Global Nuclear Order

The current global nuclear order came into existence during the era of cold war under which the capitalist bloc was led by the USA and the socialist bloc was led by the USSR. The basic understanding that evolved and developed between the two powers was:

• First was the need for bilateral mechanisms to prevent tensions from escalating to the nuclear level that might lead to Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
• Second was the need for curbing proliferation as this would have exacerbated the insecurity dilemma.

From Back-Channel Negotiations to Strategic Stability

• To serve the first purpose the two countries decided to have a secret back-channel negotiation mechanism which was responsible in diffusing the tensions around Cuban Missile Crisis, this further developed through a direct hotline between the head of the two blocs. It was this piecemeal step which ultimately led to the establishment of the Nuclear Risk Reduction Center that ensured strategic stability and control over the nuclear arms race.

From NPT to NSG

• In order to achieve the second goal and curb proliferation the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. initiated multilateral negotiations in Geneva in 1965 on a treaty to curb the spread of nuclear weapons, this culminated with the signing of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is the cornerstone of Global Nuclear order today as more than 190 countries are adherents to the same.
• This was followed by the formation of London Club as an ad-hoc mechanism in 1975 to ensure that  export controls are in place such that nuclear technology, transferred for peaceful purposes, not be used for Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNEs) (This was seen as a necessary step after India conducted  its first nuclear test in 1974 which it called as Peaceful Nuclear Explosion).
• This ad-hoc mechanism has converted itself today into the Nuclear Suppliers Group consisting of 48 countries, which observe common guidelines for exporting nuclear and related dual-use materials, equipment, and technologies. 

In a nutshell it can be concluded that the Global Nuclear Order has served well on both these fronts as the World has not witnessed any nuclear confrontation, though there had been an increase in Nuclear Weapon State in the same time frame.

Secondly the proliferation has been a near success as only four countries have gone nuclear post the NPT against the predictions of 20 nuclear weapon states. Thus the two nuclear hegemons shared a notion of ‘strategic stability’ based on assured second strike capability and guaranteed by the enormous arsenals that both had built up had ensured that the world was free from nuclear confrontation.

Challenges to Global Nuclear order:

• The order which was easy to maintain during the bipolar world, today faces critical challenges due to emergence of multipolar world order and changing geo-political dimension. The foremost challenge today in the era of the New Cold War comes from China which has emerged as an economic and technological rival for the USA, but unlike the first cold war is economically intertwined with the USA.
• China has resented the U.S.’s naval presence in the South China and East China Seas and since the last Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, has steadily built up its naval and missile capabilities.
• The old fault lines between USA and Russia (the successor of Soviet) has re emerged which can be seen not only with present West led sanctions on Russia (due to Russia-Ukraine war) but was also seen before with declining bilateral cooperation mechanism between the two countries
• The U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the  Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on grounds that Russia was violating it. 
• The New Start Treaty which has not seen verification meetings and will come to lapse in 2026.
• Russia has recently de-ratified the CTBT to bring it on a par with the U.S., raising concerns about the resumption of nuclear testing
• Russian nuclear sabre rattling to warn the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the U.S. against escalation in Ukraine has revived nuclear concern.
• The nuclear submarine AUKUS deal (Australia, U.S., U.K.) with Australia, a non-nuclear weapon state, is raising concerns in the NPT community. All this points to the fact that the old strategic stability is weakening.

Another major geo-political shift has been among the allies of the United States that have traditionally relied on the US ‘extended deterrence’ guarantees now willing to explore and expand their own capacities and also to form regional mini-lateral alliances. For example Japan’s decision to double its defence spending over the next five years.

This gets further amplified by the fact that the domestic compulsions are turning the U.S. inwards and Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan having the technical capabilities to develop an independent nuclear deterrent within a short time.

Thus it can be concluded that in the era of a new Cold War, the global nuclear order faces challenges with the emergence of a multipolar world. China's economic rivalry and military build-up, renewed tensions between the USA and Russia, and shifts in alliances signal a weakening of old strategic stability.