Reaping the Demographic Transition In India

India is said to witness a rapid demographic transition in the next 2 decades with demographic dividend expected to peak by 2041. Coupled with the declining share of young and increasing old age population, India will need to reorient its socio-economic policies in accordance with the changing demography as shown below.

Population (Age-Group)20112041
0-1941%25%
20-5951%59%
Greater than 608%16%

Focus of job creation: While 60% of India is projected to be in the working age (20-59) the labour force participation today is at meagre 53%. Thus, we need to have a sustainable long-term vision for job creation which includes a 360-degree approach of generating jobs, producing job creators and empowering the labour force.

Skilling and Reskilling: Being at the cusp of 4th industrial revolution the 21st century jobs require skilling and reskilling. Thus social-economic policies targeting skill development should be designed such that they are in a continuum with education that focuses on enhancement of learning capabilities.

Consolidation of schoolsWith decline in share of young (0-19) to about 1/4th, policies targeting consolidation of schools need to be promoted without affecting access.

Upgradation of health facilities: With an abysmal hospital beds per 1000 population of 0.7, India needs to upgrade health care facilities particularly in the tertiary sector that is linked with life-style disorders.

Retirement Age:  Given the increase in healthy life expectancy beyond 60, India should increase its retirement age at least up till 65 as has been contemplated by developed countries.

Thus, in order to become a $5 trillion economy, India needs to employ an inclusive approach that focuses on each section of the population structure that is witnessing a change.

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