Context: A new study by The Lancet has found that India’s total fertility rate will fall to 1.29 by 2050.
Total fertility rate (TFR)
- The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime if:
- They were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime
- And they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life.
Replacement level of fertility
- Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next. it is considered to be 2.1 children per woman.
- The replacement fertility rate for India exhibits wide variations within the country -- between 1.6 for Punjab and West Bengal, and 3 for Bihar among the large states, according to Indian government data.
How TFR and Replacement level of fertility are connected
- If TFR goes down below 2.1 it indicates that a generation is not producing enough children to replace itself. Thus, indicative of reduction in population in general and depletion of working age population in particular.
Trends in India
- India has witnessed a steadily declining TFR from 6.18 in 1950 to 4.60 in 1980 and 1.91 in 2021.
Reasons
- Experts attribute this to three major reasons, which are as follows:
- India’s consistent push towards population control after its independence.
- Rise in female literacy and gradual rise in their participation in work force.
- Economically parents do not receive much benefit from the children as they used to get, inversely cost to bring them up has substantially gone up.
Long term consequence of lower TFR
- For India, it means we are going to witness a huge depletion in working age population, with one in five Indian would be a senior citizen by 2050.
- Thus, shortage of labour force and resultant social imbalances due to gender preferences.
- Steep rise in elderly population would demand a huge intervention in social security apparatus and mechanism.
A global phenomenon
- Experts believe that by 2050, 76% of countries will witness a TFR below replacement level of fertility. Further this number is predicted to rise by 97% by 2100.