Context: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared the monsoon onset over Kerala on May 24, 2025, eight days ahead of its normal date schedule of June 1. The onset of monsoon marks the beginning of the four-month (June-September) southwest monsoon season over India, which brings over 70% of the country’s annual rainfall.
Relevance of the Topic: Prelims & Mains: Key facts about Indian monsoon- southwest monsoon season over India.
What factors contributed to the early onset of Monsoon?
Multiple, large-scale atmosphere-oceanic and local factors developed and favoured the early monsoon onset this year. The monsoon arrived over the south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood areas on May 13, against a normal of May 21.
The IMD termed the onset took place under very favourable conditions, including:
1. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): It is one of the most important and complex ocean-atmospheric phenomena influencing Indian monsoons with origins in the Indian Ocean. A key feature is that a disturbance of clouds, wind and pressure moves eastward at a speed of 4-8 metres per second. Within 30 to 60 days, MJO winds can travel around the world and cause significant weather changes during their movement. In a favourable phase, it can enhance rainfall over India during the monsoon season.
2. Mascarene High: Mascarene High is a high-pressure area found around the Mascarene Islands (in the south Indian Ocean) during the monsoon period. The variation in the intensity of high pressure is responsible for heavy rains along India’s west coast.

3. Convection: An increase in the convective activity, i.e., the vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere also brings rainfall. E.g., a convective system over Haryana moved south-eastward and led to rains in the Delhi region (in mid May).
4. Somali Jet: It is a low-level, inter-hemispheric cross-equatorial wind band originating near Mauritius and north Madagascar. During May, after crossing the east coast of Africa, it reaches the Arabian Sea and the west coast of India. A strong Somali jet is associated with the strengthening of monsoon winds.
5. Heat-low: Following the movement of the Sun to the northern hemisphere, marking the summer season, a low-pressure area develops in the Arabian Sea. The development of a heat-low pressure zone over Pakistan and adjoining areas acted as a suction device for moist air along the monsoon trough, and its strong presence influences good monsoon rainfall.
6. Monsoon trough: It is an elongated low-pressure area extending from the heat low to the north Bay of Bengal. The north-south swinging of this trough causes rainfall during the June–September period across the core monsoon zone. Pressure gradient and monsoon onset vortex, a cyclonic formation in the Arabian Sea, also play a role in good monsoon.
7. Neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions were observed during the period, which typically support a normal or stronger monsoon, unlike El Niño years that often suppress rainfall over India.
What is the onset of Monsoon?
The monsoon season in India typically lasts from June to September, although its timing and intensity can vary across different regions.
- Pre-monsoon period (March to May): During this time, temperatures rise across the country due to the increasing solar radiation. As summer approaches, the landmass of the Indian subcontinent heats up faster than the surrounding oceans, causing a low-pressure area to develop over the region.
- Arrival of the southwest monsoon (end of May to mid-June): The southwest monsoon is responsible for the majority of the rainfall in India. It begins with the onset of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean are drawn towards the low-pressure area over the Indian subcontinent, creating a monsoon trough.
- Factors affecting onset of monsoon:
- Intense heating of the Indian landmass and formation of intense low pressure.
- Shifting of ITCZ over Gangetic plain.
- Withdrawal of sub-tropical westerly Jetstream.
- Deflection of SE trades after crossing the equator towards Indian west coast.
- Factors affecting onset of monsoon:
- Advancement of the monsoon (June to July): The monsoon winds gradually advance across the country, starting from the southernmost state of Kerala and progressing northwards. This northward progression is known as the “monsoon onset line” and is closely monitored by meteorological departments.
- Onset over different regions: The onset of the monsoon occurs at different times across various regions of India. The western coast and northeastern states receive the monsoon rains first, followed by the central and northern parts of the country. The Himalayan region experiences the monsoon last.

- Monsoon progression and rainfall: Once the monsoon sets in, it brings heavy rainfall to different parts of India. The amount and distribution of rainfall vary from region to region. The western coast and north eastern states generally receive more rainfall compared to the arid regions in the northwest.
How does IMD declares that monsoon has arrived in India?
Following are the guidelines to be followed:
- Rainfall
- If after 10th May, 60% of the available 14 stations report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala be declared on the 2nd day.
- Low outgoing longwave radiation
- INSAT derived OLR value should be below 200 wm-2 in the box confined by Lat. 5-10ºN and Long. 70-75ºE.
- Wind field
- Depth of westerlies should be maintained upto 600 hPa, in the box equator to Lat. 10ºN and Long. 55ºE to 80ºE. The zonal wind speed over the area bounded by Lat. 5-10ºN, Long. 70-80ºE should be of the order of 15 – 20 Kts. at 925 hPa. The source of data can be RSMC wind analysis/satellite derived winds.
Note – Similar to above the onset of NE monsoon also has its own criteria:
India Meteorological Department (IMD) made the following criteria in August 1988 for declaring NE monsoon onset, which was further amended in August 2006 (IMD, 2008).
The criteria are:
- Withdrawal of Southwest monsoon up to Latitude 15-degree N
- Onset of persistent surface easterlies over Tamil Nadu Coast
- Depth of easterlies up to 850 hPa over Tamil Nadu Coast
- Fairly widespread rainfall over coastal Tamil Nadu, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas.
Impact of Climate Change on Monsoon:
- According to IMD, there has been overall decrease in monsoonal rainfall of about 6%-10% since 1951. However, changes in monsoon remains within 10% of the long period average (LPA).
- Intermittent rainfall has increased with increase in dry as well as wet spells.
- Onset of monsoon and its withdrawal has also been delayed. For e.g. based on data from 1901-1940, the date of withdrawal was 1 September which was revised to 17th Sept in 2020. Despite this, monsoon 2023 was delayed by around 20 days.
- It has impacted the regional spread also. Indo-Gangetic plains + Meghalaya, Nagaland, Arunachal -> reduced. Saurashtra and Kutch, southeastern Rajasthan, northern Tamil Nadu, -> Increased
- Rainfall extremes have risen by 3 times.



