International Relations & Security

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World Meteorological Organization

Context: In the final report released by the expert group setup by WMO  highlighted a general negative association between temperature and Covid 19 transmission. The expert group was setup in 2020 to assess whether meteorological factors like heat and humidity had any role to play in transmission of Covid 19 virus.

About WMO

  • WMO is a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) with 193 Member States and Territories.
  • It is the UN system's authoritative voice on the state and behaviour of the Earth's atmosphere, its interaction with the land and oceans, the weather and climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources.
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Origin

  • WMO originated from the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), which was founded in 1873 to facilitate the exchange of weather information across national borders.
  • Established in 1950, the WMO became a specialized agency of the United Nations in 1951. Its mandate is in the areas of meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.
  • It has fostered collaboration between the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of its Members and furthered the application of meteorology in many areas.
  • In collaboration with other United Nations agencies and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, WMO supports the implementation of a number of environmental conventions and is instrumental in providing advice and assessments to governments on related matters. These activities contribute towards ensuring the sustainable development and well-being of nations.

Governance Structure

  • Secretariat: The Secretariat, headquartered in Geneva, is headed by the Secretary-General.
  • In June 2019, the World Meteorological Congress approved a reform of the WMO governance and a vision for 2030 as well as other changes that called for an overhaul of the structure of the Secretariat. One of the most important changes implemented thus far is the creation of a Board of Directors.
  • WMO undertakes this task through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of its Members, which own and operate the systems for collecting, processing and analysing information from thousands of observation systems, including satellites and ships. It also ask Services to develop climate change detection tools and software to compute indices that reflect the best estimate of climate trends within the countries.
  • WMO issues Annual, Five-Year and Decadal Statements on the Status of the Global Climate. These statements document extreme weather and climate events in the regional context and provide a historical perspective on the variability and trends of climate, particularly surface temperatures that have occurred since the 19th century.
  • India is a member of WMO. It has been the member since 1949 and India’s permanent representative is the head Director General of Meteorology of the IMD.

WMO reports

  1. Green House Gas Bulletin 
  2. Status of World Climate

Canada-China Kerfuffle

Context: The Canadian government declared Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei “persona non grata,” for allegedly targeting a Canadian lawmaker critical of China’s human rights record. Hours later, China announced a “reciprocal countermeasure” by asking Jennnifer Lynn Lalonde, a top diplomat in the Canadian consulate in Shanghai, to leave the country by May 13. Tensions soared with China saying it holds the “right to take further actions in response”, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau put out a strongly worded statement, reiterating that Canada will not be intimidated.

History of straining Canada-China ties?

  • Diplomatic ties between China and Canada have been unsteady for the past few years, especially after Canadian police arrested Huawei Technologies executive Meng Wanzhou on charges of fraud in 2018. A few days after her arrest, China detained two Canadians on spying charges a move then called “hostage diplomacy”
  • China had suspended imports of canola from Canada, alleging pests in the shipment
  • Canada has also alleged that the Chinese government attempted to interfere in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections a charge Beijing vehemently denies.
  • The two countries are also engaged in a technology battle. While Canada has limited the presence of Chinese firms in its communications infrastructure, Beijing believes the restrictions were imposed without any solid evidence.
  • The tension between the leadership was also visible at the G-20 summit in Indonesia last year, when Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Canadian PM exchanged barbs over leaked details of their meeting about Chinese interference in domestic affairs.

The Recent Spat:

  • At the centre of the latest spat is a report from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS)
  • A series of media reports also highlighted about growing Chinese interference in Canada, a report on an intel document from 2021 which detailed potential threats to opposition lawmaker Michael Chong and his family in Hong Kong over the latter’s criticism of Beijing. Citing an anonymous national security official as its source, the newspaper reported that Chinese consul Zhao Wei was involved in gathering information about Mr. Chong and his family in Hong Kong to target him over his anti-Chinese sentiments 
  • Michael Chong was targeted because he led legislative efforts in Canada’s House of Commons to declare China’s treatment of Uyghurs and other minorities in Xinjiang as “genocide”. In response, Beijing barred his entry into China.
  • After details of the CSIS report were revealed, the Canadian government was heavily criticised for its inaction against China. Internal deliberations followed about the future course of action, seemingly to prepare for any economic repercussions since China is Canada’s second-biggest trade partner.
  • Canada declared diplomat Zhao Wei “persona non grata” (Latin for an unwelcome person). Canada reiterated that it would “not tolerate any form of foreign interference in our internal affairs.”
  • China also responded strongly on actions of Canada, warning of retaliatory measures. 
  • Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin had urged Canada to stop “unreasonable provocations”. Later China issued an order asking Ms. Lalonde to leave the country.

Conclusion:

The future course of diplomatic relations between the two countries will be sharply observed by neighbouring countries like USA, India etc which are themselves having contentious relationship with China and are apprehensive of aggressive rise of China at regional and global level.

Washington Consensus

Context: As Prime Minister Narendra Modi steps up engagement with the US and its allies — at the G7 summit in Hiroshima this week, the Quad summit in Canberra week after, and bilateral visits to Washington and Paris in June and July— the restructuring of the global economic order will figure high on India’s bilateral and multilateral agenda. In the geopolitical domain and so in the geoeconomic, there is a growing convergence of interests between Delhi and Washington. Translating that into concrete outcomes will demand much hard work and some creative solutions

  • The United States today is seeking wider international consensus on the new economic approach from its allies and partners, including India. The Unites states is pushing its efforts to build a “New Washington Consensus” as there is also a  geoeconomic competition between Washington and Beijing which had begun to develop in the Trump years and President Joe Biden has intensified it and lent a plausible ideological framework to it.
  • The term “Washington Consensus”, which gained ground in the late 1980s, referred to the shared prescriptions from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and US Treasury on deregulation, privatisation, and free trade for economic modernisation. By the 1990s, these recommendations gained widespread policy traction in the chancelleries of the world, including in India.

However the Washington Consensus has started showing fissures and the lacunas in the approach which are highlighted by the following reasons: 

  • The conviction that the “markets know best” approach led to the hollowing out of the US industrial base. It was argued that in the name of oversimplified market efficiency, entire supply chains of strategic goods along with the industries and jobs that made them moved overseas. It was realised that deep trade liberalisation though helped America export goods, but not jobs and capacity.
  • Secondly the notion that “all growth was good growth”, led to the privileging of some sectors like finance “while other essential sectors, like semiconductors and infrastructure, atrophied”.
  • Thirdly, the old assumption “that economic integration would make nations more responsible and open, and that the global order would be more peaceful and cooperative”, also led to distortion wherein Unites States referred to the premise underlying China’s admission into the WTO in 2001 wherein admitting countries into the rules-based order should have incentivised them to adhere to its rules”. However  the problems triggered by the integration of a “large non-market economy” like China into the WTO.

It was realised that the America’s economic policy must confront the urgent need for a “just and efficient transition” to green economic growth and the political imperative of reducing economic inequality at home that has undermined American democracy. Thus for this purpose the United States has offered a five-fold policy framework under the New Washington Consensus 

  • The first is to return to industrial policy that was the hallmark of US economic development historically, but dismissed by economic neoliberalism in the last few decades. For this the US has restored the role of the state in pumping investments into semiconductor production and promoting the development and deployment of green technologies.
  • Second, the United States under its new approach is not seeking autarky or promoting protectionism. The US is not going alone, and wants to develop a joint effort with US allies and partners, including India.
  • Third, United States wants its friends and partners to look beyond traditional trade policies. Wherein he highlighted the US-proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is not a free trade agreement.
  • Fourth, the US is trying to mobilise “trillions in investment into emerging economies with solutions that those countries are fashioning on their own, but with capital enabled by a different brand” of US economic diplomacy. This primarily involves offering an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, addressing the global debt crisis, and reforming multilateral development banks.
  • Lastly United States is also pushing the efforts to develop a new set of export controls on sensitive technology that will limit national security threats from China and other rivals.

ABOUT WASHINGTON CONSENSUS

A list of policies that had gained support among Latin American policymakers in response to the macroeconomic turbulence and debt crisis of the early to mid-1980s. These policies also had the backing of experts at Washington's international institutions—especially the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as the US Treasury—to help the recovery from the debt crisis and popularly came to be known as Washington Consensus

  1. Fiscal Policy discipline, with avoidance of large fiscal deficits relative to GDP;
  2. Redirection of public spending from subsidies ("especially indiscriminate subsidies") toward broad-based provision of key pro-growth, pro-poor services like primary education, primary health care and infrastructure investment;
  3. Tax reform broadening the tax base and adopting moderate marginal tax rates;
  4. Interest Rates that are market determined and positive (but moderate) in real terms;
  5. Competitive exchange rates  
  6. Trade liberalization: liberalization of imports, with particular emphasis on elimination of quantitative restrictions (licensing, etc.); any trade protection to be provided by low and relatively uniform tariffs. 
  7. Liberalization of inward foreign direct investment
  8. Privatization of state enterprises 
  9. Deregulation: abolition of regulations that impede market entry or restrict competition, except for those justified on safety, environmental and consumer protection grounds, and prudential oversight of financial institution 
  10. Legal security for property rights. 

INDIA AND WASHINGTON CONSENSUS

  • Pursuit of this policy resulted in annual economic growth breaking out of the 3 to 5 percent band of the pre-1991 era. But redistribution of the extra wealth has been skewed. Those already better off have improved their living standards further whereas the large majority who lagged behind before have stagnated or grown poorer.
  • The emphasis of the WTO and the IMF on export-led growth encouraged cultivators to switch from food crops to fertilizer-intensive cash crops like cotton, coffee, sugarcane, groundnuts, pepper and vanilla. As a consequence, the daily per capita availability of food grains declined from 510 grams in 1991 to 422 grams in 2005.

Conclusion

It is for India to understand that the common themes in the economic strategies are many and these include China’s geoeconomic challenge, the dangers of dogmatic commitment to globalisation, the need for industrial policy to develop national manufacturing, technological cooperation among like-minded partners, building resilient supply chains, addressing the economic concerns of the Global South, and reforming the global financial institutions.

It is also important to understand that there will also be many disagreements on the identification of priorities as well as on the details of the specific outcomes in rearranging the global economic order. But Building on new opportunities and resolving new problems must be viewed as a historic opportunity for India’s economic statecraft. As the US is ready for substantive engagement with its partners and Delhi must be ready to respond.

Kuki-Meities Conflict in Manipur

Context: Manipur’s Kuki Zomi tribes are in conflict with the majority Meitei tribe which has tolled over 60 people in the state. MLAs belonging to the Kuki Zomi tribe now demand separate administration within the state.

History of Kuki’s Homeland demand

  • Demand for the separate Kuki Homeland has been burning since the 1980s when one Kuki insurgent group Kuki National Organisation (KNO) came into being. 
  • After the acceptance of the new state of Telangana, there was a resurgence of demand for Kukiland by the Kuki State Demand Committee. It claims over 60 per cent of Manipur's area. They argued that Kuki habitations were not part of the British Protectorate after the Anglo-Manipur war in 1891. Hence, India cannot claim any rights over this tribal group or its habitation. 
  • KNO has also complained about the grabbing of Kuki land by Naga insurgent groups.

About the Kuki Tribe:

  • Kukis are known by different names to different communities. 
  • Some called them Lushai, some called them Kukis, Darlongs, Rokhums and among the Burma border they are known as Chins. 
  • They called themselves Hare-ems. However ‘Kuki’ has been accepted as the generic name for the community.
  • As per 2011 Census all together Kukis are 10,965 persons in Tripura. In the past they lived in hill tops and maintained their livelihood through jhum cultivation and also by producing fruits. 
  • Now-a-days they do plain land cultivation and rear livestock. 
  • Linguistically they speak a language which is closely related to the Kuki-Chin linguistic family of Sino-Tibetan race. The Kukis have many clans and subclans.
  • Kukis are fond of music and dance. They work hard in Jhum field, garden and enjoy dance and music at community level. 
  • Normally they do not arrange any marriage alliance outside their community. Traditionally they were not Christian but animist and worship different deities and spirits. But for the last 90(ninety) years the majority of them have embraced Christianity as their religion. 
  • They have their own customary laws and village council. 
  • LAL is a term to denote village chief. This is the reason for which Darlong uses Lal before their name.
  • The village chief generally looks up all sorts of social and religious disputes Including disputes related to marriage and divorce. 
  • Presently Kukis are socio-economically advanced then other tribes.

About Meitei Tribe:

  • It is a majority tribal group of Manipur (53% of the population). They speak Meitei language (Manipuri language) which is a Tibeto-Burman language, also the official language of Manipur (written in Bengali language).
  • They are primarily settled in the Imphal Valley region (of Manipur), Assam, Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Mizoram.
  • They are divided into various clans and do not intermarry.
  • Majority of them follow Hinduism, while more than 8% are Muslims.
  • Manipuri martial art Thang-ta is a combative sport which had its origin from the Meitei knights during the kings rule.
  • Lai Haraoba is the important dance festival celebrated in this tribe.

RCEP & India

Context: In November 2019, India walked out from the trade pact called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) involving China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the 10-state Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) grouping. Fast forward to 2023, and now India along with many of the same countries, but with China replaced by the United States, is getting into the U.S.-driven Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF).

Moving Away from China

  • The one clear difference is of China versus the U.S. Developing a strategic partnership with the U.S. is India’s top foreign policy priority. Its relationship with China has, meanwhile, further deteriorated. But a strategic partnership with the U.S. need not come at the cost of economic dependency on it. With China, the big economic fear was any trade deal’s impact on India’s manufacturing sector; of cheap Chinese goods flooding Indian markets.
  • Traditionally, trade deals used to be mostly about tariffs. Increasingly though, issues related to intellectual property, services, investment, domestic regulation, digital, and labour and environmental standards, are becoming more important. The U.S.’s IPEF proposal completely removes the tariff element of typical trade deals, and is entirely about all these other areas.

Potential Negative Impact

  • Early assessment by many experts shows that the IPEF would result in a complete stranglehold over the economic systems of the participating countries, in a manner that is to the complete advantage of the U.S. The systemic integration caused by the IPEF’s actual long-term impact will leave little leeway for domestic policies to help a country’s own industrialisation (for example through tight supply chain integration that many elements of the IPEF contribute to).
  • The IPEF has four pillars: trade, supply chains, clean economy, and fair economy. Fearful of a possible trap, India has joined the other three pillars but not trade. But there is great pressure on it to join trade too, and India could relent. Joining the trade pillar is the worst, but the other pillars too contribute to developing hard new economic architectures and structures that are not tariff-based.
  • The IPEF can already be seen to have deep implications in agriculture, in terms of genetically modified seeds and food, surrendering policy space for regulating Big Tech, and compromising a comparative advantage in manufacturing because of unfair labour and environment standards. It will also seriously affect India’s ability to create a vibrant domestic ecosystem in emerging areas such as a digital economy and green products.

To read more about IPEF i.e. Background, Pros and Cons 
(https://compass.rauias.com/current-affairs/indo-pacific-economic-framework-prosperity/)

Revamping Middle East

Context: The weekend meeting in Riyadh between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the national security advisers of the US, UAE, and India underlines the growing strategic convergence between Delhi and Washington in the Gulf. It also highlights India’s new possibilities in the Arabian Peninsula.

New Development in the Middle East

The new India-US warmth on the Gulf is a major departure from the traditional approaches to the Middle East in both India and the US. 

  • In India, one of the entrenched principles of the Nehruvian foreign policy was the proposition that Delhi must either oppose Washington or keep its distance from it in the Middle East. This self-imposed ideological taboo was broken with the formation of a four-nation grouping  unveiled in October 2021 called I2U2 that brought the US, India, Israel, and the UAE together.
  • It is too understand that joining hands with the US was not the only taboo that current foreign policy dispensation discarded. It also rejected the notion that India can’t be visibly friendly to Israel. 
  • The move has also transformed India’s uneasy relations with the two Arabian kingdoms, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, into solid strategic partnerships. As India is now doubling down with a new quadrilateral with the US, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
  • Emerging Arabia opens enormous new possibilities for India’s economic growth and Delhi’s productive involvement in promoting connectivity and security within Arabia and between it and the abutting regions including Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean and the Subcontinent. 
  • The engagement would also help India overcome the dangerous forces of violent religious extremism within the Subcontinent. The new opportunities in Arabia and the emerging possibilities for partnership with the US and the West position India to rapidly elevate its own standing in the region.
  • Further the US is not the only Western power that India is beginning to work with in the Gulf. France has emerged as an important partner in the Gulf and the Western Indian Ocean. India now has a trilateral dialogue with Abu Dhabi and Paris
  • It is also to understand that it is not only India that  is shedding its “anti-Western” lens in the Middle East, the US is leading the West to discard its pro-Pakistan bias in thinking about the relationship between the Subcontinent and the Gulf. Under Nehruvian foreign policy India withdrew from its historic geopolitical role in the Middle East, Pakistan became the lynchpin of the Anglo-American strategy to secure the “wells of (oil) power” in the Gulf.
  • However Pakistan’s continuing strategic decline makes it a lot less relevant to the changing geopolitics of the Gulf. Once viewed as a moderate Muslim nation with prospects for economic growth, it has now locked itself into a self-made trap of violent religious extremism and its political elite is utterly unprepared to lift the nation economically.
  • Pakistan has drifted too close to China. As the US-China confrontation sharpens, Islamabad is tempted to align with China and Russia in the region and the scholars believe that the current government might prefer to boost its “all-weather partnership” with Beijing.

Understanding the Changing Regional Dynamics

  • The US is not about to abandon the Middle East. But it certainly is recalibrating its regional strategy.
  • US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan highlighted several elements of the new US approach. Viewed from Delhi, two of them stand out. 
  • One was about building new partnerships, including with Delhi 
  • Second was about the integration of the Arabian Peninsula into India and the world. 
  • It is also about the rising power of the Arabian Peninsula, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Gulf kingdoms have accumulated massive financial capital and embarked on an ambitious economic transformation that will reduce their dependence on oil over the long term. 
  • They have also begun to diversify their strategic partnerships, develop nationalism rather than religion as the political foundation for their states, promote religious tolerance at home, and initiate social reform.

Conclusion

The momentous change in intra-regional and international relations of the Arabian Peninsula, India has inevitably become part of the new regional calculus. Seizing the new strategic opportunities for India in the Gulf would, however, involve the long overdue modernisation of Delhi’s strategic discourse on the Gulf and a conscious effort to change the outdated popular narratives on the Arabian Peninsula.

Read also: New proposed project, benefits and about I2U2 visit

Buddhism, India’s soft power projection tool

Context: There is much significance to India having hosted a two-day global Buddhist summit in New Delhi (April 20-21), which was organised by the Ministry of Culture in collaboration with the International Buddhist Confederation. The summit saw the participation of key figures from the global Buddhist community, including the Dalai Lama. The summit was a significant opportunity for India to project and connect with the Buddhist population around the world, thereby strengthening the country’s soft power.

Use of Buddhism as a soft power tool:

With its strong historical and cultural ties to Buddhism, India is well-positioned to play a leading role in shaping the discourse around Buddhist issues on the global stage.

  • The Indian government has been actively investing in its Buddhist diplomacy efforts, with a focus on promoting tourism through the development of the “Buddhist tourist circuit”. Additionally, India under PM Modi has made it a point to visit Buddhist sites during his Southeast and East Asian visits. By hosting such a high-profile event, the Indian government hopes to demonstrate its commitment to preserving and promoting Buddhist culture and heritage, as well as strengthening ties with the global Buddhist community
  • Further India’s efforts to position itself as a great power is committed to cooperation rather than coercion and are rooted in its deep historical and cultural ties to the region. The current government’s guiding principles for foreign policy, Panchamrit principles include “Sanskriti Evam Sabhyata” which means cultural and civilizational links, which were highlighted during the Delhi summit
  • India hopes to reinforce its image as a responsible global power committed to peaceful cooperation and regional stability. By laying an emphasis on cultural and civilisational ties, India seeks to promote greater understanding and cooperation between nations and to demonstrate the unique role it can play in shaping the region’s future.

What can be done further?

  • India needs to utilise the reach of Bollywood in promoting its Buddhist heritage. China, with its influence over Hollywood, has completely dominated the narrative around Buddhism through cinema. In contrast, India is behind in this domain; there have not been any efforts made through cinema.
  • India’s G-20 presidency this year could be used to promote Buddhist diplomacy on a bigger scale through various cultural meetings, especially as Buddhist teachings align with the motto of India’s G-20 presidency, ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’

As Buddha was the first diplomat of peace, his teachings of peace and cooperation in these tough times can become the guiding light of Indian diplomacy on the world stage.

ABOUT SOFT-POWER

DEFINITION: The American political theorist Joseph Nye, who coined the term Soft power, defines it as ‘the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than

coercion.’ Indian External Affairs ministry has also defined the term soft power as ability to influence others through appeal and attraction, using non-coercive means.

INDIAN EFFORTS

India has been exercising a range of soft power resources which have widespread global appeal. These include Indian arts, dances and literature, cuisine, yoga and traditional holistic medicine, Indian cinema and entertainment and sports, historical monuments, India’s democracy, its Constitution, its unity in diversity and its composite cultural ethos, traditional values, unique approaches to contemporary issues such as climate change and environmental preservation, scientific and technological accomplishments and socio economic innovation.

METHODS UNDERTAKEN BY INDIA

  • Role of Culture: India has a rich culture and cultural diplomacy is its expression abroad to foreign audiences in order to facilitate/create long term international influence.
  • Role of Diaspora: India has a large Diaspora in the world with over 31 million including over 13 million NRIs and 18 million PIOs spread across the globe. The presence of an extensive and vibrant Indian Diaspora abroad with their growing political and economic profile has emerged as a unique soft power asset of the country. 
  • The Indian Diaspora has emerged as a major partner in promotion of cultural diplomacy in their respective countries. Enumerating the steps taken to engage the extensive network of Indian Diaspora in furthering India's foreign policy and long term interests, various programmes and has taken several steps from time to time to engage with Indian Diaspora for example Know India Programme, Pravasi Teerth Darshan Yojana, Scholarship Programme for Diaspora Children, Bharat Ko Janiye Quiz, Promotion of Cultural Ties with Diaspora, Pravasi Bharatiya Divas among others.
  • Role of Tourism: The Committee are aware that tourism is a key indicator of a country’s soft power capital. Religious tourism and medical tourism have emerged as areas with immense tourism potential. As an ancient civilization and a land of many religions, India has been cashing on this potential. 
  • Efforts that are being taken: India’s Buddhist Circuit/ Pilgrimage and attract foreign tourist to Buddhist sites in India, the International Buddhist Conclave (IBC) is being organized regularly by the Government. To promote tourism, various efforts have also been made viz, launching of the ‘Incredible India’ campaign Under the Champion Sector Scheme, Marketing & Promotion for Buddhist circuits in overseas markets shall be taken up are some of the schemes that are being undertaken.
  • Role of Parliamentary Democracy: India’s vibrant parliamentary democracy, multi-party-political system and orderly change of Government through regular peaceful elections have significantly enhanced India’s standing and profile globally. India is held in great esteem worldwide as the world’s largest democracy.
  • Role of Yoga: Yoga is the ancient Indian practice of physical and mental well-being. The Committee are pleased to note that The United Nations General Assembly declared 21st June as the International Day of Yoga (IDY). The Ministry of AYUSH is the nodal Ministry for International Day of Yoga celebrations and has been celebrating IDY since last five years at national as well as at international level. 
  • ICCR has established the Indo-Turkmenistan Centre for Yoga and Traditional Medicine in Ashgabat and the India- China Yoga College at Yunnan Minzu University, China.
  • Role of Media and Cinema: The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting through Prasar Bharati, External Services Division of All India Radio, Film Facilitation Office, etc have been playing a prominent role in the projection of India’s soft power and cultural diplomacy. Hindi film industry, popularly known as Bollywood, has emerged as one of the most notable examples of global entertainment emanating from outside the Western world. The Committee are of the strong view that added emphasis needs to be given to the global imprint of our Cinema as an instrument of soft power while taking effective steps to celebrate and popularize our movies abroad, including regional cinema.

CHALLENGES

The Ministry of External Affairs has highlighted four key factors inhibiting effective conduct of India’s soft power and cultural diplomacy

  1. Inadequate budgetary allocation: Non-availability of adequate finances is one of the factors derailing the effective facilitation of India’s soft power projection. Soft power capabilities require capital, both human as well as financial to be effective. A cursory glance at the budgetary allocation to India’s ICCR and Confucius Institutes of China or UKS’s British Council or Germany’s Goethe Institute is testimony to the hurdles in our institutional efficacy
  2. Lack of coordination among multiple institution: There is a need for greater coordination and consultation among multiple institutions, both in the government and private sector, engaged in conduct of cultural and soft power projection. Currently, there is duplication of efforts and resources due to overlapping mandates of several ministries and agencies.
  3. Shortage of skilled manpower: Shortage of skilled, motivated manpower in the Headquarters as well as in Indian Missions/Posts abroad who have the requisite enthusiasm and interest in cultural work.
  4. Lack of clarity about the mandate of ICCR: While ICCR was established some 71 years ago, global situation has witnessed several drastic changes thereafter. Hence, an institutional device conceived some seven decades back needs a relook in the context of its organizational set functionality and efficacy. The Committee recommend that the Ministry should appoint a Study Group firstly to assess the working of ICCR in comparison to British Council, the American Centre and the Confucius Institute etc and later suggest ways to further strengthen ICCR

SOLUTIONS

  • The Committee, therefore, recommend that MEA should conduct a thorough assessment of our soft power potential and devise strategies for optimum utilization of the same in achieving India’s foreign policy objectives on priority basis and apprise the Committee accordingly.
  • The Committee recommend that the MEA should capitalize in multilateral diplomacy channels and abundantly incorporate Track 2 and Track 3 diplomacy in India’s foreign policy strategies.
  • The Committee therefore recommend that the Ministry should take urgent steps firstly to evolve and later adopt National Policy on Cultural Relationship Development across the countries or National Soft Power Policy.
  • The Committee, therefore, recommend that the Government should increase ICCR’s budgetary allocation by at least 20% than what is being provisioned as of now.
  • In view of the urgent need for greater synergy and coordination among the various Ministries/ Departments /agencies involved in India’s soft power and cultural diplomacy, the Committee recommend that the Coordination Committee may be constituted at the earliest.

The Committee, feels that a study could establish the linkages between our soft power and tangible outcomes in the field of diplomacy and hence they fail to comprehend the glaring delay in developing India’s Soft Power Matrix and thus recommends Ministry should have objective metrics for evaluating soft power outcomes through a ‘Soft Power Matrix’ at the earliest.

India’s China strategy needs to be debated

Context: The Chinese policy follows the principle of making headlines on India’s borders. The latest move, in April, saw them “renaming” 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh, which they consider to be “Zangnam” or, in English, “South Tibet”. The announcement was made after approval from the State Council, implying a green light from the very top of the Chinese system.

India-China Relations

  • Ever since the unresolved stand-off at Galwan in June 2020, there has been no serious attempt by Beijing at a resolution, let alone a restoration of the status quo ante, while several instances of further provocation have occurred from the Chinese side. 
  • Another border skirmish in December 2022 in the Tawang area showed that whatever policy the Ministry of External Affairs is masking with its anodyne statements, it is not ensuring deterrence.

India’s Tepid Response

The current response of Indian foreign policy despite of the subsequent reports of incursions seems to be tepid and scholars have identified following reasons for the same:

  • The growing power differential between the two countries act as a deterring force on India taking an aggressive stand against government.
  • Further there is also uncertainty about the strategic actions of major powers such as the U.S. in case of a military stand-off actually takes place between two hostile neighbours.
  • There is a wide military differential capability between the two countries and strategic reports have pointed out that India is not equipped for a major war with China. 
  • There is also pressure from Indian business interests who are anxious to safeguard trade as despite of the rhetoric (under Atmanirbhar Bharat) India’s trade dependence on China has now crossed over $100 billion.
  • Further there is a lack of consensus within the various ministries of the government about the kind of response the Chinese threat merits which is reflected in the non-coherent statements made by different heads of ministries.
  • At last there is a lack of political will within assertive and majoritarian government at the central level which seeks to safeguard its tough image domestically.

This brings us to the question that if India repeating the errors made in its pre-1962 engagement with Communist China? 

  • During 1962, PM Nehru’s vision of India and China as the two major south Asian civilizations led to India being one of the first countries to recognise the Communist government in China and ended up with its softening its line on China’s invasion and occupation of Tibet, its encroachment on India’s borders and its cartographical aggression in the pursuit of Chinese goodwill. 
  • PM Modi’s current policy seems eerily similar to what can be called as Chinese appeasement, and scholars believe that it could end just as badly if not exactly as it did in 1962.
  • Further the Chinese Communist Party has shored up its domestic credibility by valorising its international image. The earlier policy which was anchored in the “peaceful rise” theory, it is now about showing strength, determination, economic might and an unwillingness to compromise on what it sees as its core national interests. 
  • Previously China has always had a fear of being isolated in global affairs but today guided by the geopolitical interest and pragmatism in foreign policy, its assertiveness today is accompanied by diplomatic overtures in Europe, Russia and West Asia, to add an adroit diplomatic gloss to its uncompromising military determination.

Conclusion:

  • When dealing with the Chinese, India must always remember Mark Twain’s observation, that history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
  • The period since Galwan, 2020-23, is not the same as 1949-62, but the same pattern of appeasement and self-denial is ominously emerging.
  • India should not miss an opportunity to loudly and proudly raise matters of its own vital interest by not using a strategy that fractures China’s image by challenging it publicly on its transgressions.

Doval in Saudi to discuss US rail link plan for West Asia

Context: National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met his counterparts from the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to discuss an ambitious proposal being pushed by the White House to link West Asian countries through rail — using Indian expertise — and connect the region to South Asia via sea lanes.

  • The participants discussed the broad contours of the massive joint project to build railway, maritime and road connectivity in the larger region, linking the Indian subcontinent in South Asia with West Asia which the US also calls the Middle East.
  • The idea for the new initiative came up during talks held over the last 18 months in a forum called I2U2, which includes the US, Israel, the UAE and India. The forum was established in late 2021 to discuss strategic infrastructure projects in West Asia.

What is the railway link plan

  • It is among the key initiatives as United States wants to push in the Middle East as China’s influence in the region grows. The Middle East is a key part of China’s Belt and Road vision.
  •  The United states of America, has also proposed the Blue Dot network, is one of the elements in the creation of the connectivity project that will be financially sustainable and viable.
  • For India, China has expanded its sphere of political influence in the West Asian region through what Delhi views as “mission creep” the breakthrough in ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran had caught India unawares.

Benefit of the project:

  • Efficient: Such connectivity will allow for faster movement of the crude and minimise India’s costs in the long term. The connectivity boost will also help India’s eight million citizens who live and work in the Gulf region.
  • Branding: The project will help India build a brand as an infrastructure builder in the railways sector. Boasting a strong rail network at home and buoyed by the success of creating such infrastructure in Sri Lanka, India has the confidence to do it overseas.
  • It wants private companies as well as public sector enterprises to explore the potential economic and infrastructure opportunities in the region. 
  • Countering BRI: This will also have the effect of countering the Chinese Belt and Road project, which has burdened many countries in the region with infrastructure that has limited utility.
  • Alternative Route: The government feels that India’s connectivity to its western neighbours has been limited for long by Pakistan’s blocking of overland transit routes. So, India wants to use shipping routes to reach West Asian ports. 
  • These include Chabahar and Bandar-e-Abbas (Iran), Duqm (Oman), Dubai (UAE), Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) and Kuwait City. Connectivity projects crisscrossing the Gulf and Arab countries, with Indian stakes, open up trading opportunities.
  • Energy security: India is a significant energy consumer from the region plus it will be beneficial for partners in the project like UAE and Saudi Arabia. Prior to pivoting towards Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, India was heavily dependent on the region for its energy needs and thus this initiative cab bring focus back on the region.

Conclusion:

The basic plan is to connect South Asia, the Middle East and the US in ways that advance economic technology plus diplomacy and thus India can be the glue which binds the grouping. As New Delhi has steady ties with Washington and the latter sees it as a natural ally to counter the threat of China on the global map.

ABOUT I2U2 

  • The arrangement is far from a non-security mechanism for cooperation on development issues between four countries – I2 – India and Israel, U2 – USA & UAE. 
  • Foreign Ministers of the grouping first met in October 2021 and now the summit signals plans for cooperation have grown, and the US had highlighted that the I2U2 could become for the Gulf region what the Quad for the Indo-Pacific has developed too. 

POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS OF I2U2 FOR INDIA’S  INTEREST 

  • It would fill the gap the United States is leaving in the Middle East. 
  • It has the potential to transform the region's geopolitics and geoeconomics. 
  • The group can deepen its engagement on issues that concern India — trade, energy ties, fighting climate change and enhancing maritime security. 
  • It coincides with stronger relationship that India has with both Israel and the Gulf countries. 
  • It would further deepen India’s cooperation with one of the most important partner UAE. 
  • It strengthens India- US engagement as strategic partners. 
  • It can be effective in countering China economically and politically. 

AREAS OF CONCERNS 

  • Role of other Arabic Gulf powers like Saudi Arabia is yet to be ascertained in this partnership. 
  • An area of concern is that Except India the other three countries are adversaries of Iran. 
  • Causes concerns for India - Iran relations which are collaborating on strategic projects like Chabahar and connect Central Asia policy. 
  • New Quad is yet to clarify its strategic objectives. 
  • US policy towards India has not been very concrete. It created a Parallel AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific. US withdrew from Afghanistan without taking India into confidence. 
  • In this backdrop the US needs to further clarify India’s role in its strategic ambitions in the Middle east. 

WAY FORWARD 

  • New Quad has come at a time when Israel Arab relations are improving, China’s presence in the middle east is increasing and US is withdrawing from the region. 
  • In such a scenario India’s membership of the New Quad in the middle east can be crucial to India’s interest in the peace and stability of the region. 
  • However, there are concerns that India’s membership of the MEQ can have adverse impact on India’s relations with Iran. However, India has carefully been treading a path of pursuing its interests in the region, without taking sides on the existing fault lines. 

Thus, India’s membership of MEQ which has outlined a soft agenda of cooperation seems to be in line with its policy of “non-interference” in the internal affairs, pursuit of strategic autonomy and extension of Bilateralism to Minilaterals.

Raksha Mantri approves the posting of Women Officers of the Territorial Army along the Line of Control

Context: In a major development, the Ministry of Defence, Department of Military Affairs, has approved an amendment to existing cadre management provisions for Women Officers of the Territorial Army (TA).

About Territorial Army

  • The Territorial Army is a part of the Regular Army.
  • Its present role is to relieve the Regular Army from static duties and assist Civil Administration
  1. In dealing with natural calamities and maintenance of essential services in situations where the life of the communities is affected or the security of the Country is threatened and
  2. To provide units for the Regular Army as and when required.

Arguments in favour

Military Readiness: Allowing a mixed-gender force keeps the military strong. The all-volunteer forces are severely troubled by falling retention and recruitment rates. Widening the applicant pool for all jobs guarantees more willing recruits. Women, who choose to become active combat soldiers, are unlikely to shirk their duty by becoming pregnant after a call-up as these women have willingly joined the army.

Effectiveness: The blanket restriction for women limits the ability of commanders in theatre to pick the most capable person for the job.

Tradition: Training will be required to facilitate the integration of women into combat units. Cultures change over time and the masculine subculture can evolve too. Many previously masculine professions have been successfully opened to women over the past century like driving, managing, judging etc.

Modern warfare and public support: In the modern world of combat (Afghanistan, Iraq), all women serving in the military are exposed to “front-line risks”. Support for women serving in the armed forces has not wavered as warfare has changed, a clear sign that the necessity of women serving in combat is recognized.

Cultural Differences & Demographics: Women are more effective in some circumstances than men. Allowing women to serve doubles the talent pool for delicate and sensitive jobs that require interpersonal skills not every soldier has. Having a wider personnel base allows militaries to have the best and most diplomatic soldiers working to end the conflict quickly.

Career advancement: As combat, duty is usually regarded as necessary for promotion to senior officer positions, denying female personnel this experience ensures that very few will ever reach the highest reaches of the military and so further entrenches sexism. Women have to be given the same opportunities as men, in the army in order to have the same opportunities they have to be exposed to the same risks

Arguments in opposition

Physical Ability: While the majority of jobs in the armed forces are open equally to men and women, there are some to which women are just not physically suited. The standards of physical fitness have been set to suit men, and women attempting to reach them will over-stretch themselves.  In addition, combat units engage in activities designed to suit men’s capabilities. Women serving in integrated units will suffer higher injury rates as a result of this.

Efficiency: Some women will be able to meet the required standards, but most will not. While the integration of women into combat is possible for those qualified, the small number versus the additional logistical, regulatory and disciplinary costs associated with integration does not make it a worthwhile move.

Morale & Cohesion: Having women serving in direct combat may hamper mission effectiveness by hurting unit morale and cohesion.

Military readiness: Pregnancy can affect the deployability of a unit when the unit has a disproportionate number of women or is understaffed.

Tradition: Men, especially those likely to enlist, maintain traditional gender roles. In some situations, men may act foolishly to protect women in their combat units. Harassment and resentment of the presence of women in a hyper-masculine military subculture would likely become a problem.

Abuse by Enemy: Both male and female prisoners are at risk of torture and rape, but misogynistic societies may be more willing to abuse woman prisoners.

Real-time, operational picture among several automation initiatives of Army

Context: Army formations at all levels — from the Commander on the ground to the Corps level will soon have a real-time, common operating picture, with information and data from various sensors and inputs fused into one comprehensive image for quick decision-making.

  • A new Battlefield Surveillance System (BSS) under Project Sanjay is in the process of being deployed, after extensive validation carried out in the plains, deserts, and mountains.
  • Under BSS, the aim is to have surveillance centres for all field formations by December 2025. It will integrate thousands of sensors which will enable provision of an integrated surveillance picture to commanders and staff at all levels, besides completing the sensor-shooter grid by integrating with the Artillery Combat Command and Control System (ACCCS)
  • This is among a series of automation projects being rolled out which are expected to cumulatively improve operational efficiency, enhance battlefield awareness for Commanders on the ground, and also provide functional efficiency for human resource management, logistics, inventory management, medical services and other administrative functions.

India’s Defence Modernisation Challenges:

The pace of modernisation of the Indian Armed Forces over the years has been rather slow and, technologically, they are not where they should have been. Indigenous development of modern defence hardware continues to remain a concern, and Indian policy aspiration for defence self-sufficiency remains largely elusive.

The Indian defence industry suffers from major policy, structural, and cultural challenges that beset a military-industrial complex that continues to struggle in terms of delivering modern defence hardware that could have added to the greater Indian defence indigenisation and production.

  • A Military Strategy to address National Security- National security is determined by the threats that a nation faces. Military strategy is the ability to identity and respond to a threat. In olden times armies fought in battlefield. Today there are terrorist, insurgency and cyber threats. The armed forces have to modernise to face such threats. 
  • The lack of military inputs in decision-making is considered to be the most significant lacuna. It is also observed that the national security strategy of India suffers from flaws such as the absence of a National Security Doctrine and the absence of a long-term defence planning. 
  • The decision making in India on national security and strategic matters have been however projected to be slow and complex because of the hierarchical structure of the decision-making process. Further observers have questioned the efficacy of the established process of decision-making in defence acquisition or during times of crises, which is managed by Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS)
  • Economy - The country's economy is determined by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The bigger the GDP the faster is the economic growth. Faster the economic growth, quicker will be the modernisation of the armed forces. 
  • It is to be noted that capability building of the Army is a continuing process, where budget, especially capital funds, are requested for annually, based on the projected needs for implementing a 15 year long term perspective plan. However, it has been the experience for many years now that adequate capital funds for modernisation are not allotted, and consequently, there are major shortfalls in acquiring new equipment and other war-fighting capability in a time bound manner.
  • Adequate Budget Allocation - Defence is allotted budget every year as part of the country's yearly budget. Modernisation requires a huge allocation since modern arms and ammunition are purchased from other countries. This allocation of budget depends upon the economic growth. India is now under 'Make in India' project and is hoping to reduce dependence on other countries and also save money. 
  • The Standing Committee on Defence (2018) had recommended that the Ministry of Defence should be allocated a fixed budget of about 3% of GDP to ensure adequate preparedness of the armed forces. However, over the last decade, India’s spending on defence has consistently been lower than this recommended level. In 2023-24, allocation to the Ministry is estimated to be marginally lower than 2% of GDP
  • Challenge within forces: The Indian Army has continued to expand, in manpower terms, in its quest to build up capability to deal with potential threats and challenges. The problem was compounded by some faulty human resources (HR) policies of the Army in recent years, which had incentivised holding of more manpower by linking it to calculation of senior rank positions in the Army.
  • There is lack of expertise within the Army in the field of weapon designs and technology, resulting in lack of meaningful inputs for the indigenous defence industry. 
  • The Army remains rooted to the outdated policies of employing ‘generalists’ rather than ‘specialists’ to man the weapon procurement functions at Army Headquarters. Unless serious efforts are made to create a cadre of specialists to man critical functions related to procurement of Army weapons and equipment, starting with the Apex level, the situation is not likely to improve
  • Research in Military Technology, Artificial Intelligence and Cyber Warfare - A portion of the defence budget is given to research and development. A good research and development will make the country self-sufficient in critical technology. For this we must modernise Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), and Defence Public Sector units such as, Ordnance Factory Board (OFB), 
  • These organisations are marred with inefficiency and apparent lack of accountability which are responsible for indigenous design and manufacture of weapons, equipment and ammunition for the Army, namely the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) and Defence Public Sector Units (DPSUs)
  • Further the indigenous defence industry, mostly based on the public sector, is unable to provide items of desired quality in a timely manner. Most procurement through this route is affected by huge cost overruns.

Recent steps taken by the government

  • DRDO has established 05 DRDO Young Scientist Laboratories (DYSLs) to provide solutions in advanced technology areas viz artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, cognitive technologies, asymmetric technologies and smart materials to tackle emerging challenges in military warfare.
  • Announcement of 18 major defence platforms for industry led Design & Development in March 2022.
  • Notification of three ‘Positive Indigenisation lists’ of total 310 items of services and two Positive Indigenisation lists of total 2958 items of DPSUs for which there would be an embargo on the import beyond the timelines indicated against them.
  • Launch of innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX) scheme involving start-ups & Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
  • Launch of an indigenisation portal namely SRIJAN to facilitate indigenisation by Indian industry including MSMEs.
  • Opening up of Defence Research & Development (R&D) for industry, start-ups and academia with 25% of defence R&D budget earmarked to promote development of defence technology in the country.

The defence ministry is seriously looking at implementing the ambitious Strategic Partnership model for defence production, it could not firm up any major deal under it. Under the policy, government had planned to rope in foreign defence majors to build key military platforms like submarines and fighter jets in India in partnership with Indian companies.

A special case of Manipur

Context: Largescale violence broke out on May 3 triggered by the Manipur High Court’s direction to the State to pursue a 10-year-old recommendation to grant Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the nontribal Meitei community.

What’s the issue?

  • Violent clashes erupted in Manipur during a Tribal Solidarity March organized by All-Tribal Students’ Union. The march aimed to oppose the inclusion of Meitei community in the state's Scheduled Tribes list.
  • The Army and Assam Rifles conducted flag marches in the affected areas, following an order by the Manipur High Court in favor of the Meitei community. Both the demand and the order, passed by a single judge of the High Court, have been strongly opposed by groups representing the state’s tribal communities. 
  • The court’s order, released on April 14, asking the government to consider the demand, has brought the historical tensions between the valley-dwelling Meitei community and the state’s hill tribes to a boil.

Scheduled Tribe:

The Constitution of India in Article 366 (25) prescribe that the Scheduled Tribes means such tribes or tribal communities as are deemed under Article 342 of the Constitution to be Scheduled Tribes. 

The provisions under Article 342 read as follows: 

(1) The President may with respect to any State or Union Territory, and where it is a State, after consultation with the Governor thereof, by a public notification, specify the tribes or tribal communities or part of or groups within tribes or tribal communities as Scheduled Tribe in relation to that State or Union Territory as the case may be. 

(2) Parliament may be law include in or exclude from the list of Scheduled Tribes specified in a notification issued under clause (1) any tribe or tribal community or part of or group within any tribe or tribal community but save as aforesaid a notification issued under the said clause shall not be varied by any subsequent notification.

Criteria for inclusion into the list of Scheduled Tribe:

  1. indications of primitive traits
  2. distinctive culture
  3. geographical isolation
  4. shyness of contact with the community at large
  5. backwardness

Present status of Scheduled Tribes in India:

  • There are over 700 tribes (with overlapping communities in more than one State) which have been notified under Article 342 of the Constitution of India, spread over different States and Union Territories of the country. 
  • The largest number of main tribal communities (62) has been specified in relation to the State of Orissa.  
  • The Scheduled Tribes have been specified in relation to all the States and Union Territories except Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Pondicherry.

Ethnic composition of Manipur State:

  • In Manipur, the Meiteis are the largest community, with approximately 64.6% of the population residing in the central valley. 
  • The valley encompasses only 10% of the state's landmass and is also home to the Meitei Pangals. 
  • The remaining 90% of the state comprises hills surrounding the valley, where about 35.4% of the population, consisting of 34 recognized tribes, live. These tribes are categorized into "Any Kuki Tribes" and "Any Naga Tribes."

Demand of Meitei community:

  • Since 2012, the Scheduled Tribes Demand Committee of Manipur (STDCM) has been leading an organized effort to push for the inclusion of the Meitei community in the list of Scheduled Tribes in the Indian Constitution. 
  • Recently, the Meitei Tribe Union approached the Manipur High Court, seeking a direction to the state government to submit a recommendation to the Union Ministry for Tribal Affairs for the inclusion of the Meitei community as a "tribe among tribes in Manipur".
  • The petitioners argued that the Meitei community had been recognized as a tribe before the merger of the princely state of Manipur with the Union of India in 1949 but lost its identity as a tribe after the merger.
  • The demand for ST status is driven by the need to “preserve” the community, its ancestral land, tradition, culture, and language, as they have been victimized without any constitutional safeguards. 
  • The STDCM has made several pleas to the state and central governments, highlighting that the Meiteis have been gradually marginalized in their ancestral land, and their population has reduced from 59% in 1951 to 44% as per 2011 Census data.

Why other tribal groups are opposing the demand of Meitei Community?

  • The tribal groups are concerned that granting ST status to the Meiteis, who have a dominant population and political representation in the valley region, could result in the loss of job opportunities and affirmative actions for the existing ST communities. 
  • Some also argue that the Meiteis do not need ST status to protect their culture and identity, as they are already a dominant group with the state's support in safeguarding their cultural, political, and economic rights.

The government must take a proactive role in promoting peace and reconciliation, and work towards creating a more inclusive and harmonious society that values and respects the diversity of its people.

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