Context: The US President Donald Trump has intended to impose trade tariffs on BRICS nations which likely will have an impact on India.
Relevance of the Topic: Mains: Detailed question on possible impact of US tariff hike and suggestions for India.
Trade dynamics between the US and India
- India-US Bilateral Trade: Present Status:
- The US is India’s largest trading partner.
- The US is also one of the few countries with which India had a trade surplus in 2023-24.
- In FY24, the bilateral trade between India and the US stood at a record US$ 118.2 billion as against US$ 128.78 billion in FY22.
- In FY24, India had a trade surplus of US$ 36.8 billion with the US.
- US is the 3rd largest investor in India with cumulative FDI inflows of US$ 65.19 billion from April 2000-March 2024.
- India’s major exports to the US: Engineering goods, Electronic goods, Gems and Jewellery, Pharmaceutical Products, Light crude oil and petroleum, electrical, and others.
- India’s imports from the US: Mineral fuels and oils, Pearls, precious, and semi-precious stones, Nuclear reactors, boilers and machinery, Electrical machinery etc.

Issues pertaining to trade and tariffs between India and US
- Asymmetrical tariffs: The US alleges India of enjoying more tariff relaxations but does not provide the same in reciprocity to the US.
- Trade imbalance: The positive Balance of Trade of India remains a persistent concern for the US.
- Lack of concessions: India provides less amount of concessions in trade to the US as both nations lack any Free Trade Agreement. E.g., The US motorcycle company Harley-Davidson withdrew from India due to high tariff rates.
- Service Export disputes: The US-India free trade agreement is delayed due to the difference in opinion in Mode-4 type of service export.
- Mode-4 is a type of service export that means a person temporarily immigrating to a destination nation to provide services.
- Most Favoured Nation clause: If India wishes to provide concessions in tariff to the US, the MFN clause of the World Trade Organisation compels India to provide the same concessions to other trade members like China, which can impact trade balance of India.
- Agriculture subsidies: Nations like the US criticize the subsidies to Indian farmers claiming them to be a trade distortion practice.
Due to all the above issues the US President Donald Trump is of the opinion to impose trade tariffs on India to uphold the principle of reciprocity in global trade.

Potential Impacts on India
- Reducing competitiveness: The possible high tariffs will reduce the competitiveness of the Indian products in the US market, reducing the profits of Indian exporters.
- Widening of trade deficit: A reduction in the exports to nations like the US will impact the trade balance of India, pushing it towards the negative side.
- Pressure on foreign exchange: Trade imbalance of India may reduce the dollar inflow in India reducing the foreign exchange reserve.
- Sectoral slump: Indian sectors like pharmaceuticals, IT sector, textile sector and jewelry sector may face a crisis situation due to the reduction in the exports to one of the largest markets i.e., US.
- Hampering investment: The tariff hikes may make foreign investors skeptical about the future of India-US trade relations hampering the investment in the Indian market.
- Currency depreciation: Reduction in the export will have a cascading impact on the Indian rupee, leading to weakening of Indian currency.
Way Forward for India
In these challenging circumstances India have various structural, diplomatic and institutional solutions;
- Export diversification: Majority of Indian exports i.e., 90% are limited to five countries. India should look for diversification of export destinations with a special focus on Latin American and African nations.
- Diplomatic engagement: India should engage with the US administration to accelerate the process of the US-India Free Trade Agreement by assuring equal trade rights and benefits to the US.
- Enhancing product competitiveness: India should invest in long-term investments like:
- Reducing cost of production by skilling and reskilling of labour; reducing legal compliance cost of manufacturers and automation of the assembly line.
- Improving connectivity to reduce logistics cost from 12% to 8% of GDP.
- Trade facilitation by enhancing ease of doing business.
- Capacity building of Special Economic Zones by focusing on a few large SEZ instead of multiple small SEZs.
The US-India trade relations are expected to witness a roller-coaster ride due to aggressive policies of the Trump administration. The need of the hour is to enhance competitiveness, boost domestic consumption and explore alternative markets to create a cushion against the US tariff jerks.











