Context: The postponement of the 2021 Census in India raises various questions and concerns. One plausible explanation offered is the strategic delay by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to influence the upcoming delimitation process in anticipation of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
About Census
- Census is a complete enumeration of the entire population of any country.
- It provides information on the size, distribution, socioeconomic characteristics, demographics etc of a country's population.
- The responsibility of conducting the decennial Census rests with the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India under Ministry of Home Affairs.
- Conduct of census in India is guided by the Census Act, 1948.
- Census is conducted every 10 years. Till date, India has successfully conducted 15 successive censuses since 1872.
Understanding Delimitation
· Delimitation refers to periodic attempts to ensure that the shares of different States in Lok Sabha seats are similar to their respective population shares, and also that all constituencies have the same population size as far as possible, as required under Article 81 of the Constitution.
o Impact: The upcoming delimitation is expected to benefit states with higher population growth since 1973, potentially increasing the Lok Sabha seats for northern states at the expense of southern states.
Reasons for Delaying the Census
- Electoral Strategy:
- The 84th Amendment stipulates that delimitation must be based on the first census after 2026. If the census occurs before this, any delimitation would have to wait until after the next census, likely pushing it into the 2030s.
- The forthcoming delimitation exercise is likely to shift the balance of Lok Sabha seats in favour of States that have experienced relatively fast population growth since 1973. This means, that the seat shares of the northern States will grow at the expense of the southern States. Electoral prospects of BJP will improve, since it has a much stronger base in the north than in the south.
- Thus, delaying the census until at least 2026 could strategically benefit the BJP by aligning the delimitation timeline with the 2029 elections.
- So By postponing the Census, the BJP may enhance its electoral prospects, especially in the northern states where it holds a stronger base.
Consequences of the Delay
- Welfare Schemes: The delay in census data affects the implementation of welfare programs, such as the National Food Security Act, which could benefit from updated demographic data.
- For example under National Food Security Act, 2013 67% of the population is entitled to subsidised food grains. Under the 2011 Census, India’s population was about 121 crores, hence PDS covered approximately 80 crore people. However, population growth over the last decade should mean PDS coverage to around 92 crore people but the current delay in Census data is depriving these people of subsidised food entitlements
- Legal Challenges: The extended postponement could be viewed as an abuse of governmental privilege, potentially infringing on fundamental rights, and might lead to legal challenges.
- As setting the date of the Census is the Central government’s privilege under the law but postponing the 2021 Census by more than five years can be construed as an abuse of privilege and infringement of people’s fundamental rights
Benefit of Undertaking regular Census:
- Comprehensive Demographic and Socio-cultural Data: A census collects authentic and detailed information on various aspects such as demographic profiles, economic activities, literacy and education levels, as well as data on housing, urbanization, fertility rates, and mortality. It also gathers specifics about different ethnic and social groups, languages, religions, migration patterns, and disabilities. This broad spectrum of data is essential for understanding the composition and needs of a population.
- Foundation for Government and Administrative Planning: The data obtained from a census is critical for government at all levels. It serves as a primary resource for planning and making policies that target specific needs and issues identified through the census. This data aids in making informed decisions that can lead to more effective governance and the allocation of resources where they are needed most.
- Granular Data for Local Governance: A unique feature of the census is that it provides primary data down to the smallest administrative units, such as villages or urban wards. This granularity allows local governments to plan and provide services that are finely tuned to the specific needs of their communities.
- Snapshot of Population Characteristics: The census acts like a photograph capturing a moment in time, providing a snapshot of the population and its characteristics at regular intervals. This snapshot helps in monitoring changes and trends in the population over time, aiding in forecasting and strategic planning.·
- Demographic Trends and Insights: By consistently tracking changes in the population, a census highlights trends in growth, aging, migration, and other demographic shifts. Understanding these trends is vital for predicting future needs, such as educational facilities, healthcare services, and infrastructure development.
- Electoral and Constituency Delimitation: Census data is crucial for the delimitation of electoral constituencies. It ensures that representation is balanced and based on the latest population data, thus upholding the principle of electoral equity and fairness.
- Financial Allocation and Grants: The data from a census is also used by finance commissions to allocate central funds to states. These allocations are based on population figures, ensuring that resources are distributed in proportion to the number of people they are meant to serve.
Opposition's Role and Possible Actions
- Advocate for Timely Census: The opposition can push for a timely completion of the Census to ensure updated data for administrative and welfare purposes and this could also delay the delimitation process to after the 2029 elections.
- Legal Approach: Taking the issue to the Supreme Court to contest the delay as an infringement of people’s fundamental rights.
- Women's Reservation and Delimitation- The 106th amendment mandates a one-third reservation of Lok Sabha and state assembly seats for women. This reservation is set to be implemented following a delimitation exercise based on the first post-2023 census data.
- Now, a legal interpretation exists that allows women's reservation to advance through its own delimitation, independent of the broader process. This opens a route for advocating an early census and timely implementation of women's reservation, potentially ahead of the more comprehensive delimitation.
Conclusion:
The delay in the 2021 Census has far-reaching implications, not only for electoral politics but also for governance and welfare distribution. It presents a complex interplay of legal, constitutional, and political strategies, with significant consequences for the democratic process in India.