Introduction
The Indus Waters Treaty has once again become a major point of tension between India and Pakistan after India decided to keep the Treaty “in abeyance” following the 2025 Pahalgam terror attack.
India has stated that the Treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan credibly ends cross-border terrorism. The development has triggered diplomatic, legal, and geopolitical debates regarding transboundary river governance, international law, and regional security.
About the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on 19 September 1960 between India and Pakistan, with the World Bank acting as a facilitator.
The Treaty was signed by:
- Jawaharlal Nehru
- Mohammad Ayub Khan
after nearly nine years of negotiations.
River Allocation under the Treaty
The Treaty governs six rivers of the Indus basin:
Eastern Rivers – Allocated to India
- Ravi
- Beas
- Sutlej
India has unrestricted use over these rivers.
Western Rivers – Primarily for Pakistan
- Indus
- Jhelum
- Chenab
India is allowed limited non-consumptive use for:
- Hydropower generation
- Irrigation
- Navigation
- Domestic use
Institutional Mechanism
The Treaty established the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) consisting of one commissioner from each country.
Three-Tier Dispute Resolution System
- Permanent Indus Commission – Routine issues
- Neutral Expert – Technical disputes
- Court of Arbitration – Legal disputes
The Treaty is often regarded as one of the world’s most durable water-sharing agreements because it survived wars and prolonged political tensions between the two countries.
Significance of the Treaty
For India
The Indus system supports:
- Agriculture
- Hydropower
- Development needs of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan
For Pakistan
The river system is critical for:
- Irrigation
- Food security
- Agriculture
Over 70% of Pakistan’s irrigation needs depend on the Indus basin.
Thus, the Treaty has historically ensured predictability in water sharing and reduced the possibility of water-related conflict.
India’s Decision to Hold the Treaty in Abeyance
Following the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor in 2025, India announced that it would keep the Treaty “in abeyance.”
This means:
- India no longer considers itself fully bound by Treaty obligations temporarily
- Data-sharing mechanisms have been disrupted
- Meetings of Indus Commissioners have stopped
The move has affected Pakistan’s:
- Water planning
- Flood forecasting
- Drought preparedness
Pakistan’s International Strategy
Being the downstream country, Pakistan has attempted to internationalise the issue through multiple forums.
Pakistan’s Approaches
- United Nations Security Council
- International Court of Justice
- World Bank
- United Nations Human Rights Council
Pakistan argues:
- The Treaty contains no clause permitting suspension or abeyance
- India’s move violates international law
India, however, has rejected external intervention and refused participation in certain arbitration proceedings.
India’s Strategic Response
1. Infrastructure Development
India is accelerating long-delayed projects on the Indus basin rivers to utilise its legitimate share under the Treaty.
Projects focus on:
- Hydropower generation
- Storage capacity
- Better utilisation of eastern rivers
India argues Pakistan repeatedly delayed projects through legal objections.
2. Strengthening the Techno-Legal Case
India has formed expert committees and argues that circumstances have changed significantly since 1960 due to:
- Population growth
- Climate change
- Increased water demand
- Developmental needs of Jammu & Kashmir
- Technological advancements
India believes the Treaty framework needs renegotiation or modernisation.
Challenges and Concerns
Diplomatic Tensions
The dispute may escalate into a prolonged diplomatic and legal confrontation.
Security Risks
Pakistan has warned of serious consequences, raising concerns about regional stability.
Climate Change
Changing rainfall patterns and glacier melt make fixed water-sharing arrangements increasingly difficult.
International Precedent
India’s decision links water cooperation with terrorism-related national security concerns, creating an important international precedent.
Conclusion
The Indus Waters Treaty remains one of the most significant examples of transboundary water cooperation in the world. However, changing geopolitical realities, terrorism concerns, climate change, and developmental pressures have strained the framework.
India’s decision to keep the Treaty in abeyance reflects a broader shift in strategic thinking where national security concerns increasingly influence international agreements.
Going forward, both countries will need to balance security interests, humanitarian concerns, and sustainable river management while avoiding further regional instability.