  • Further the US is not the only Western power that India is beginning to work with in the Gulf. France has emerged as an important partner in the Gulf and the Western Indian Ocean. India now has a trilateral dialogue with Abu Dhabi and Paris
  • It is also to understand that it is not only India that  is shedding its “anti-Western” lens in the Middle East, the US is leading the West to discard its pro-Pakistan bias in thinking about the relationship between the Subcontinent and the Gulf. Under Nehruvian foreign policy India withdrew from its historic geopolitical role in the Middle East, Pakistan became the lynchpin of the Anglo-American strategy to secure the “wells of (oil) power” in the Gulf.
  • However Pakistan’s continuing strategic decline makes it a lot less relevant to the changing geopolitics of the Gulf. Once viewed as a moderate Muslim nation with prospects for economic growth, it has now locked itself into a self-made trap of violent religious extremism and its political elite is utterly unprepared to lift the nation economically.
  • Pakistan has drifted too close to China. As the US-China confrontation sharpens, Islamabad is tempted to align with China and Russia in the region and the scholars believe that the current government might prefer to boost its “all-weather partnership” with Beijing.

Understanding the Changing Regional Dynamics

  • The US is not about to abandon the Middle East. But it certainly is recalibrating its regional strategy.
  • US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan highlighted several elements of the new US approach. Viewed from Delhi, two of them stand out. 
  • One was about building new partnerships, including with Delhi 
  • Second was about the integration of the Arabian Peninsula into India and the world. 
  • It is also about the rising power of the Arabian Peninsula, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Gulf kingdoms have accumulated massive financial capital and embarked on an ambitious economic transformation that will reduce their dependence on oil over the long term. 
  • They have also begun to diversify their strategic partnerships, develop nationalism rather than religion as the political foundation for their states, promote religious tolerance at home, and initiate social reform.

Conclusion

The momentous change in intra-regional and international relations of the Arabian Peninsula, India has inevitably become part of the new regional calculus. Seizing the new strategic opportunities for India in the Gulf would, however, involve the long overdue modernisation of Delhi’s strategic discourse on the Gulf and a conscious effort to change the outdated popular narratives on the Arabian Peninsula.

Read also: New proposed project, benefits and about I2U2 visit

Saudi Arabia agrees to join SCO as a dialogue partner

Context: Saudi Arabia has agreed to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a “dialogue partner”, the latest indication of closer political ties with China.

This is also seen as the step in the direction where Saudi Arabia can later become a full time member of the organization.

The Saudi-Iran Bonhomie

  • By joining the SCO, Saudi Arabia's security relationship with China is currently blossoming. But this relationship is nothing new and stems back decades before. 
  • The ballistic missile sales from China to Saudi Arabia as far back as the 1980s, with reported sales in 1992, 2007 and 2014. In 2021, the kingdom imported sensitive missile technology from the Chinese military to manufacture its own ballistic missiles
  • Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude supplier, and China, the biggest energy consumer, met to discuss their ambitions for an initial agreement of $29.26 billion. 
  • The United States was Riyadh’s largest trading partner at $76 billion in 2012, but now China, India and Japan have surpassed the United States, with which trade was only $29 billion in 2021
  • Saudi Aramco signed two deals to build a major refining and petrochemical complex in China valued in the billions of dollars. 

It can be concluded that Saudi Arabia is seemingly looking to diversify its global partnerships in the same way that it has been diversifying its economy into non-oil sectors and reducing its dependence on one single source. 

Reasons behind blossoming ties

  • The US is distancing itself from the region as it is no longer dependent on energy imports from the region. It has itself emerged as a significant exporter of both oil and gas.
  • The relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia entered a fraught timeline since President Joe Biden came into office
  • Joe Biden announced the end of combat assistance to Riyadh as it led a military campaign in Yemen against the Iran-aligned Ansar Allah, or Houthi, movement.
  • With the Russia-Ukraine war and the energy prices soared over the conflict and ensuing Western sanctions against Moscow, Washington called on Riyadh to increase production, only for the Kingdom to join with Russia and other members of the extended Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) in cutting output.
  • America knows that its survival in the region is very costly, because it will remain under the strikes of the Axis of Resistance, which has grown and gained great influence in last decade, meaning that the American presence is no longer without cost, but rather the price will rise if US stays. 
  • Now reports have emerged that Saudi Arabia has begun talks to restore ties with Syria, which has been suspended from the Arab League since civil war broke out in 2011
  • Iran the long-time rival has joined SCO and has showed interest to join BRICS as well and this has prompted Saudi also, which has been aspiring for the same.

About Shanghai Cooperation Organization

It is a permanent intergovernmental international organisation and was formed in 2001. It is a successor of Shanghai five.

Shanghai Five

Shanghai Five, a political association based on the Agreement on Confidence-Building in the Military Field in the Border Area and the Agreement on the Mutual

Reduction of Armed Forces Members: (SCO - UZBEKISTAN)

Members

NINE countries are currently SCO full members: Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, and Pakistan became full members in 2017 and IRAN in 2023.

SCO decided to admit India & Pakistan at the Ufa summit of 2015.

India participated for the first time as a full member at the recently held 18th Qingdao Summit of SCO in China that was held in 2018.

Working

  • The Heads of State Council (HSC) is the highest decision-making body in the SCO.
  • The secretary general and executive director of RATS is appointed by HSC for 3 Year term.
  • The Heads of Government Council (HGC) meets once per year to discuss a strategy for multilateral cooperation and priority directions within the Organisation's framework.
  • Organisation has two permanent bodies — the Secretariat in Beijing (China) and the Regional Anti- Terrorist Structure (RATS) in Tashkent.
  • SCO RATS: Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) of SCO is a permanent body based in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. 
  • The objective of RATS is based upon the Shanghai Convention on Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism. RATS possess information on terrorist organisations and terrorists.

Saudi – Iran Deal and role of China

The deal highlights a long-standing ally of the US — Saudi Arabia accepted and acknowledged publicly the mediatory role of China, which is locked in a sharpening, all-round confrontation with the US, cannot be regarded as anything less than a major diplomatic setback for Washington

Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to revive two key agreements they concluded during an earlier phase of positive bilateral relations.

One is a 1998 agreement on economic, trade and investment cooperation;

The other is an agreement on internal security cooperation, concluded in 2001, which covered organised crime, terrorism and drug trafficking.

WHY US IS WITHDRAWING ?

  • The US is also distancing itself from the region as it is no longer dependent on energy imports from the region.
  • It has itself emerged as a significant exporter of both oil and gas.
  • America knows that its survival in the region is very costly, because it will remain under the strikes of the Axis of Resistance, which has grown and gained great influence in last decade, meaning that the American presence is no longer without cost, but rather the price will rise if US stays. 
  • The only reason US remains engaged because its major allies are still dependent on energy supplies from the region.
  • US also has a stake in the security of Israel, which also serves as its key regional ally.

AXIS OF RESISTANCE The term Axis of Resistance (also Resistance and Deterrence Axis) commonly refers to a Shiite anti-Israel and anti-Westernalliance between Iran, Syria,  the Lebanese Militant  group Hezbollah and Hamas. 

This Iran-led alliance aims to oppose Western, namely United States and Israel, interests in the region.

FOR INDIA

  • India has done well in recent years in forging much closer relations with key Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman.
  • India has been able to do so even while forging a close strategic partnership with Israel. The Abraham Accords opened the door to the I2U2 initiative which brought together India, Israel, the UAE and the US in a quadrilateral regional framework, akin to the Quadrilateral (Quad) in the Indo-Pacific.
  • But the deal brokered by China highlights the growing clout, following this if the multi-billion dollar($400bn) deal between Iran and China is materialized and partnership with Saudi is strengthened it will put brakes on ambitious targets set under I2U2

SILVER LINING

  • American President Joe Biden has earlier assured, the US is not leaving the Middle East and that America “will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran”.
  • Earlier US saw itself as the sole provider of regional security, now this approach is changing with US effort to craft a Middle East Air Defence coalition is an example of this.
  • US  focus on national interest found an echo in the Middle East. The region earlier focused on transcendental notions of “pan Arabism” and “pan Islamism”.  Arab leaders now are not willing to let that come in the way of normalisation of relations with Israel. Ex Abraham Accords

Thus India must find ways to revive and expand its energy partnership with Iran and fast-track the implementation of the Chabahar port and the transport corridor that would link it to Central Asia. India’s western flank is far too important to be accorded second place to the Indo-Pacific.

Saudi Arabia - Iran Deal

Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to revive diplomatic relations and reopen embassies after seven years of tensions. The deal has been struck with the help of China.

More about the news:

  • The two regional rivals are expected to reopen embassies as they re-establish ties and a security agreement after Beijing talks.
  • Beijing maintains ties with both countries, and the breakthrough highlights its growing political and economic clout in the region which has long been shaped by the influence of the US.
Screenshot 2023 03 13 at 4.50.50 PM

Background of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations:

1.Areas of Tensions:

  • Tumultuous relationship between the two countries dates back to Iran's Islamic revolution in 1979.
  • Tensions have been high between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia broke off ties with Iran in 2016 after protesters invaded Saudi diplomatic posts in Iran. 
  • Shia-majority Iran and Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia support rival sides in several conflict zones across the Middle East- Yemen, where the Houthi rebels are backed by Tehran and Riyadh leads a military coalition supporting the government. Iran and Saudi Arabia also are on rival sides in Lebanon and Syria. 

2.Recent improvements in relations between the two countries:

  • Negotiations began in Baghdad in 2021 and have taken five rounds so far.
  • Some progress has been made, but the most important or complex case is the Yemen war. Saudi Arabia has declared a unilateral cease-fire, indicating that the country is moving toward new strategies for engaging with Iran.
  • REGIONAL IMPACT:  Renewed ties could scramble geopolitics in West Asia and beyond by bringing together Saudi, a close partner of the US, with Iran, a long-time foe that US and allies consider a threat and the rising role of China in the region.
  • Rising Role of China in the Region:
  • China’s engagement in the region has for years been rooted in delivering mutual economic benefits and shunning Western ideals of liberalism that have complicated Washington’s ability to expand its presence in the Gulf.
  • China dipped its toes into Middle East diplomacy in 2013 by offering a four-point plan that rehashed old ideas for solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That failed to achieve a breakthrough.
  • China is seizing on waning American influence in the region and presenting Chinese leadership as an alternative to a Washington-led order
  • China’s engagement with the region has been steadily expanding. The GCC states provide 40 percent of China’s oil imports, with Saudi Arabia alone exporting 17 percent.
  • The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a major factor in attracting China to the region. The Saudi-China joint statement refers to the “harmonisation plan” between BRI and the Saudi “Vision-2030” that was signed during the visit.
  • With increasing role of China, important initiatives have been: the five rounds of dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2021-22, Turkey’s outreach to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, and the Iraq-Jordan-Egypt consortium set up in August 2021.

3.Indian’s role in West Asia:

  • Areas of Cooperation:
  • 70 per cent of India’s imported energy needs come from West Asia and 11 million Indians working in West Asia.
  • India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances from West Asia.
  • Close cooperation with West Asia is important to prevent spread of terror outfits like Islamic State.
  • West Asia provides gate way to energy rich Central Asian region. Example: Chahbahar port in Iran.
  • Challenges:
  • India’s deepening strategic relations with Israel has been a concern for Iran. Iran hence, plays its China and Pakistan card. Iran has also supported Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir, going against India’s interests.
  • Iran is a part of China’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative. India has been consistently opposing China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
  • ONGC ‘Videsh Limited’ played an important in discovering the Farzad B gas fields in Iran. However, Iran has not given the rights to develop the gas field to India.
  • India has to work on to balance its ties with Iran on the one hand with USA sanctions and Saudi Arabia and the USA on the other.
  • The two close partners of India like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran have reached a deal with Beijing’s influence is disquieting, given India’s current tensions with China.
  • India’s focus on the I2U2 quadrilateral along with Israel, U.S. and UAE, which may have taken the spotlight away from its ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia.
  • India has to closely watch whether Beijing takes its new role as peacemaker to other parts of the world, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict regarding which China has pitched a peace formula
  • China has also sought to emphasize a plan called the Global Security Initiative, that describes an effort to apply “Chinese solutions and wisdom” to the world’s biggest security challenge.

Way Forward

  • I2U2 is the new ‘QUAD’: The I2U2 Group is a grouping of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. India can play crucial role as far as the region (West Asia) is concerned.
  • India can provide large workforce and leverage on its ties with UAE, the USA and Israel to balance China in the region.
  • India’s approach towards the conflicts in the region should have more clear voice and perception. Clear documents should be issued by the Indian side over this conflict, for example, over Iran and Saudi Arabia

What is Cold Peace?

  • A cold peace is a state of relative peace between two countries that is marked by the enforcement of a peace treaty ending the state of war while the government or populace of at least one of the parties to the treaty continues to treat the treaty with vocal disgust domestically.
  • A cold peace is a mimetic cold war. In other words, while a cold war accepts the logic of conflict in the international system and between certain protagonists in particular, a cold peace reproduces the behavioural patterns of a cold war but suppresses acceptance of the logic of behaviour. Cold peace, while marked by similar levels of mistrust and antagonistic domestic policy between the two governments and populations, do not result in proxy wars, formal incursions, or similar conflicts.
  • A cold peace is accompanied by a singular stress on notions of victimhood for some and undigested and bitter Victory for others. The perceived victim status of one set of actors provides the seedbed for renewed conflict, while the 'victory of the others cannot be consolidated in some sort of relatively unchallenged post-conflict order.
  • Example:
  • Egypt and Israel:
  • The Camp David Accords, the Egypt–Israel peace treaty and the aftermath of relations between Israel and Egypt are considered a modern example of cold peace. 
  • After having engaged each other in five prior wars, the populations had become weary of the loss of life, and the negotiation of the accords and the treaty were considered a high point of the Middle Eastern peace process.

However, Egyptian popular support for the treaty plummeted after the 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat and the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, and perception of the treaty has not recovered in the Egyptian populace ever since.

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