Climate Change

When the Arctic Breaks Loose: Polar Vortex Disruptions and the U.S. Winter Storm

Context: A powerful winter storm swept across nearly 17 states in the United States, affecting around 157 million people. The event was triggered by a southward expansion and weakening of the polar vortex, allowing frigid Arctic air to spill deep into mid-latitude regions and cause heavy snowfall, prolonged freezing temperatures, and widespread disruptions.

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Understanding the Polar Vortex

The polar vortex is a large-scale, persistent low-pressure system of extremely cold air that circulates around the Earth’s polar regions during winter. It exists over both the North Pole and the South Pole and plays a crucial role in shaping large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Seasonally, the polar vortex strengthens during winter when the temperature contrast between the poles and mid-latitudes is sharp, and weakens during summer as this gradient reduces.

Under normal conditions, it remains relatively stable and confined to the polar regions, keeping Arctic air locked in.

Types of Polar Vortex

  1. Tropospheric Polar Vortex
    • Located in the lower atmosphere (up to ~10–15 km).
    • Directly influences day-to-day weather, including cold waves, blizzards, and winter storms.
  2. Stratospheric Polar Vortex
    • Exists higher up (15–50 km altitude).
    • Strongest in autumn and winter; weakens or collapses in summer.
    • Sudden disturbances here can cascade downward, affecting surface weather weeks later.

How Polar Vortex Disruptions Trigger Extreme Cold

  • Southward Cold Air Spill:
    When the vortex weakens or splits, large lobes of Arctic air detach and move southward, bringing sudden and intense cold to regions unaccustomed to such temperatures.
  • Jet Stream Distortion:
    A strong polar vortex keeps the jet stream relatively straight. When weakened, the jet stream becomes wavy, allowing cold Arctic air to plunge south and warm air to surge north.
  • Prolonged Cold Waves:
    These altered circulation patterns can trap cold air over an area for extended periods, leading to long-lasting freezes, heavy snowfall, and repeated winter storms, as seen in the recent U.S. event.

Role of Climate Change

Climate change is increasingly linked to polar vortex instability:

  • Arctic Amplification:
    The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the global average. This reduces the temperature difference between the poles and mid-latitudes—the very gradient that sustains a strong vortex.
  • Increased Atmospheric Instability:
    A weaker temperature gradient makes the polar vortex and jet stream more prone to disruption, wobbling, and displacement.
  • Extreme Weather Paradox:
    While global temperatures rise overall, vortex disruptions can paradoxically increase the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events in mid-latitude regions.

Why This Matters

Polar vortex-related events have major economic, social, and infrastructural impacts, including power outages, transport disruptions, crop losses, and public health risks.

For policymakers and disaster managers, understanding these dynamics is essential for climate-resilient planning, improved weather forecasting, and adaptive infrastructure design.

The recent U.S. winter storm underscores that climate change does not eliminate cold extremes—it can rearrange and intensify them, making atmospheric science central to future risk governance.

Cold Wave Conditions in India: Causes, Criteria and Impacts

Context (TH): The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a cold wave warning for several districts in Telangana, highlighting an unusual southward spread of cold-wave conditions. Telangana is also the only South Indian state included in IMD’s core cold-wave zone.

What is a Cold Wave?

A cold wave refers to an abrupt and significant drop in temperature below the normal climatological average of a region during winter.

Role of IMD

The India Meteorological Department monitors winter temperatures and issues colour-coded warnings (Green, Yellow, Orange, Red).
IMD uses minimum temperature thresholds and deviations from the long-term average to classify cold-wave intensity.

Climatological Baseline

Normal winter temperature values are based on IMD’s 1981–2010 climatology dataset.

Criteria for Declaring Cold Wave

1. Plains

Cold wave declared when:

  • Minimum temp ≤ 4°C, or
  • Minimum temp ≤ 10°C and 4.5°C–6.4°C below normal

2. Hilly Regions

  • Minimum temp ≤ 0°C, and 4.5°C–6.4°C below normal

3. Coastal Regions

  • Minimum temp ≤ 15°C and ≥4.5°C below normal

Severe Cold Wave

Declared when:

  • Minimum temp ≤ 2°C, or
  • Temperature is ≥6.5°C below normal

Why Do Cold Waves Occur in India?

1. Western Disturbances

The passage of Western Disturbances brings cold, dry north-westerly winds from the Himalayas and Central Asia.

2. High-Pressure Systems

The Siberian High intensifies and pushes cold continental air masses toward India.

3. Himalayan Snowfall

More snowfall → stronger cold air advection into the northern plains.

4. Clear Skies

Absence of clouds = strong nighttime radiative cooling, causing sharp temperature drops.

5. Dense Fog

Fog blocks daytime solar radiation, worsening cold conditions.

6. La Niña Events

IMD observations show La Niña years bring longer and more intense cold waves.

7. Continental Climate

Interior regions far from the sea lack maritime moderation, making them more vulnerable.

Consequences of Cold Waves

1. Health Risks

  • Hypothermia
  • Frostbite
  • Asthma & COPD exacerbation
  • Cardiovascular stress due to vasoconstriction
    India records ~824 annual deaths due to cold exposure.

2. Agricultural Losses

  • Frost damage to crops
  • Reduced livestock productivity
  • Stress on horticultural crops during flowering/fruiting

3. Infrastructure & Transport

  • Fog-induced delays in rail, road, and air transport
  • Power demand surges → outages
  • Water pipelines may freeze in northern hill states

About the India Meteorological Department (IMD)

  • Established in 1875, IMD is India’s National Meteorological Service.
  • Functions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
  • One of six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) under WMO.
  • Provides:
    • Meteorological observations
    • Weather forecasts
    • Disaster warnings for weather-sensitive sectors
cold wave in india infographic

Conclusion

Cold waves are a recurring winter hazard in India, driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, local geography, and global climate patterns.

With rising climatic variability, timely IMD alerts, climate-resilient agriculture, and public health preparedness have become essential for reducing cold-wave impacts.

Global Push for a Fossil Fuels Phase-Out Treaty

Context: At the IUCN World Conservation Congress (October 2025), members adopted Motion 042, formally recognising fossil fuel production as a direct threat to nature and biodiversity. This marks the first global conservation treaty proposal linking fossil fuels explicitly to biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.

About the IUCN World Conservation Congress

  • Held every four years, the IUCN Congress sets global priorities for nature conservation and sustainable development.
  • It brings together governments, scientists, and civil society to vote on conservation policies and motions shaping global environmental governance.
  • The 2025 Congress witnessed a broad coalition calling for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, modeled on nuclear disarmament frameworks.

About the UNFCCC

  • Adopted: 1992 (Rio Earth Summit) | Came into force: 1994
  • Secretariat: Bonn, Germany
  • Objective: To stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations and prevent harmful climate interference.
  • Conference of Parties (COP): The apex decision-making body.
    • COP28 (2023): Dubai, UAE
    • COP29 (2024): Baku, Azerbaijan
    • COP30 (2025): Belém, Brazil

About the IUCN

  • Founded: 1948 | HQ: Gland, Switzerland
  • Members: 1,400+ (includes states, NGOs, and scientific institutions)
  • Core Role: Acts as the global authority on biodiversity; maintains the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.
  • The new motion strengthens IUCN’s push for legally binding mechanisms to phase out fossil fuel extraction.

Why a Global Treaty Matters

  • Scientific Consensus: Fossil fuels drive ~75% of global GHG emissions and nearly 90% of CO₂ output (UNEP, 2024).
  • Biodiversity Impact: Extraction and combustion are linked to 40% of land degradation and 80% biodiversity loss in ecosystems such as the Amazon and Congo Basins.
  • Economic Dimension: The IMF (2024) estimated global fossil fuel subsidies at $1.8 trillion, undermining renewable energy transitions.
  • Equity Principle: Developing nations demand financial and technological support for a just transition.

Global Production Snapshot (IEA, 2024)

ResourceTop ProducersGlobal Share
OilU.S. (17%), Saudi Arabia (13%), Russia (12%)42%
CoalChina (51%), India (10%), Indonesia (8%)69%
GasU.S. (23%), Russia (17%), Iran (6%)46%

India’s Position

  • India supports “phase-down” (not full phase-out) of fossil fuels, prioritising energy security and equity.
  • Focus remains on expanding renewables, energy efficiency, and green hydrogen to achieve Net Zero by 2070.

Conclusion

The IUCN’s 2025 resolution signifies a global paradigm shift — viewing fossil fuel production not merely as a climate issue but as a biodiversity emergency. The success of any treaty, however, will depend on equitable transitions, financial support, and political consensus between developed and developing economies.

National Red List Assessment (NRLA) Initiative

Context: The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) launched the National Red List Assessment (NRLA) initiative during the IUCN World Conservation Congress in Abu Dhabi.
The initiative marks a major step in building a nationally coordinated framework to assess the conservation status of India’s native species.

About the NRLA Initiative

  • Aim: To develop a National Red List of threatened species in line with IUCN Red List standards.
  • Roadmap: The National Red List Roadmap and Vision 2025–2030 provide strategic direction for the programme.
  • Coverage: Assessment of at least 11,000 species of flora and fauna by 2030.
  • Nodal Agencies:
    • Botanical Survey of India (BSI)
    • Zoological Survey of India (ZSI)
  • Objective: To publish National Red Data Books for plants and animals to guide conservation policy.
  • Alignment: Reinforces India’s commitment to:
    • Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
    • Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF)
    • IUCN Global Red List Standards
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Biodiversity of India

  • Global Position: India is among the 17 megadiverse countries of the world.
  • Hotspots: 4 of the 36 global biodiversity hotspots fall fully or partly in India.
  • Species Richness:
    • 7–8% of global recorded species
    • 7th in mammals, 9th in birds, 5th in reptiles.
  • Legal Framework:
    • Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972
    • Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980
    • Environment (Protection) Act, 1986
    • Biological Diversity Act, 2002

Significance of NRLA

  • Provides a national baseline for biodiversity conservation.
  • Supports evidence-based policy formulation.
  • Enhances species recovery programmes and habitat protection.
  • Strengthens India’s role in achieving global biodiversity targets by 2030.

Way Forward

  • Capacity building of state agencies and research institutions.
  • Integration with local community knowledge for species mapping.
  • Linking NRLA outcomes with climate adaptation and sustainable development strategies.

The NRLA is a landmark initiative that aligns national conservation priorities with global biodiversity goals and creates a scientific basis for protecting India’s rich ecological heritage.

Seas rising faster around Lakshadweep and Maldives 

Context: Recent scientific research using coral microatolls has revealed that sea-level rise (SLR) in the central Indian Ocean, particularly around the Maldives, Lakshadweep, and Chagos Archipelago is accelerating. Earlier studies suggested that significant acceleration started only in the 1990s, but new evidence shows that seas in this region have been rising since the late 1950s.

Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Implications of Climate Change. 

Rising Sea Levels in Indian Ocean

  • Rising sea levels are among the most visible and threatening consequences of global warming. The Indian Ocean, which is the third largest ocean basin in the world, has been experiencing sea-level rise at an accelerated pace. 
  • The Indian Ocean’s levels have been rising at around 3.3 millimetres per year, which is higher than the global average, which in turn amplifies changes in ocean dynamics and atmospheric circulation. 
  • These shifts have a direct impact on coral reefs, fisheries, and low-lying island nations such as the Maldives, Lakshadweep, and the Chagos Archipelago. 

Key Findings of the Study: 

A team of researchers from the National University of Singapore studied coral microatolls in the Maldives. The study reconstructed sea-level history from 1930 to 2019, extending the existing records by nearly 90 years. The findings showed that : 

  • Sea levels rose by around 0.3 metres over the 90-year period.
  • The rate of rise has accelerated over time: it was between 1 and 1.84 mm/year from 1930 to 1959, and between 3.91 and 4.87 mm/year from 1990 to 2019. This indicates that sea-level rise in the Indian Ocean began accelerating in the late 1950s. 
  • The periods of coral growth interruption coincided with El Niño events, negative Indian Ocean Dipole events, and the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle, all of which influence sea levels and stress corals.

Implications of Rising Sea Levels: 

  • Ecological: Coral reefs face bleaching due to reduced sunlight, warmer waters, and acidification, threatening biodiversity and marine productivity.
  • Human & Economic: Low-lying islands risk inundation; livelihoods from fisheries and tourism are endangered; flooding, erosion, and storm surges increase vulnerability.
  • Geopolitical & Security: Strategic islands like Maldives and Lakshadweep face displacement, migration, and sovereignty challenges, impacting maritime trade and security.

Way Forward

  • Strengthening Scientific Monitoring: Expanding tide gauge networks, improving satellite observations, and using natural recorders such as coral microatolls can help fill critical gaps in sea-level data, and thus improve the accuracy of climate models and projections.
  • Ecosystem-Based Adaptation: Restore mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs as natural buffers.
  • Policy & Governance: Integrate sea-level rise into planning and disaster frameworks; secure climate finance and technology for island nations.
  • Resilient Infrastructure: Build climate-proof housing, elevate infrastructure, and strengthen flood protection.
  • Regional & Global Cooperation: Use IORA, UNFCCC, and regional platforms for joint monitoring, data sharing, and coordinated adaptation.

10x jump in Whale Stranding along South-West coast in India

Context: The ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) has documented a nearly tenfold rise in whale strandings along India’s south-west coast over the past decade. 

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Species in news (Bryde’s whale, Blue whale); Whale strandings.

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Whale Stranding or beaching is the phenomenon where whales or other mammals (E.g., dolphins), either dead or alive, often come onto the shore because they are old, sick, injured and/or disorientated.

Key Findings of the Study

  • The annual proportion of whale strandings along the south-west coast of India increased nearly tenfold to around 3% per year during 2014-2023.
  • Primary Hotspots: Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa emerged as the primary hotspots together accounting for the majority of reported whale strandings.
  • Stranded species:
    • Bryde’s Whale (IUCN: Least Concern) was identified as the most commonly stranded species
    • Blue Whale (IUCN: Endangered) strandings were recorded only occasionally.

Causes behind rise in Whale Strandings : 

  • High vessel traffic, intense fishing activity, noise pollution, and shallow coastal shelves significantly contributed to the increased stranding risk.
  • Elevated Chlorophyll-A levels during the South-West monsoon, indicating higher ocean productivity, were linked to whales moving closer to the coast to feed.
  • Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and climate change. 

Way Forward

  • Real-time alerts and marine megafauna conservation networks, training for fishers and officials and improvement of citizen science platforms for data collection. 
  • Expedited building robust marine mammal conservation infrastructure, especially in biodiversity hotspots like the southwest coast. 

Tracking India’s Climate Goals

Context: As per the latest data from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, India has achieved 50% of its installed electricity capacity (242.8 GW) from non-fossil fuel sources out of the total 484.8 GW installed capacity five years ahead of its 2030 target. 

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims and Mains: India’s Climate Commitment Goals: Achievements, Govt. Initiatives, Challenges and Way Forward. 

India’s Climate Commitment Goals

  • India submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2022. India aims to:
    • Achieve 50% of its installed electric power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.
    • Reduce its GDP emission intensity by 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
    • Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from forest and tree cover by 2030. 
  • At COP26 (Glasgow, 2021), India announced its long-term goal to achieve the target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070. 
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India achieves 50% Non-Fossil Fuel Power Generation Capacity: 

As per the latest data from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy-

  • India has achieved 50% of its installed electricity capacity (242.8 GW) from non-fossil fuel sources out of the total 484.8 GW installed capacity in June 2025, five years ahead of its 2030 target. 
  • The 50% share of non-fossil sources in installed electricity capacity was contributed by sources such as large hydropower, nuclear, and renewable energies like wind and solar. E.g., In 2024 almost 30 GW of renewable energy was installed, of which solar energy stood at nearly 24 GW.

Future Targets: 

  • India’s stated climate objective is to achieve at least 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based electricity capacity by 2030. For the target to materialise, significant contributions need to come from nuclear power. 
  • India's current nuclear energy capacity is 8.78 GW. India is  currently building 10 nuclear reactors that are expected to become operational during this timeframe to scale this capacity to about 17 GW by 2030. 

Energy Capacity vs Generation: 

  • The 50% share of non-fossil fuels in installed capacity does not mean half of India’s electricity is clean. Electricity generation from renewable sources is intermittent and dependent on timing, seasonality, and climate. As such, the share of non-fossil fuels in electricity generation is lower than its share in installed capacity.
  • Data from the Central Electricity Authority show that in May 2025, non-fossil fuel sources, including large hydro and nuclear, accounted for 28% of electricity generation in India.
  • Electricity itself forms a small part of the energy basket. Less than 22% of India’s total energy consumption is done in the form of electricity. The rest happens through direct burning of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas.

Therefore, electricity forms about 22% of India’s total energy consumption, and non-fossil fuel sources account for about 28% of electricity generation. This means clean energy from non-fossil fuel sources accounts for just about 6% of India’s total energy consumption. 

Progress on Forestry Target

  • According to official data submitted to UNFCCC, about 2.29 billion tonnes of additional carbon sink has already been created by 2021. 
  • It is estimated that India has likely added 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of additional carbon sink. (Official data is to be released soon by the next edition of India State of the Forest Report). 
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Emissions Intensity Target: 

  • There is less information on the progress being made on the emissions intensity target. India aimed to reduce its emissions per unit of GDP at least 45% from 2005 levels by 2030.
  • The latest data (2020) on emissions intensity show that India had already reduced it by 36% from 2005 levels. 

Policy-Driven Progress Fuelling Clean Energy Growth: 

The achievements reflect the success of policy design and implementation of key Flagship programmes such as:

  • PM-KUSUM (Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyan) empowered lakhs of farmers by providing solar-powered pumps enabling sustainable agriculture, and opened avenues for Agrovoltaics and feeder-level solarisation. 
  • PM Surya Ghar Yojana- brought about the rooftop revolution fostering decentralised energy generation.
  • Solar Park Development
  • National Wind-Solar Hybrid Policy 

Way Forward

India can further expand renewable power generation by- 

  • Getting access to international finance and technology that it is entitled to under the provisions of the Paris Agreement
  • Expanding the deployment of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)
  • Deployment Pumped Hydro Storage
  • Accelerated investments in Green Hydrogen 
  • Accelerating the deployment of Bharat Small Modular Reactors. 

 As the country moves toward the goal of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070, the path forward must be inclusive and driven by technology. 

Climate Change is fuelling Wildfires in Europe

Context: Wildfires are raging in several Mediterranean countries, including Spain and France, after the increased heat waves incidents in Europe.  

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Climate change: Key trends; Mediterranean Type of Climate. 

Wildfires in Europe: Key Trends

  • Wildfires have burnt over 2.2 lakh hectares of land since January 2025 in Europe. This is more than double the average for this time of year over the past two decades.
  • The number of wildfire incidents have also surged. This has forced thousands of people to evacuate their homes.

Factors favorable for Wildfires:

  • Hot summer and strong winds: The Mediterranean region's hotter, drier summers put it at high risk of wildfires. Once fires start, plentiful dry vegetation and strong winds in the region can cause them to spread rapidly and burn out of control.
  • Climate change: As per the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Europe has warmed at twice the global average since the 1980s. That warmer baseline means higher temperatures can be reached during heatwaves, which exacerbates the risk of wildfires.  
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Europe’s New Climate Reality: 

Greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning coal, oil and gas, have heated the planet by about 1.3 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. 

  • Europe is the fastest-warming continent as it is witnessing an average temperature rise of around 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade compared to 0.2 degrees Celsius globally. The continent is experiencing an increase in the frequency of heatwaves in recent years.

Reasons Include: 

  • Europe’s proximity to the Arctic region- which is by far the fastest-warming part of Earth. As a result, the Arctic region contributes to the soaring temperatures in Europe, making it more vulnerable to heatwaves.
  • Feedback systems: In continental regions like Europe, rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration, causing rapid dried-out soil moisture. This leads to positive feedback- Dried-out soils send more sensible heat back into the atmosphere, which warms up and further aggravates aridity. 
  • Changes in the behaviour of jet streams (rapid currents encircling the Earth from west to east at high altitudes). Recent studies show that Europe is increasingly becoming vulnerable to a phenomenon called double jet stream. This occurs when the main jet stream temporarily splits in two branches. This results in an area of weak winds and high-pressure air between the two branches that causes extreme heat. Double jet streams become more common when land mass heats up in early summer.

Mediterranean Type of Climate:

  • A Mediterranean climate, or dry summer climate is a major climate type described by Köppen classification.
  • The temperate climate occurs in the lower mid-latitudes (normally 30° and 45° latitude North and South of the Equator)
  • Such climates typically have hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters, with summer conditions being hot and winter conditions typically being mild (winter rain climate). 
  • Mediterranean vegetation: Trees with hard, waxy leaves to reduce water loss; Evergreen shrubs, bushes etc. 
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Also Read: Forest Fire Incidents in India 

Assessing India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme Targets

Context: The Indian government recently notified greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity targets for entities across key industrial sectors under the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS).

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Key facts about India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme. 

What is the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) ? 

  • Launched in 2023 under the Energy Conservation (Amendment) Act 2022. 
  • It is a market based mechanism designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by pricing carbon and facilitating trading of carbon credits. 
  • CCTS introduces carbon pricing through two key mechanisms to ensure comprehensive carbon reduction efforts.
    • Compliance Mechanism: Mandates energy-intensive industries to meet sector-specific GHG reduction targets. Entities that emit below their set intensity targets earn Carbon Credit Certificates (CCC); while those exceeding targets must purchase credits or face penalties. 
    • Offset Mechanism: Allows voluntary participation from entities outside the compliance framework to earn carbon credits by reducing emissions. 
  • As of now, 8 heavy industrial sectors are included under the compliance mechanism of CCTS: Aluminium, Cement, Paper and Pulp, Chlor-Alkali, Iron and Steel, Textiles, Petrochemicals, Petroleum Refineries. 
  • Administered by: multiple bodies like the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) and the National Steering committee for the Indian carbon market.  
  • Trading of Carbon Credit is expected to begin by October 2026. 
  • The CCTS aims to help India achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels. 
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Assessment of India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme: 

Lack of Ambitious Targets: 

  • India’s overall energy emissions intensity is projected to decline by 3.44% per year from 2025 to 2030. The manufacturing sector should ideally reduce its emissions intensity by 2.53% per year.
  • But current CCTS targets for industries show only a 1.68% per year drop. This suggests the CCTS targets are not ambitious enough to achieve India's NDC targets and decarbonisation goals. 

Limited Sectoral Coverage:  

  • CCTS currently covers only 8 of the 9 heavy industrial sectors.
  • Several major emitters are excluded like- thermal power plants, transport, agriculture, and MSMEs, limiting the scope and impact of the scheme.

Sectoral vs. Economy-Wide Focus

  • The scheme largely focuses on sectoral/entity-specific targets rather than an integrated, economy-wide reduction strategy. This narrow focus on select industrial players may risk  intra-sector credit trading without meaningful reduction in national-level emissions. 

A robust carbon market should drive aggregate decarbonisation with participation of major sectors, and not just trading between a few large players. 

EU’s New Climate Goal and Carbon Credits 

Context: The European Union (EU) includes International CO2 credits in the climate goal for the first time.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: About Carbon credit and EU’s climate targets. 

EU’s New Climate Goal and Carbon Credits

  • The European Union has proposed a legally-binding climate target to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 from 1990 levels. 
  • This proposal introduces a notable flexibility to member states which will allow them to use carbon credits purchased from developing nations to meet a limited portion of their emissions offsetting target.
  • The EU is allowing up to 3% of its target to be met using carbon credits purchased from developing countries, via a UN-backed market from 2036 onwards.

The EU’s existing climate targets require countries to meet the goals entirely by cutting emissions at home. 

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This also raises questions over the effectiveness of carbon-credits: if they are a verifiable tool to drive global emission reductions, or do they risk becoming another form of greenwashing, allowing wealthier nations to offset rather than truly transform their domestic economies.  

Bonn Climate Change Conference 2025 

Context: The 62nd Bonn Climate Change Conference was held in Germany in June 2025. This mid-year meeting sets the stage for key negotiations ahead of COP30 in Belem, Brazil.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Key highlights of Bonn Climate Change Conference.

About Bonn Climate Change Conference: 

  • An annual mid-year meeting held under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  • The conference usually takes place in June every year.
  • The conference is formally known as the Sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SBs). 
  • Along with the annual Conference of the Parties (COP), it is the only other regular climate summit hosted by the UNFCCC.

Objectives: 

  • To discuss technical and scientific aspects of climate negotiations, and set the agenda for COP, which usually takes place in November.

The results of the negotiations in Bonn are highly influential on decisions made at the COP.

Key Highlights of the Bonn Climate Change Conference 2025: 

Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA):  

  • The Paris Agreement established GGA to reduce vulnerability to climate change, enhance adaptive capacity, and strengthen resilience. However, progress on the GGA has been slow, primarily due to the lack of measurable indicators to track implementation and effectiveness.
  • At Bonn 2025 : 
    • About 490 indicators were shortlisted, from 9,000 suggestions with the aim of consolidating them further to about 100 at COP 30. These indicators will be used to track adaptation actions under health, water, agriculture, and infrastructure etc.  
    • A set of global “headline indicators” will be created which will be complemented by region- or country-specific sub-indicators, ensuring contextual relevance.
    • Disagreements persisted around finance and means of implementation.

Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) 

  • It was created to scale up action to meet the 1.5°C target.
  • At Bonn 2025 it was agreed that:
    • MWP will remain facilitative and non-punitive.
    • No new commitments or obligations will be imposed on countries.
    • It will support voluntary cooperation and dialogue among Parties.
    • A proposal was made to develop a digital platform to share mitigation tools and experiences.

Loss and Damage Fund: 

  • The conference noted that the Loss and Damage Fund remains underfunded. 
  • Proposed to integrate L&D into NDCs and streamlining technical assistance.
  • Operational clarity on the Santiago Network could not be achieved.

Just Transition Work Programme: 

  • Parties emphasised that just transition must be anchored in equity, development rights, and national contexts. 
  • Social dialogue, labour rights, and meaningful stakeholder engagement, especially that of Indigenous Peoples, were highlighted as foundational to just transition.
  • Parties also flagged the economic impacts of unilateral measures, such as carbon border taxes (tariffs imposed on imported goods based on their carbon footprint) and trade barriers, and the role of critical minerals in energy transition. 
  • Parties agreed to address these issues through linked agenda items, and this would remain a bone of contention at COP30.

Gender Action Plan:  

  • A new Gender Action Plan was proposed to reflect evolving socio-economic and climate realities.
  • However disagreements emerged over key terminology, particularly use of terms like “gender diversity” and “intersectionality”.
  • Key thematic areas proposed for inclusion:Unpaid care work, Sexual and reproductive health and Gender-based violence.

Climate Finance:  

  • There was no formal consensus or breakthrough on climate finance at the Bonn Climate Change Conference 2025, and key decisions were deferred to COP30 in Belém, Brazil.
  • The “Baku to Belém” Roadmap aimed at mobilising $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance was acknowledged as a consultation process, but no agreement was reached on its operational structure.

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

Context: A recent study presents a novel approach to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) as a potential means to directly cool the Earth.

Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Concept and Mechanism of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Method.

What is Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI)?

  • SAI is a proposed method of cooling the planet and reducing the impacts of climate change by adding a layer of tiny reflective particles (aerosols) to the high atmosphere. 
  • Aerosols reflect sunlight back into space, increasing Earth’s albedo and lowering surface temperatures by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the earth.
  • The method was inspired by volcanic eruptions, which have been known to have a cooling effect on the planet by spewing aerosols into the air.
  • How well SAI works depends on the type of material injected, the timing of the injection, and the location. 

Key Findings: 

  • Injecting 12 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide every year at an altitude of 13 km in the local spring and summer seasons of each hemisphere could cool the planet by approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius. 
  • To achieve 1°C cooling, 21 million tonnes/year of sulphur dioxide would be required.
  • If the particles were injected at an even higher altitude in the subtropics, only 7.6 million tonnes would be required annually.
  • Higher altitude injection is more effective because particles stay for longer. At lower altitudes particles are more likely to be caught in clouds and washed out by rain. Despite this, researchers are exploring low-altitude spraying because it is technically less challenging.

While there are some benefits to this method, using three times the usual amount of aerosols carries greater risk.

Risks and Side effects of SAI 

  • Social and geopolitical risks: If one country injects aerosols into the stratosphere, all countries will be affected, it could affect global climate patterns, leading to conflicts.
  • Delayed recovery of the ozone hole and increased risk of acid rain.
  • Cooling could mask warming on the ground and make countries complacent about curtailing emissions.

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