Context: A new study published in The Lancet, has suggests that India's population will peak by mid-century and decline to about 1.09 billion by the end of the 21st century. It could even be as low as 724 million.
Key findings of the study:
- By 2100, Indian women will have an average of 1.29 children, leading to a sharp population decline since a replacement rate of 2 is needed.
- In contrast, the projected fertility rates are 1.53 for the United States and 1.78 for France.
- The UN projects that India’s population will be 1.64 billion by 2050, the study projects 1.61 billion by 2048.
- In the 1950s, India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was nearly 6 children per woman. Despite extensive family planning efforts and forced sterilizations during the Emergency, the TFR only dropped by 17% from 5.9 in 1960 to 4.9 in 1980. However, between 1992 and 2015, it decreased by 35% from 3.4 to 2.2.
- Family planning has significantly diminished in importance within Indian policy discourse.
- From 1975 to 1994, family planning workers were required to meet specific targets for sterilizations, condom distribution, and intrauterine device (IUD) insertions.
- These targets frequently resulted in explicit or implicit coercion. However, after the Cairo Conference on Population and Development in 1994, these targets were discontinued.
Reason for decline in fertility rate:
- Public policies promoting small family norms and contraception have been weak, yet couples have moved away from large families. India's socioeconomic transformation since the 1990s is likely a key factor.
- As agriculture's role in the economy shrank, school and college enrolment surged, and jobs in government, multinationals, and software services brought financial rewards.
- Parents shifted their strategies, prioritizing education over larger families. Unlike in the West, where fertility decline is linked to a retreat from family, Indian parents have shown increased commitment by having fewer children and investing more in their education.
- Researcher shows that while families of different sizes at the same income level engage similarly in leisure activities and women's workforce participation, smaller families spend more on private schooling and coaching classes for their children. This decline in fertility is driven by aspirations for their children's success, not their own.