Rising Geopolitical Conflicts in Arctic Region

Context: International observers have raised concerns about escalating tensions in the Arctic Region, warning that if left unchecked it could eventually spark conflict in the region. 

Drivers of Geopolitical conflict in Arctic region

• Vast resources: Beneath the frozen Arctic landscape lie untapped reserves of natural resources such as fossil fuels, rare earth elements, phosphates, and copper as well as lucrative fishing grounds. According to a Geological Survey report, the Arctic region holds 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of its untapped natural gas reserves. 
• New trade routes: The melting of Arctic sea ice has opened up new commercial trade routes creating new strategic opportunities for global powers. E.g., The Northeast Passage running along Russia’s Arctic coast. This route, connecting the Bering Strait to Norway, could shorten the maritime distance between East Asia and Europe by about 8,000 kilometers compared to the Suez Canal route.
• Lack of legal safeguards: Unlike Antarctica, the Arctic lacks legal safeguards and is mainly governed by UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea), allowing nations to claim territories and build military infrastructure. This has led to overlapping claims and rising tensions. 

Geopolitical Tensions and Conflicts

• Russia: 
  • In 2007, Russia sent the MIR-1 submarine to the North Pole to plant a Russian flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic ice cap — a symbolic demonstration of its presence and capabilities. 
  • Russia has maintained a number of military bases in the Arctic, most of them dating back to the Soviet era. 
  • In 2022, it conducted joint naval exercises with Beijing in the East China Sea, which indicated strategic implications for Arctic security. 
  • Russia views the Northern Sea Route as an essential part of its Arctic strategy, aiming to establish it as a major shipping route connecting Europe and Asia.
  • Russia has made extensive claims over the Arctic seabed, including the Lomonosov Ridge, which it asserts is a natural prolongation of its continental shelf. This has led to overlapping territorial claims with other Arctic nations, particularly Canada and Denmark. 
  • Russia has suggested that Norway’s Arctic island of Svalbard should fall under its control. 
• China:  Even China, an Arctic outsider by geography, has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in 2018.  China is planning to construct its first nuclear-powered icebreaker. Investments in infrastructure and resources by China raise concerns among Arctic nations.
• NATO:  Since Sweden and Finland joined NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the alliance has intensified its military presence in the region, including large-scale exercises near the Russian border in Finland in 2024. 
• US and Canada Dispute: The Northwest Passage, a potential Arctic shipping route that winds through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago, is a contentious point. Canada considers the passage part of its internal waters, granting it control over navigation, while the US claims it is an international waterway which means that any nation has freedom of navigation in the Passage.
• Greenland Issue: The US President has expressed interest in buying Greenland, citing strategic reasons. Greenland hosts the Thule Air Base, a key US military installation. 

Also Read: Greenland: The island of US interest

The Arctic remains a region of immense potential. The Arctic may not yet rival the Suez Canal or the Malacca Strait as a global trade artery, but the slow, silent competition beneath its melting ice is reshaping the contours of international relations.