Miscellaneous topics in India’s International Relations

Context: During the recent visit of Indian PM to Egypt, the countries took mutual decision to upgrade their ties to a Strategic Partnership, which is seen as a significant move for India’s ties with the West Asia-North Africa (WANA) region that is long overdue, given their historical ties. The visit was also important because it was the first official bilateral visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Egypt since 1997. There have been visits in between but they have mostly been for the multilateral or plurilateral events.

Historic partnership between India & Egypt: 

• The two countries signed a Friendship Treaty in 1955, and India’s support to Egypt, including during the Suez Canal crisis in 1956, eventually led to the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961, with both as founder members.
• They were also instrumental in the G-77 grouping and “South-South Cooperation” initiatives
• During the Cold War, India and Egypt were united over their desire not to become “camp followers” of either the U.S. or the Soviet Union

Recent Interactions:

• In the recent times their positions on the Ukraine war have been extremely similar — refusing to criticise Russia’s actions but not condoning them either and calling for a diplomatic resolution.
• India’s decision to supply wheat to Egypt, one of the world’s biggest importers that was hit by the blockade on exports from Russia and Ukraine last year, won New Delhi much goodwill in Cairo. 
• The leaders have recently spent much time focusing on multilateral issues, India’s close ties in Egypt’s neighbourhood (especially Israel and Saudi Arabia), food and energy security constraints, and building more cooperation with the Global South including the African Union
• Egypt joined the “New Development Bank” set up by BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa), and is keen to join this grouping that will deliberate new memberships at its Summit in Cape Town this August, where Egypt will seek India’s support.

During the recent visit apart from upgrading ties to strategic level following developments were made

• The two sides are also pursuing closer cooperation in green energy, pharmaceuticals and defence, with MoUs in agriculture, archaeology and antiquities, and competition law.
• Leaders identified green and renewable collaboration will be an important part of future partnership because of the importance the two sides attach to clean energy.
• The setting up of the ‘India Unit’ by Egypt  was welcomed as it highlights ‘whole of the government approach’ to take forward bilateral relations and  also India’s readiness to work closely with Egypt in various areas of mutual interest.
• Prime Minister also interacted with the leaders of Bohra community, who are actively involved in the upkeep of this Fatimid era Shi’a Mosque and highlighted the strong people to people ties between India and Egypt.

Importance of Egypt for India

1. Egypt is the most populous country in West Asia, occupies a crucial geo-strategic location on the international trade map. Egypt hosts the Suez Canal, the channel which connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean and Europe plus - 12% of global trade passes through it.
2. Egypt can play a key role in countering global terrorism. With Al Azhar Mosque and university revered across the Muslim world, a voice of moderation emerging from Cairo to counter the millenarian ideas of global Jihad, espoused prominently by Al Qaeda and Islamic State terror groups, can play a major role in the battle of narratives.
3. Egypt under El- Sisi is totally opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), making India Cairo’s natural partner in countering the MB ideology which is being transmitted by regional influencers including Qatar and Turkey.
4. India’s engagement with Egypt can become part of an energetic but pragmatic exercise to limit Chinese influence as China’s bilateral trade with Egypt is currently at USD 15 billion, double that of India’s USD 7.26 billion in 2021-22 plus Sisi has also been wooing Chinese investments and has visited China seven times in the past eight years.
5. Egypt is a major market for India and can act as a gateway to both Europe and Africa. It is also important to increase India’s influence is increasing in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean Region.

North-Africa in India’s foreign policy matrix:

• Gateway to African continent: The nations such as Morocco and Algeria become geographical gateways to other parts of Africa. This is especially relevant for India given its desire to penetrate Francophone Africa
• Connectivity to Europe: North African nations are also important for Europe which provides many opportunities for India to collaborate with the European Union (EU) on issues such as terrorism, migration, and climate change amongst others.
• Diplomatic Support: India looks  forward to generate employment, develop the youth, advance agricultural technology, and combat issues such as climate change and terrorism, amongst others. Specifically with the North African nations, India also aims to garner support for its bid to gain a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council.
• Critical Imports: Many of the North African Nations are trade partners of India with commodities such as petroleum, machinery, electrical appliances, medical goods, and many others often being exported and imported between the nations. Of these is phosphate which is used for agricultural purposes to enrich soil is a key import from the region. Indeed, Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco account for almost 50 percent of India’s total imports of phosphates resulting in trade deficits occurring in some of the bilateral exchanges.
• Traditional and Non-Traditional Security: The second aspect is defence and counter terrorism. India’s defence relations with nations in North Africa are staggered with Egypt, however recently India also upgraded its relationship with Algeria in 2021 having conducted its maiden maritime partnership off the Algerian coast in the Mediterranean a sign of India’s growing interest in growing its maritime prowess as well. 
• Diplomatic Aid: India has long boosted its image in the North African nations by providing medical, financial, and agricultural aid such as when it donated more than a million dollar to Libya to help stabilise the nation after the fall of Colonel Gaddafi in 2010. Further recently India’s “Vaccine Maitri” programme meant to distribute vaccines for COVID-19 also included North African nations.
• Vibrant Diaspora: Indian workers in nations like Libya are well regarded due to their role as skilled medical professionals. In addition, India has also provided educational scholarships to citizens of the North African nations who often come to India to take advantage of the affordable living costs amongst other things
• Soft-Power Matrix: Many of the North African nations also have a long love affair with Bollywood, making it one of India’s most powerful soft power export apart from aid for the region. Thus, North African nations have even made documentaries on Bollywood due to the wide penetration of Hindi movies in the nation.

Conclusion:

India’s engagement with the North African nations are historic, but still not as immense as other nations such as UAE and Saudi Arabia. There exists immense potential for India to ramp up its presence in North Africa pertaining to trade, defence, and counterterrorism amongst others. In the long run, this region will become an important gateway to India’s global power ambitions and its presence in Africa, and it would do well to increase its activities here.

Context: In an attempt to foster greater cooperation and understanding, US and China have shown signs of willingness to engage in diplomatic dialogue.

Outreach efforts by US

• Recently the Director of CIA made a visit to China in order to stabilize the relationship and prevent a possibility of open conflict.
• US National Security Advisor visited China in May 2023, to maintain channels of communication and ‘manage competition’.
• At G7 meeting in Hiroshima, President Biden emphasizes that US is not looking to decouple from China but to de-risk and diversify its relations.

Instances of Conflict between US China

• Antony Blinken called off a visit in February 2023 to China after Chinese high-altitude balloon appeared above US.
• China is suspicious that QUAD is a mechanism to contain it in Indo Pacific.
• The visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022, further strained the relations between US and China.
• Chinese side publicly stated that US led West wants to contain and suppress China.

US and China moving towards a detente

• It will help in reducing tensions and pave the way for cooperation between them.
• It is acknowledged that they possess the most formidable capacities globally and should commit to shape their policies in a manner that minimizes the likelihood of military confrontation with them.

India’s position in US China Dynamics

• US and India have grown closer over a shared perception of China’s rise.
• US sees India as a major partner in its endeavour to build a regional coalition against China.

Roadmap for India

India must develop a strategic approach to balance China by collaborating with the United States and other countries that share concerns regarding China, all while maintaining its own autonomy. It is crucial to clearly define the boundaries of this strategic alignment, determine India's willingness to engage, and effectively manage expectations on both sides.

Context: The United States and Britain have announced a new strategic pact as their leaders rededicated the “special relationship” to counter Russia, China and economic instability. The leaders (Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak) further concluded that the UK-US relationship was an "indispensable alliance". The leaders acknowledged the importance of the partnership as the U.S.-UK bilateral investment relationship is the largest in the world, with over $1.5 trillion in stock supporting more than 2.7 million jobs in both countries. There was also discussion on current geopolitical crisis and challenges to international stability from authoritarian states such as Russia and the People’s Republic of China; disruptive technologies; non-state actors; and transnational challenges like climate change.

Recent Developments - Atlantic Declaration

• An “Atlantic Declaration” was adopted by the leaders aims to boost industry ties on defence and renewable energy, in the face of growing competition from China. This is seen in furtherance of the Atlantic charter that was signed in 1941. The Atlantic Declaration, includes commitments on easing trade barriers, closer defence industry ties and a data protection deal and steps up co-operation on AI.
• The Atlantic Declaration sets a new standard for economic cooperation, propelling our economies into the future so we can protect our people, create jobs and grow our economies together
• Expansion of subsidies: The Atlantic Declaration includes plans to mitigate some of the impact of US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on the UK economy, with proposals to remove barriers which affected trade in electric vehicle batteries.
• Under current policy, the IRA provides tax credit worth $3,750 (£3,000) for each electric vehicle (EV) manufactured in the US, or which use components mined, processed or manufactured in the country. The UK is already a net exporter of raw materials for EV batteries to the US. But nations without a US trade deal are barred from accessing IRA subsidies

• Critical mineral Partnership: The Atlantic Declaration commits the UK and US to working on a new critical minerals agreement which would give buyers of vehicles made using critical minerals processed, recycled or mined by UK companies access to tax credits.
• Data partnership: The declaration also includes a commitment to a "new UK-US Data Bridge" which would allow UK firms to transfer data freely to certified US organisations without paying a levy. Experts have estimated the change will affect around 55,000 UK businesses and translate close to £100m in direct savings per year.
• Emerging Technologies: The leaders recognized the greatest transformations in global economy since the Industrial Revolution with the concrete materialization of AI (Artificial Intelligence).United states also supported UK’s plan to set up an international summit on AI safety.
• Focus on Euro-Atlantic and Indo-pacific: The leaders reaffirmed their commitment  to deepen unrivalled defence, security, and intelligence relationship across every theatre in the globe and recognized the indivisibility of security in the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific and other regions. 
• Indo-Pacific dialogue: Through the U.S.-UK Indo-Pacific Dialogue leaders agreed to continue find new opportunities to coordinate our approaches, to support ASEAN and ASEAN centrality, to partner with the Pacific Islands, to coordinate on economic and technological advancement, and to contribute to regional peace and stability.
• Reaffirming faith in NATO: The leaders agreed to continuing strengthen NATO’s ability to deter further attempts to undermine Alliance security, in support of NATO’s new Strategic Concept.

Context: As Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to Washington for a state visit in two weeks, the unfolding geopolitical churn in Asia triggered by China’s rise will form a critical background to his talks with US President Joe Biden. In two and a half years, US has made significant strategic gains and reversed the dominant perception that China’s domination of Asia is inevitable and America’s retreat is irreversible.

Recent Development

• The annual Shangri-La Dialogue, which concluded its 20th edition in Singapore witnessed the discussion on changes to capture the shifting strategic trends in Asia. 
• The dialogue highlighted the deepening tensions between the US and China. There was an understanding to mobilise a broad-based coalition to balance China, the United States is seeking to resume high-level talks between the two sides and focus on confidence-building measures to prevent the tensions from escalating into a hot war.
• The US has drawn in its closest partners — the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada – into the grand regional coalition. Acting on the same lines Australia has outlined its strategy of engagement with China while standing up to Beijing’s military bullying.
• United States has elevated the Quad to the summit level.

• It has also unveiled the AUKUS high-tech alliance with the UK and Australia. 
• It has launched trilateral coordination with South Korea and Japan.
• It also unveiled a “local quad” along with Australia, Japan, and the Philippines to counter the Chinese military pressures against Manila.
• The US has been encouraging Japan to raise its military capabilities, modernising the military alliance with South Korea
• US is also revitalising its frayed military partnership with Manila and enhancing security cooperation with Indonesia.

• Further, NATO is now raising its game in Asia. For example, Japan has taken the lead in drawing Europe into Asian security and South Korea is ready to join hands. On the other hand, Australia and New Zealand now participate in NATO deliberations,
• There is also a push for building a stronger strategic partnership with India, which has been a high priority for the US administration, and for the same a “road map” for a significant elevation of bilateral defence cooperation, including technology transfers and joint defence industrial production was recently agreed upon.

Conclusion

Thus keeping in mind the sea change in the Indo-Pacific and the shared interests in stabilising the Asian balance of power are objective realities demanding a solid India-US defence partnership.

Context: The Trump-era policy which focused on  the U.S. to decouple from China is being phased out by a new concept. The U.S. has expressed that it is shifting its policy on China from decoupling to de-risking. The EU has already declared that its approach to China will be based on de-risking.

What is ‘de-risking’?

• After the establishment of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and China in 1979, both the countries embarked on a path of increasing economic interdependence. China gained immensely from this relationship, as it helped the country drastically widen and deepen its diplomatic and economic engagement with the rest of the world.
• As China’s economic and military power grew, its ambition to challenge the primacy of the U.S. in the international system became increasingly apparent. China’s rise not only came at the expense of America’s global clout, but also the latter’s domestic industry, which got “hollowed out” in its four-decade old economic embrace with China. ( This has been highlighted by United States as the weakness of the Washington Consensus, and for which it has floated the New Washington Consensus)
• The Trump administration made it a point to attack the gargantuan bilateral trade imbalance in favour of China. It also wished to keep the U.S’s high technology sector out of China’s reach. The U.S.-China ‘trade war’ started, and bilateral relations were set on course for a “decoupling” from the American standpoint. 
• The Biden administration added its own features into the China policy inherited from Trump. Most recently the label of “decoupling” has been changed to “de-risking”.
• According to the U.S. “de-risking fundamentally means having resilient, effective supply chains and ensuring we cannot be subjected to the coercion of any other country”. For Example the U.S.’s geo-economic initiatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment as well as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity are also supposed to reflect the spirit of de-risking.

Why the Change now?

The policy change has been announced in the wake of several events of high geopolitical significance. 

• The world has just emerged out of the tentacles of the pandemic after three disruptive years and the global economy is hoping for a resulting rebound. 
• The U.S.-China rivalry had peaked in the past few months from the ratcheting of tensions across the Taiwan Strait to the acrimonious spy balloon episode between the two countries.
•  China also witnessed Xi Jinping beginning his second decade of rule over China
• China Under XI and under his third leadership tenure, extended his “peace-making diplomacy” to West Asia, striking gold in normalising the frayed Saudi-Iran ties. 
• Further the U.S.-China relations as a new Cold War and a zero-sum game appears to be risky for the U.S. Bringing more nuance into its earlier decoupling approach could bring down China’s guard and give the U.S. more room to re-consolidate its strength.
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict could have played a pivotal role in enabling the U.S’s policy shift towards China. The Biden administration, unlike its predecessor, has made it a point to reassure its European allies. At a time when China has been backing Russia in its shadow battle in Ukraine against the West, the idea of decoupling hardly appeals to the European Union (EU). The EU has in fact been looking to woo China in order to convince it to stop supporting Russia from skirting Western sanctions.

All of these developments have necessitated the U.S. to recalibrate its posture towards China

What could be the geopolitical ramifications of de-risking?

• The U.S. efforts to keep its allies closer in its geopolitical rivalry against China by adopting the path of de-risking has already won a significant victory in Japan at the G-7 summit.
• The West’s moves to counter China’s rise much more sustainable by facilitating a united front among allies.
• At the same time China has expressed its scepticism to the West’s de-risking approach, portraying it as a façade to the decoupling agenda. It has expressed its disapproval in painting China as the actor responsible for heightening geopolitical risks. According to China, the real source of risks is the U.S., which it alleges to have created instability across the world by pursuing political and military interventions and perpetuating a Cold War mindset.
• For countries like India it will stand to benefit from de-risking by leveraging its benefits like attracting supply chains and confronting China’s aggressive moves, it could also come at a cost.

To read more about New United States policy towards China visit ( https://compass.rauias.com/current-affairs/countering-the-chinese-rise/ )

Context: The project was first mooted in 2000  and despite its perceived potential and the keenness shown by key powers, there was little progress on the project’s implementation for years. One of the reasons was the western sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme. However, Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, after which it was sanctioned by the West, seems to have brought Moscow and Tehran closer, giving a fresh impetus to the NSTC. In February this year, President Vladimir Putin said in his State of the Nation address that Russia was developing the NSTC, which would open up new routes for trade with India, Iran, Pakistan as well as Gulf countries. Recently, Mr. Putin and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi virtually participated in a ceremony where both countries signed an agreement to develop the 162-km Rasht-Astara railway, a critical link in the NSTC.

ABOUT INSCTC

• The INSTC is a 7,200 km-long multimodal transportation network encompassing sea, road, and rail routes to offer the shortest route of connectivity. 
• It links the Indian Ocean to the Caspian Sea via the Persian Gulf onwards into Russia and Northern Europe. It is aimed at reducing the carriage cost between India and Russia by about 30 percent and bringing down the transit time by more than half.
• It was launched in 2000 with India, Russia, and Iran as its founding members and work on actualizing the corridor began in 2002. 
• Since then, INSTC membership has expanded to include 10 more countries – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Syria, Belarus, and Oman. Bulgaria has been included as an observer state. The Baltic countries like Latvia and Estonia have also expressed willingness to join the INSTC.

The INSTC spirals across the following corridor:

• Central corridor: It begins from the Jawahar Lal Nehru port in India’s western state of Maharashtra (in the Indian Ocean Region) and connects to the Bandar Abbas port on the Strait of Hormuz. It then passes through the Iranian territory via Nowshahr, Amirabad, and Bandar-e-Anzali, runs along the Caspian Sea to reach the Olya and Astrakhan Ports in Russia.
• Western corridor: It connects the railway network of Azerbaijan to that of Iran via the cross-border nodal points of Astara (Azerbaijan) and Astara (Iran) and further to Jawaharlal Nehru port in India via sea route.
• Eastern corridor: It connects Russia to India through the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.