The Question of Balochistan

Context: Hundreds of people marched to Islamabad protesting against the atrocities committed against Balochistan people.

Baloch Issue

• Since Pakistan's inception in 1947 following the Indian subcontinent's independence, Baloch separatism has persisted as a critical issue. This problem dates back to the period when around 500 princely states had to choose between India and Pakistan.
• The integration of Balochistan into Pakistan posed significant challenges. There were rumours suggesting that the Khan of Kalat, central to modern-day Balochistan, desired to align with India, although substantial evidence supporting this claim is lacking. Nonetheless, Balochistan remained an independent entity under the Khan of Kalat until March 1948, when political pressures coerced the ruler into signing the instrument of accession.
• Modern-day Balochistan stands as the largest among Pakistan's four provinces, strategically positioned in the southwestern part of the country, boasting abundant natural resources such as gas, oil, copper, and gold.
• Balochistan historically comprised numerous tribes whose leaders maintained treaty relationships with the British. The Khan of Kalat held a pivotal position among these leaders, with his territories divided among several semi-autonomous feudatories. Makran, Las Bela, and Kharan emerged as separate political entities alongside Kalat, forming the Balochistan States Union.
• Following the British withdrawal from India after World War II, the Khan of Kalat adamantly insisted on Kalat's sovereignty. Hoping to secure a friendship treaty instead of accession, based on his close ties with Jinnah, he initially succeeded in signing a treaty on August 11, 1947, acknowledging Kalat as an independent state.
• However, complications arose when Kharan, Las Bela, and Makran, the three feudatories of Kalat, expressed a desire to accede to Pakistan. Jinnah, changing his stance on Kalat's independence, demanded the Khan to sign the instrument of accession as other states joining Pakistan had done. When the Khan persistently refused, Jinnah transferred negotiations to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
• In 1948, the Pakistani government accepted the accession of the three feudatory states, leaving Kalat landlocked and with less than half of its original landmass. Additional pressure mounted when false news aired on All India Radio, alleging that Kalat intended to join India. With no viable option, the Khan eventually signed the instrument of accession.

Reasons for Baloch Issue

• Marginalization stands as the primary issue stemming from Baluchistan’s forceful integration into Pakistan. Despite being the country's largest province, Balochistan possesses minimal influence in Islamabad's military and political spheres.
• Economic and social underdevelopment forms another critical concern. Balochistan holds immense economic importance for Pakistan due to its significant oil and gas revenues. However, the state's investment in essential sectors like healthcare and education is disproportionately low compared to the generated resources. Consequently, Balochistan exhibits the poorest life expectancy, adult literacy rates, and primary school enrolment across Pakistan.
• The Pakistani military's violent counterinsurgency measures constitute the third challenge. Since Baluchistan’s incorporation into Pakistan, the Pakistani Army has maintained a substantial presence in the region. This presence has led to the suppression of local resistance groups through coercive means, resulting in widespread violence, human rights abuses, internal displacement, and casualties among civilians and armed forces.
• Furthermore, mega projects initiated by China as part of an agreement with Pakistan have exacerbated tensions. These projects have raised concerns among the Baloch population, perceiving them as a threat to their economy, environment, demography, and ethnic identity. The resentment towards these investments has led to violent acts by Baloch separatists, creating a precarious security environment for China's extensive infrastructure endeavours in the region.

India’s changed Policy

• Initially, this policy shift signifies an escalation aimed at dissuading Pakistan's backing of terrorism against India. The Prime Minister's speech served as the preliminary step in this progression. Should Pakistan disregard this warning, subsequent actions might follow, potentially escalating further over time.
• Secondly, the Prime Minister seeks to indicate a clear alteration in Indian policy. Given the failure of diplomatic isolation on a global scale and the unavailability of conventional warfare as an alternative, India contemplates bolstering existing rebellions by extending material support to Baloch insurgents.
• Counterinsurgency demands extensive troop engagement, likely drawing Pakistan's infantry into conflict, despite Pakistan's use of airpower in Balochistan. This approach aims to inflict consequences on the Pakistan Army, seeking retribution for their use of terrorism against India. Moreover, it might prompt the Pakistan Army to consider negotiations to curb cross-border terrorism.
•  Notably, the Balochistan strategy grants India the opportunity to respond forcefully to Pakistan's use of terrorist tactics against India without fearing nuclear escalation.
• An insurgency in Balochistan could potentially disrupt at least a segment of China's efforts, particularly related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), in its attempt to encircle India.
• For years, Indian strategists have lamented India's insufficient intelligence and covert action capabilities within Pakistan. Supporting the Baloch rebellion could serve as a means for India to expand its intelligence-gathering and covert operation abilities in Pakistan.