Context: For the second time since April, Iran and Israel are on the brink of all-out war as Iran fired almost 200 missiles at Israel, which has vowed to respond.
Why is it a Cause of Concern for India?
Conflict between the two countries is a major worry for India, which has strategic ties with both Israel and Iran.
- Relations with Israel:
- The strategic relationship with Israel, especially the defence and security partnership, has grown and deepened under the Narendra Modi government.
- The two sides have strong shared concerns over extremism and terrorism.
- Israel has emerged as a major defence supplier alongside the US, France, and Russia — and New Delhi remembers that the Israelis had stepped up at its time of crisis during the Kargil war in 1999.
- Relations with Iran:
- Iran has been a major supplier of crude to India.
- Also, the two countries share concerns on terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan, and on the Taliban’s treatment of minorities and lack of an inclusive and representative government in Kabul.
- The Chabahar port is a project of great strategic and economic importance to India.
- Past tensions between Israel and Iran have brought discomfiture to New Delhi. Widening of the conflict in the Middle East will make it difficult for India to stay ambivalent.
What are India’s Stakes in the Iran-Israel Conflict?
India’s adeptness at maintaining balanced relationships with both Israel and Iran has been a notable aspect of its foreign policy.
However, the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East poses significant challenges that could impact India in multiple ways.
- Impact on Diaspora:
- India’s large expatriate community in the region is at risk if the conflict intensifies.
- With approximately 18,000 Indians residing in Israel and 5,000-10,000 in Iran, and around 9 million Indians living across the Gulf and West Asia, any escalation would endanger these individuals.
- Economic Interests:
- India’s energy security is intricately linked to the West Asian region, which supplies about 80% of its oil.
- The potential disruption of oil supplies due to conflict could lead to increased energy prices, impacting India’s economy.
- Although India has mitigated some of the effects of global oil price volatility through discounted Russian oil, a new conflict could negate these efforts and exacerbate economic challenges.
- New Delhi is also concerned about the impact of these tensions on recent initiatives like the 10-year India-Iran MoU for the development of Chabahar port.
- Any conflict or US sanctions could affect India's plans for Chabahar port and connectivity projects with Afghanistan and Central Asia.
- Strategic Imperatives:
- India’s strategic interests in the region are substantial.
- The country has cultivated significant ties with major Arab nations, Iran, and Israel, and is invested in initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This corridor is crucial for economic integration and strategic positioning.
- The ongoing West Asian tensions have hindered meetings of the IMEC steering committee.
- Additionally, the India-Israel-UAE-US I2U2 initiative and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) linking Indian cargo routes to Russia could be jeopardized.
- An expanded conflict could unravel the regional consensus necessary for stability and cooperation.
- Ensuring Diplomatic Balance:
- India’s strategic relationship with Israel, particularly in defence and security, has been robust, highlighted by support during critical moments such as the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas.
- Conversely, India’s ties with Iran are also significant, especially considering Tehran’s role as a major crude supplier and its alignment with India’s counter-terrorism objectives.
- Balancing relations with both Israel and Iran have historically been challenging for India. Notable incidents include diplomatic confrontations between Israeli and Iranian representatives in New Delhi, underscoring the delicate nature of India’s position.
What Role Can India Play?
- Therefore it is important for India that the conflict doesn’t take a wider regional dimension and India wants that all issues be addressed through dialogue and diplomacy.
- India’s stance on de-escalation and return to diplomacy is crucial for preserving its national interests amidst the volatile regional dynamics.
- New Delhi has so far not offered to play a mediatory role.
- To play any meaningful role as a possible mediator, India will need, apart from communication channels with both sides, significant leverage with them as well.
Conclusion
- As the situation evolves, India’s diplomatic manoeuvres will be essential in safeguarding its people, economic interests, and strategic objectives while navigating the complex web of Middle Eastern geopolitics.