Civil War in Sudan and India’s Rising Household Debt

1. Civil War in Sudan

Context: El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur in Sudan, witnessed a large-scale massacre after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The incident marks a grim escalation in Sudan’s ongoing civil war.

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Infographic Disclaimer: Map not to scale.

Background:

Sudan, located in Northeast Africa and bordered by the Red Sea, is the continent’s third-largest nation and the world’s leading producer of gum arabic. Since April 2023, the country has been engulfed in a brutal conflict between the SAF and the RSF — paramilitary forces that once fought together during the ouster of long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019.

Nature of Conflict:

  • Rivalry for Power: The war stems from a leadership struggle between SAF chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”) over control of the state and military integration.
  • Territorial Split: The RSF controls much of western and central Sudan, including Darfur and Kordofan, while the SAF holds the north and east, operating from Port Sudan.
  • El Fasher Capture (Oct 2025): RSF’s capture of the North Darfur capital resulted in mass killings and ethnic cleansing, effectively partitioning Sudan.
  • Proxy Involvement: Regional powers have turned the conflict into a proxy war — with the UAE reportedly backing the RSF, and Egypt and Iran supporting the SAF.

Consequences:

  • Humanitarian Crisis: Over 24 million Sudanese face acute food insecurity; famine conditions persist in Darfur and Kordofan.
  • Mass Displacement: More than 14 million people have been displaced, creating the world’s largest internal displacement crisis.
  • State Disintegration: The central government has collapsed, halting Sudan’s fragile post-2019 democratic transition.
  • Regional Fallout: Refugee influxes and arms trafficking have destabilised neighbouring nations such as Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt.

2. Indian Household Debt Rising Faster than Assets

Context: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Indian households are accumulating debt faster than they are generating assets, as per comparative data between FY 2019–20 and FY 2024–25.

Key Findings:

  • Debt–Asset Gap: Financial liabilities have risen 102% since 2019–20, while asset creation has increased by only 48%.
  • GDP Share: Household financial assets declined from 12% to 10.8% of GDP, while liabilities increased from 3.9% to 4.7%.
  • Net Savings: India’s household savings have touched a five-decade low, reflecting growing reliance on debt-driven consumption.
  • Portfolio Trends:
    • Mutual Fund Investments: Increased from 2.6% to 13.1% of household portfolios.
    • Currency Holdings: Declined from 11.7% to 5.9%, indicating digital and market-linked preference.
    • Bank Deposits: Slightly increased to 33.3% of total assets.

Implications:

  • Rising financial stress due to increasing dependence on credit.
  • Weakening long-term financial resilience and retirement preparedness.
  • Broader macroeconomic concerns — reduced savings mean lower domestic investment capital and higher systemic credit risk.

Way Forward:

Sudan’s civil conflict underscores the fragility of post-revolution states and the danger of militarised governance. Simultaneously, India’s rising household debt highlights the need for stronger financial literacy, savings incentives, and responsible lending policies to sustain inclusive growth.

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