Context: The upcoming BRICS summit in South Africa marks a crucial test for Indian diplomacy amid global geopolitical complexities. While BRICS past influence is debated, its potential to reshape world politics emerges, given its global representation exceeding the UN Security Council and G7, though less than G20.
About BRICS
- The term BRIC was first introduced in the 2001 by Jim O'Neill, who was the chairman of Goldman Sachs. It comprised of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
- The BRIC country leaders held their first format summit in 2009 at Yekaterinburg, Russia.
- South Africa was added in 2010.
- BRICS grouping has 42% of the global population, 23% of the global GDP, 18% of the global trade.
The Present scenario of Global Governance
- The failure and undemocratic nature of global governance are widely acknowledged. The ineffective and unrepresentative global governance institutions such as UNSC, G - 7 have led to their downfall.
- Despite their shortcomings, forums like BRICS are stepping in to fill this void, even if inadequately. In a time of global uncertainty and shifting geopolitical dynamics, countries are looking to platforms like BRICS to navigate these challenges and exert influence.
- Recent events like the Ukraine conflict and China's rise have revitalized BRICS. While BRICS and similar groups like SCO, won't create fully democratic global governance, they can spark conversations about inclusivity.
- These forums may not be perfect due to competing interests i.e., Countries like India - China, but they can promote dialogue on more representative global governance. Imperfect institutions that reflect current realities are preferable to a single, outdated structure.
- International politics should embrace democratic imperfections over hegemonic perfection.
New Delhi’s Dilemma
- India's current geopolitical decisions are complex and not straightforward. The question of where India fits in the global geopolitical landscape is challenging.
- Western perspectives often interpret India's involvement in groups like BRICS and SCO in the context of the Ukraine conflict and tensions between the West and Russia.
- India's participation in non-western forums like BRICS, SCO, and the global South is a response to the undemocratic structures of institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and UNSC created after World War II. India doesn't aim to form an anti-US/West bloc either.
- Geographically, historically, and developmentally, India belongs to BRICS, SCO, and the global South. However, India's collaboration with China within these groups poses difficulties, given that China's objectives diverge from those of other developing nations, and it aims to establish its own hegemony.
- Structurally and aspirationally, India is moving towards groups like the G20, G7, and Quad, but gaining significant influence in these forums is a distant goal. India is situated amidst an emerging geopolitical faultline, with interests on both sides, without full allegiance to either. This positioning might make India a bridge between divides or expose it to emerging geopolitical conflicts.
- One danger in current global geopolitics is the rise of competing blocs. China and Russia are aligning their interests, potentially creating opposition to the US - led status quo.
- India historically opposes bloc formation, favoring equitable global governance and multipolarity. Yet, India might inevitably become entangled in these dynamics, even if it opposes them.
The China Question
- Amidst its pursuit of a multipolar world and alternative global governance, New Delhi faces a pivotal question: does each step taken contribute to the global ascent of China?
- The need for robust, non-western forums and potential dedollarisation is acknowledged, yet these very mechanisms might inadvertently fuel China's rise and bolster the yuan.
- The notion that dedollarisation would directly strengthen India's rupee is a misconception, as is the belief in substantial shared geopolitical interests between China and India. Their aims may intersect instrumentally in non-western institutions, but their ultimate objectives diverge fundamentally.
- China's size, economic sway, Belt and Road Initiative, and diplomatic reach assure its impact on an expanded BRICS, overshadowing India's relatively constrained resources. Paradoxically, as India works to fortify non-western frameworks, thus weakening the post-World War II order, it inadvertently aids China's revisionist pursuits.
- India is confronted with a choice: endorse a China-centric or West-centric world order or navigate the delicate balance between the two.
- While advocating for a more inclusive global governance and protecting its national interests, India must temper China's influence in non-western forums. This must be done while avoiding alienation of other global South nations attracted to China's expansion efforts.
- Navigating this geopolitical complexity involves asserting India's position in forums like BRICS and SCO, curbing China's growing influence, addressing western expectations, and securing a role in Eurocentric platforms such as the UNSC and G7 - all concurrently.
India must tread thoughtfully, ensuring its actions align with its goals while skillfully managing the tensions of a multifaceted global landscape.