Context: In the recent meeting between Indian and Maldivian foreign ministers in New Delhi, S. Jaishankar reiterated that the development of India-Maldives ties was based on ‘mutual interests’ and ‘reciprocal sensitivity’ given that they are close and proximate neighbours.
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- India recently approved the highest-ever export quotas for essential commodities: eggs, potatoes, onions, sugar, rice, wheat flour and pulses, river sand and stone aggregates, to the Maldives for 2024-25 under a unique bilateral mechanism.
- The approved quantities are the highest since this arrangement came into effect in 1981.
India-Maldives relations in recent years:
- The relations strained after President Muizzu was elected to the Presidential Office.
- President Muizzu immediately demanded the withdrawal of Indian Military personnel keeping with his disinclination to accommodate India.
- President Muizzu is following the India-Out and China-In policy.
- He pressed for non-renewal of the Hydrology pact with India signed in 2019, but commenced the operationalisation of the FTA signed with China (PRC) in 2017.
Geo-Strategic and Geopolitics importance of Maldives:
- Maldives is very important for India due to the existence of India’s Sea lanes of communication(SLOCs) passing around Maldives. Most of India’s trade and energy supplies transit through this route.
- Kerala and Lakshadweep security to an extent depends on Maldives’s stability as it forms an outer buffer zone for India.
- China’s PLN (People’s Liberation Navy) increasing presence in the Indian Ocean and the (Xiang Yang Hong 03) arrival of research vessels from China in Male has deepened India’s concerns.
- China is increasing its power and status by constructing bases in the Indian Ocean Region. China also wants to win mining rights and conduct bathymetric and topographic surveys of the region.
- India cannot risk the radicalisation of Maldives which may lead to adverse downstream consequences for regional security in general and Indian security in specific.
India’s options:
- The recent push by Muizzu to diversify resources and import partners asks for sustained quiet diplomacy from India.
- India needs to consistently use sustained diplomacy as India shares a lot of commons with Maldives which includes geographical access, historical ties, political ties, people to people connectivity etc.
- India’s deep political ties are showcased by recent high-level exchanges done by both sides in 2023 and annual joint exercises like Ekuverin.
- When Abdulla Shahid became the UNGA President, India has used its instrumental diplomatic clout to ensure its victory.
- India can leverage People to people (P2P) relations.
- India has always been a first responder like in 2014 incident of acute water supply crisis and even has stood beside Maldivians through Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital(IGMH).
- India also sent the highest number of tourists to Maldives from 2020 to 2023.
- India has an official policy of not commenting or taking sides in internal elections of other sovereign countries but it can try to use its non-governmental leverage by Track II diplomacy to ensure President Muizzu alone cannot sideline India.
- India can rope in other Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) partners. France really wants to make sure International Shipping Lines (ISL) are not compromised and can collaborate with India for Maldives’ security.
Way Forward:
The deep-rooted Chinese investments which come with strings and strategic imperatives is forcing India to quickly adapt to the changing geopolitical situations. India is trying to be accommodative to new realities and Maldives needs to do its bit to ensure it does not use its largely Muslim populace to create rifts in its time-tested partnerships to make the Indian Ocean Region a geopolitical conquest where one wins at the other’s expense.
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