Context: There was an assessment made by Central Intelligence Agency as per which China will likely launch its military mission against Taiwan sometime around 2027. It has made efforts to ready itself for this mission continue to make ripples among the tiny island nations of the South Pacific where it seeks to set up bases to tighten its grip in the region.
Recent Steps taken by China that highlights China flexing its muscle:
- The Solomon Islands have been in the news recently with China trying to enter into a security pact with that country by persuading it to quit its present arrangement overseen by Australia. China has also been eyeing Vanuatu.
- China has been trying to coerce the countries in the region to toe its line on Taiwan, especially when taken with Federated State of Micronesia.
- Australia definitely has reasons to worry about China's attempts to win over the South Pacific island nations. Strategic access to these island nations could help China's military manoeuvres in the event of a conflict involving Australia or the US. This fear has been testified by China's deployment of its anti-ship ballistic missiles DF21 and DF21D.
- China's recent manoeuvres should worry India also. It was reported that one of the missions of Xi Jinping during his recent summit with President Putin was to seek Russian supply of nuclear fuel, which China needs badly for expanding its arsenal at a feverish pace.
- The closer Russia comes within China's sphere of influence the more uncertain will be Russia's dependability as a friend if the India-China conflict were to worsen.
- China's role as a peacemaker in the Middle East could also be problematic. Most nations will see the peace brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the region as a symbol of its increasing heft as a global mediator and its ability to fill the space held so long by the US. It could become a leading arms supplier of the region and bring in massive investments. The promise of a $400 billion investment in Iran is one of them.
- Further China could even help Iran overcome its bottlenecks and realise its nuclear ambitions. India's involvement in Iran's Chabahar port project could be jeopardised in the long term and if China succeeds in peddling its influence in Yemen, with its base also in Djibouti on the horn of Africa, its presence in the region will be formidable.