Context: A recent report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has sounded an alarm on climate change, warning that there is a 70% chance of global temperatures exceeding the 1.5°Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels between 2025 and 2029.
Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Key trends related to climate change; Paris Climate deal; India’s climate commitments.
Major Highlights of forecasts by WMO
- Global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the pre-industrial average. There is a 70% chance that average warming will exceed 1.5°C, if the current warming trend continues.
- In 2024, WMO estimated that the average global temperature was between 1.34°C and 1.41°C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
- WMO now projects the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 to reach around 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels.
- Average Arctic temperature over the next five winters (2025-2029) is expected to be 2.4°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average. Sea ice is expected to keep shrinking, particularly in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Sea. This will contribute to rising sea levels and disrupted weather patterns worldwide.
About Paris Climate Agreement
- Adopted in 2015 by 196 Parties during the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Paris, France.
- Aim: To limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.
- Key Features of the Climate deal:
- Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Each country sets its own emission reduction targets, with updates every five years to enhance ambition.
- Global Stocktake: A periodic review of the progress on climate action at global level (not the national level) and identify overall gaps, conducted every five years.
- Climate Finance: Developed countries pledged to mobilise $100 billion annually by 2020 to support climate action in developing nations, with plans for scaling this amount post-2025.
- Adaptation and Resilience: Focuses on helping countries adapt to climate impacts and build resilience against future challenges.
- Significance: First universal, legally binding, global climate deal. It emphasises global cooperation, fairness, and a commitment to sustainable development while recognising the individual capacities of nations.
India’s Panchamrit (nectar elements) of climate action:
The Government of India at the COP26 to the UNFCCC held in Glasgow, United Kingdom 2021 made the following commitments. The five elements of India’s climate action:
i. Reach 500 GW Non-fossil energy capacity by 2030.
ii. Meet 50% of the total energy requirement from renewable energy by 2030.
iii. Reduction of total projected carbon emissions by one billion tons from now to 2030.
iv. Reduction of the carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels.
v. Achieve the target of net zero emissions by 2070.
Concerns: 180 of the 195 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) countries are yet to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) or climate plans for 2031-35 before the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30). Climate plans are crucial to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
A growing number of climate scientists now hold the 1.5-degree target to be impossible to achieve due to the increasing levels of CO2 emissions.