Economy

Breaking Ground: Why Land Acquisition Slows India’s Infrastructure Push

Context: Land acquisition has emerged as the single largest bottleneck in India’s infrastructure projects reviewed under PRAGATI (Pro-Active Governance and Timely Implementation). Government data show that land acquisition alone accounts for 35% of project delays, while environmental clearances and right-of-way (RoW) issues together contribute to 73% of delays nationwide. This underscores a persistent governance challenge at a time when India is scaling up capital expenditure to fuel economic growth.

What is Land Acquisition?

Land acquisition refers to the government’s power to acquire private land for public purposes such as roads, railways, defence, industrial corridors, urban infrastructure, and social projects.

In India, this process is governed by the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement (LARR) Act, 2013.

Key safeguards under the Act include:

Social Impact Assessment (SIA): Mandatory assessment of impacts on livelihoods, infrastructure, and local communities before acquisition.
Consent Norms: Prior consent of 80% of affected families for private projects and 70% for Public–Private Partnership (PPP) projects.
Compensation Framework:
- 4× market value in rural areas
- 2× market value in urban areas
Solatium: An additional 100% of compensation to account for the involuntary nature of acquisition.

While these provisions strengthen fairness and transparency, they also lengthen timelines and increase project costs.

Why Does Land Acquisition Cause Delays?

Several structural and administrative factors contribute to delays:

Lengthy Procedures: SIA studies, public hearings, and consent processes are time-consuming.
Litigation Risks: Disputes over valuation, consent, and rehabilitation often lead to prolonged court cases.
Federal Complexity: Land is a State subject, leading to uneven implementation across states.
Social Resistance: Inadequate trust, fear of livelihood loss, and displacement concerns fuel opposition.

India’s Expanding Infrastructure Landscape

Despite these hurdles, India’s infrastructure push is unprecedented:

Capital Investment: The Union Budget 2025–26 allocated ₹11.21 lakh crore (3.1% of GDP) for capital expenditure.
Roads: Second-largest road network globally; 1,46,145 km of National Highways (2024).
Railways: 99.2% electrification of the Broad Gauge network by 2025.
Aviation: Third-largest domestic aviation market after the US and China.
Ports & Shipping: Under Sagarmala 2.0, cargo handling reached 1,630 MT, improving India’s global shipment ranking from 44th to 22nd.
Urban Transport: Third-largest metro network globally, spanning 1,013 km across 23 cities.
Rural Water: Jal Jeevan Mission achieved 80% rural tap water coverage by early 2025.

Way Forward

To reconcile rapid infrastructure growth with social justice:

Digitise Land Records: Reduce disputes through clear titling.
Time-bound SIAs: Standardise and streamline assessment timelines.
Negotiated Settlements: Promote land pooling and consent-based models.
Stronger Rehabilitation: Ensure livelihood security to build trust.

Farmer Suicides in India: Patterns, Causes and Policy Gap

Context: A 28-year analysis of NCRB data (1995–2023) reveals that farmer suicides in India remain a persistent, regionally concentrated crisis, with a sharp resurgence in 2023 after nearly a decade of decline. The pattern underscores deep structural vulnerabilities in Indian agriculture that welfare measures have only partially mitigated.

Scale and Long-Term Trends

Between 1995 and 2023, about 3.94 lakh farmers and agricultural labourers died by suicide—an average of ~13,600 deaths annually. The crisis peaked during 2000–2009, accounting for nearly 1.54 lakh deaths, with 2002 recording the highest single-year toll (17,971).

After 2010, suicides declined steadily, coinciding with expanded rural wage employment. However, 2023 marked a reversal, with 10,786 suicides, a ~75% jump over 2022. Notably, the profile has shifted: agricultural labourers (6,096) now outnumber cultivators (4,690), signalling distress beyond landholding farmers.

Regional Concentration

The crisis is geographically skewed. Maharashtra (4,151) and Karnataka (2,423) together accounted for the largest share in 2023. Over the long term, southern and western India contribute ~72.5% of total farmer suicides.

Andhra Pradesh and Telangana together have recorded ~1.7 lakh deaths over 28 years, reflecting chronic vulnerability in rainfed, cash-crop-dependent regions.

Role of Welfare Interventions

Post-2010 declines align with welfare expansion, especially MGNREGA, which provided alternative income during agrarian stress. Some states demonstrated sharp turnarounds: Kerala reduced suicides from 1,118 (2005) to 105 (2014), and West Bengal reported zero cases by 2012—highlighting the importance of income smoothing and social protection.

Structural Drivers of Distress

Rainfed Vulnerability: ~52% of India’s net sown area is rainfed, disproportionately linked to suicides.
Debt Trap: ~50% of agricultural households are indebted; average debt exceeds ₹74,000.
Trade Exposure: Post-1990s liberalisation reduced income support amid rising import competition.
Input Cost Inflation: Fertiliser, seed, and pesticide costs rose >300% since the early 2000s, while real farm incomes stagnated.

Way Forward

Income Assurance: Expand MSP procurement beyond rice–wheat; pilot price-deficiency payments.
Risk Protection: Reform PM Fasal Bima Yojana with automatic, weather-triggered payouts.
Rainfed Resilience: Scale integrated farming systems (millets–pulses–livestock) under NICRA in cotton belts.
Labour Security: Stabilise wages for agricultural labourers; replicate Kerala’s Ayyankali Employment Guarantee during lean seasons.

Bank Frauds in India: Fewer Cases, Bigger Losses

Context (RBI): The Reserve Bank of India in its Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2024–25 highlights a paradox: fraud cases declined sharply, but the total amount involved surged, pointing to concentration of risk in high-value advances.

Key Findings from the RBI Report

Overall Trend:
Fraud cases declined to 23,879 in FY25 from 36,052 in FY24, but the value jumped to ₹34,771 crore from ₹11,261 crore.
Court-Linked Reclassification:
A major spike arose from 122 cases worth ₹18,336 crore, re-reported after compliance with the Supreme Court’s principles of natural justice requiring borrower hearings.
H1 FY26 Snapshot (Apr–Sep):
Cases fell to 5,092 (from 18,386), while the amount involved rose to ₹21,515 crore.
Digital Frauds:
Card and internet frauds constituted 66.8% of cases by number in FY25, reflecting high-frequency, low-value incidents.
Loan (Advances) Frauds:
Advances-related frauds accounted for about 33.1% of the total amount by value, despite fewer cases.
Bank-Group Pattern:
- Private banks: 59.3% of cases
- Public Sector Banks (PSBs): 70.7% of the total amount involved

Why the Number of Frauds Fell

Digital Transaction Controls:
AI-based monitoring, velocity checks, and risk-based authentication across core banking platforms have curtailed small-value fraud attempts.
Stronger KYC Regime:
Mandatory re-KYC, video-based customer identification, and centralised KYC records reduced impersonation and mule accounts.
Early Warning Systems (EWS):
Automated alerts for unusual account behaviour enabled faster freezing of suspicious transactions, aided by account-level dashboards.
Consumer Awareness:
SMS alerts, helplines, and nationwide cyber awareness campaigns improved customer response time to fraud attempts.

Why Value of Frauds Rose Sharply

Legacy Loan Frauds:
Large corporate and consortium loan frauds often surface after forensic audits, inflating total values in a single year.
Reclassification Impact:
Earlier under-reported or disputed cases were re-examined and reported afresh, adding high-ticket amounts.
Concentration in Advances:
Credit-related frauds involve large exposure sizes, unlike retail digital frauds that are frequent but low in value.

Way Forward

Risk-Based Supervision:
Intensify scrutiny of large-value advances using dynamic risk-scoring and borrower heat maps.
Unified Fraud Intelligence:
Integrate fraud registries across banks and non-banks for real-time red-flag sharing through interoperable platforms.
Digital Payment Safeguards:
Introduce cooling-off periods and beneficiary verification for first-time or high-risk transactions.
Board-Level Accountability:
Mandate periodic fraud-risk reviews by bank boards with fixed response timelines and governance dashboards.

India’s Increasing Push for Free Trade Agreements

Context: Amid slowing global growth, supply-chain disruptions, and rising geopolitical uncertainty, India is actively signing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) as part of a strategic shift to secure markets, investments, and technology in a volatile global order.

Free Trade Agreement (FTA)

An FTA is a binding trade pact between countries or economic blocs that reduces or eliminates tariffs, quotas, and other trade barriers to promote cross-border trade in goods and services.

Why India Is Pushing FTAs

1. Market Access for Exports

FTAs provide preferential access to overseas markets, benefiting labour-intensive sectors.
Example: The India–UAE CEPA offers duty-free access for about 90% of Indian exports, leading to a 12% export rise in the first year.

2. Investment Gains

Stable trade rules under FTAs attract long-term foreign investment.
Example: The India–EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) commits $100 billion of investment over 15 years.

3. Improved Competitiveness

Lower tariffs on inputs help India integrate into global value chains.
Example: Under the India–ASEAN FTA, Indian textile exports to ASEAN grew by 15%.

4. Expansion of Services Trade

Modern FTAs increasingly cover services and mobility.
Example: The proposed India–UK FTA seeks improved market access for Indian professionals in IT and healthcare.

5. Geopolitical Alignment

FTAs act as strategic stabilisers by strengthening partnerships with key regions. Agreements with QUAD partners, the EU, and Indo-Pacific countries reinforce India’s strategic position.

6. Technology Access

Trade agreements facilitate access to advanced technologies.
Example: The India–Australia ECTA improves access to renewable energy and critical mineral technologies.

Key Concerns in India’s FTA Strategy

Trade Imbalances: Imports under pacts like AITIGA have outpaced exports.
Low Utilisation: Only about 25% of exporters use FTA benefits due to complex rules and paperwork.
Rules of Origin (RoO) Misuse: Risk of third-country goods entering India via FTA partners.
Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs): Strict standards in developed markets limit real market access.
Domestic Vulnerability: Dairy and farm sectors fear competition from subsidised producers abroad.
Sustainability Pressures: Measures like the EU’s CBAM add carbon-related costs to exports.
Overdependence Risk: Excessive bilateralism may weaken India’s multilateral bargaining power.

Way Forward

Simplify & Digitise RoO to cut compliance costs and prevent misuse.
Support MSMEs through export facilitation and awareness programmes.
Align PLI Schemes with FTA objectives to boost high-value manufacturing.
Improve Trade Logistics via ports, ICDs, and customs digitalisation.
Sectoral Strategy: Push strengths (services, textiles, gems) while protecting sensitive sectors.
Sustainability Readiness: Prepare industry for NTBs and carbon regulations.
Regular FTA Reviews: Modernise older FTAs like AITIGA to correct imbalances.

India’s Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Slowdown

Context: Recent Commerce Ministry data reveal that 466 Special Economic Zone (SEZ) units have shut down over the last five years across seven SEZs, signalling structural stress in India’s flagship export-promotion framework. Closures accelerated after the COVID-19 shock, peaking in FY25 (100 units) and FY22 (113 units).

About Special Economic Zones (SEZs):

India announced its SEZ policy in 2000 under the Foreign Trade Policy, later institutionalised through the SEZ Act, 2005 and SEZ Rules (2006). SEZs were envisaged as duty-free enclaves to promote exports, attract domestic and foreign investment, generate employment, and create world-class infrastructure. Section 18 of the Act also allows International Financial Services Centres (IFSCs) within SEZs, a provision operationalised through GIFT City.

Current Status of the SEZ Sector:

Despite rising exports and investments, the sector shows signs of stagnation. Employment declined marginally from 31.94 lakh to 31.77 lakh (FY25), while exports doubled from ₹7.59 lakh crore (FY21) to ₹14.63 lakh crore (FY25) and investments rose from ₹6.17 lakh crore to ₹7.82 lakh crore. However, sectoral stress is evident: gems and jewellery units fell from ~500 (pre-2019) to ~360 by FY22, reflecting vulnerability to global demand shocks and policy rigidities.

Consequences of the SEZ Slowdown:

Export Headwinds: U.S. tariffs and compliance rigidity have slowed SEZ export growth to below 4% YoY (FY24–25).
Idle Capacity: 25–30% capacity underutilisation during seasonal demand dips undermines efficiency.
Competitiveness Loss: Competing economies like Vietnam attract three times more FDI due to flexible domestic-linkage rules.
Fiscal Impact: Over 35 units sought de-notification since 2023, implying an estimated ₹2,800 crore annual revenue shortfall (customs and income tax).
Employment Risks: The gems and jewellery SEZs employ about 1.05 lakh artisans; declining U.S. orders led to 12,000+ job losses in FY25.

Way Forward

India must recalibrate SEZs to a post-pandemic, geopolitically fragmented trade environment.

Policy Flexibility: Allow controlled domestic subcontracting (job-work) with fair duty adjustment, akin to China’s dual-use SEZ model.
Global Branding: Reposition Indian SEZs via coordinated outreach with Invest India.
Investment Protection: Negotiate modern Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) aligned with global best practices.
Innovation Push: Launch an SEZ Innovation & Skill Mission offering tax incentives for R&D, design, and upskilling.
Digital Integration: Seamlessly link SEZs with the National Single-Window System to cut approval delays.

Conclusion:

The SEZ slowdown reflects not failure, but policy inertia amid changing global trade dynamics. Targeted reforms can restore SEZs as engines of export competitiveness, jobs, and investment.

RBI Measures for Macroeconomic Stability

Context: To reinforce macroeconomic stability amid easing inflation and resilient growth, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)—through the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and liquidity management tools—has announced a coordinated set of monetary and liquidity measures.

Key Measures by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

1. Repo Rate Cut (25 basis points to 5.25%)

The RBI reduced the repo rate—the rate at which it lends short-term funds to banks against government securities.

Objective: Stimulate economic activity by lowering borrowing costs and ensuring adequate liquidity.

Impact: Bank lending rates and EMIs decline, corporate borrowing becomes cheaper, and money-market rates align more closely with the policy rate.

2. “Goldilocks” Forecast Revisions

The RBI revised FY26 GDP growth upward to 7.3% and lowered the CPI inflation projection to 2.0%.

A “Goldilocks” scenario denotes strong growth with low inflation—neither overheating nor recessionary.

Impact: Improved market sentiment, softer bond yields, higher equity valuations, and better anchoring of expectations.

About the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

Nature: Six-member statutory body (established in 2016 via amendment to the RBI Act, 1934).
Mandate: Maintain price stability while supporting growth.
Inflation Target: CPI at 4% ± 2% under the inflation-targeting framework.
Composition: RBI Governor (Chair), one Deputy Governor, one RBI official, and three Government-appointed external members (four-year terms).
Process: Decisions by majority vote; Governor has a casting vote; minimum four meetings annually.
Legal Basis: Section 45ZB; decisions binding on the RBI.

Supplementary Liquidity Measures by the RBI

1. Open Market Operations (OMO)

Action: Purchase of government securities worth ₹1 lakh crore.
Objective: Inject durable liquidity and stabilise bond yields across maturities.
Impact: Higher system liquidity, stable call-money rates, and rising bond prices.

2. USD/INR Forex Buy–Sell Swap ($5 billion, 3-year maturity)

Mechanism: RBI buys dollars now (injecting rupees) and sells them back later.
Objective: Boost rupee liquidity while moderating forex volatility.
Significance: Adjusts liquidity without permanently expanding the RBI’s balance sheet (unlike OMO).
Impact: Improved banking liquidity, predictable hedging costs, and balanced dollar supply.

Overall Significance

Together, the rate cut, optimistic macro forecasts, OMOs, and forex swaps signal a calibrated easing—supporting growth, anchoring inflation expectations, and preserving financial stability. This multi-instrument approach strengthens confidence in India’s macroeconomic resilience.

Finland to Host Circular Economy Roadshows in India

Context: Finland will organise Circular Economy Roadshows across major Indian cities as part of deepening India–Finland cooperation on sustainability. The initiative comes ahead of India hosting the World Circular Economy Forum (WCEF) in October 2026, positioning the country as a global hub for circular transition dialogue and solutions.

About Circular Economy

The circular economy is an economic model that aims to design out waste, extend product lifespans, and close material loops by promoting reuse, repair, remanufacturing, and recycling. Unlike the linear “take–make–dispose” model, it focuses on keeping materials and products in use for as long as possible.

Key drivers of a circular economy include eco-design and product innovation, advances in material recovery and recycling technologies, and producer-responsibility frameworks such as Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), which shift waste management accountability to manufacturers.

According to the United Nations Development Programme, a global transition to a circular economy could unlock $4.5 trillion in economic value by 2030, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and pressure on natural resources.

India’s Circular Economy Potential

India’s circular economy potential is estimated at $2 trillion and 10 million jobs by 2050, reflecting the country’s large material base, growing markets, and demographic advantage. At present, India’s circular efforts are largely concentrated on waste management and recycling, especially in plastics, e-waste, and construction debris.

To move up the value chain, India has identified several priority sectors for circular transition:

Textiles (fibre recycling, sustainable fashion)
Electronics (e-waste recovery, critical minerals)
Construction (reuse of demolition waste)
Mobility (vehicle life extension, shared mobility)
Packaging (plastics and paper alternatives)
Clean energy value chains, including batteries and critical materials

The Finnish roadshows aim to share global best practices, scalable technologies, and policy insights that can help India shift from recycling-centric models to design-led circular systems.

About the World Circular Economy Forum (WCEF)

The World Circular Economy Forum is a global annual conference launched in 2017 by SITRA, Finland’s innovation fund. It brings together governments, businesses, researchers, and civil society to showcase circular economy solutions, policy frameworks, and industrial models.

WCEF serves as a platform for high-level discussions, cross-sector collaboration, and international partnerships. India hosting WCEF 2026 highlights its growing role in shaping global sustainability and resource-efficiency agendas.

Significance

The Finland-led roadshows will help build capacity, foster industry partnerships, and align Indian policies with global circular economy standards, supporting sustainable growth and climate goals.

Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) Rules: Safety vs Capacity in Indian Aviation

Context: As reported by The Indian Express, India’s largest airline IndiGo has witnessed large-scale flight delays and cancellations following the rollout of revised Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) Rules, primarily due to crew shortages. The episode highlights the operational challenges arising from stricter safety-centric aviation norms.

What are Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL)?

FDTL rules are mandatory aviation safety standards that regulate the maximum flight time, duty periods, and minimum rest requirements for pilots and cabin crew. Their core objective is to prevent fatigue-induced human error, a critical risk factor in aviation safety.

In India, FDTL rules are issued by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) as Civil Aviation Requirements under the Bharatiya Vayuyan Adhiniyam, 2024 and the Aircraft Rules, 1937.

Implementation Timeline

Issued: January 2024
Phased Implementation: From July 2025
Full Enforcement: 1 November 2025

Key Provisions of the Revised FDTL Rules

1. Flight Time and Rest Limits

Weekly Rest: Increased to 48 continuous hours, including two full nights at home base.
Cumulative Limits:
- 8 hours per day
- 35 hours per week
- 100 hours in 28 days
- 1,000 hours per year
Mandatory Daily Rest: Minimum 10 hours in any 24-hour period.

2. Duty Extensions and Fatigue Management

Overtime Rest: Additional rest equal to twice the extended duty duration.
Split Duty: Breaks of 3–10 hours can extend duty by only half the break duration.
FRMS: Mandatory adoption of Fatigue Risk Management Systems to enable scientific, fatigue-based rostering.

3. Night Operation Restrictions

Window of Circadian Low (WOCL): Extended to 00:00–06:00 hours.
Night Duties: Maximum two consecutive night duties.
Night Landings: Limited to two per week.
Night Limits:
- Night flight time: ≤ 8 hours
- Night duty time: ≤ 10 hours

Why Were Stricter Rules Introduced?

Pilot Fatalities: On-duty pilot deaths in Nagpur (2023) and Delhi (2024) exposed extreme cumulative fatigue.
Global Evidence: ICAO studies indicate 15–20% of fatal aviation accidents involve crew fatigue.
Circadian Science: Reduced alertness between 02:00–06:00 hours necessitated tighter night controls.
International Alignment: India’s earlier 125-hour monthly limit risked global safety downgrades.
Roster Misuse: DGCA audits revealed airlines treating maximum limits as routine scheduling norms.

Impact Assessment

Positive Outcomes

Reduced fatigue-related operational errors.
Alignment with FAA and EASA global safety benchmarks.
Improved pilot recovery through stricter night-duty limits.
Shift from compliance-based to risk-based fatigue management.

Operational Challenges

Crew shortages leading to cancellations and delays.
Airline operating costs rising by 20–30% due to training and staffing needs.
Higher ticket prices for passengers.
Reduced scheduling buffers increasing disruption sensitivity.

Conclusion

The revised FDTL rules represent a decisive shift towards safety-first aviation governance. While short-term disruptions are evident, the long-term gains in human safety, global credibility, and sustainable aviation growth outweigh transitional operational costs.

National Strategy for Financial Inclusion (NSFI) 2025–2030

Context: The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion (NSFI) 2025–2030, outlining India’s roadmap to deepen equitable access to formal financial services over the next five years. The strategy is designed amid rising digitalisation, new financial technologies, and the need to strengthen inclusion for women, low-income groups, and rural communities.

About NSFI 2025–2030

NSFI is a comprehensive national plan to expand financial access, usage, and resilience across India.
It is built around five strategic pillars, collectively called Panch-Jyoti (Five Lights).
The strategy has been formulated by the Technical Group on Financial Inclusion and Financial Literacy (TGFIFL) in collaboration with banks, ministries, regulators, and financial institutions.
The goal is to achieve a robust, inclusive, and technology-enabled financial ecosystem supporting national priorities.

Panch-Jyoti: The Five Pillars of NSFI

Equitable Financial Services – universal access to banking, credit, insurance, payments, and grievance redressal.
Women-Led Inclusion – gender-intentional financial services, higher female BCs, and women’s asset ownership.
Finance–Livelihood Integration – linking credit, insurance, and financial tools with livelihood programmes.
Financial Education – strengthening digital and financial literacy, especially for rural and vulnerable groups.
Customer Protection – safe, transparent services backed by strong regulatory mechanisms.

Key Focus Areas of NSFI 2025–2030

1. Last-Mile Banking Delivery

Every revenue centre must have at least one functional banking outlet—a branch, Digital Banking Unit, or fixed-point Business Correspondent (BC).
Enhances coverage in remote, tribal, and underserved areas.

2. Strengthening the Business Correspondent Ecosystem

Ensure fair remuneration and structured incentives for BCs.
Use BCs to distribute insurance, pensions, mutual funds, and other social security schemes.
A medium-term aim: 30% women BCs for improved community trust and outreach.

3. Digital Innovation & CBDC Integration

Explore programmable CBDC for targeted government benefits and credit flows.
Expand offline CBDC pilots to low-connectivity rural areas to ensure digital inclusion.

4. Social Security Integration

Full integration of banks and insurers on the Jansuraksha portal for seamless enrolment and claims under PMJJBY and PMSBY.
Strengthen portability and reduce delays in claim settlement.

5. Product Innovation for Underserved Users

Promote bundled insurance products combining life, health, accident, and property coverage.
Encourage micro-pension, micro-credit, and micro-insurance models tailored to informal workers.

Significance of NSFI

Enhances India’s progress towards universal financial inclusion, supporting sustainable development goals.
Improves credit flow, digital access, and risk protection for vulnerable groups.
Strengthens confidence in financial systems through better transparency and consumer protection.
Complements ongoing reforms such as UPI expansion, Jan Dhan–JAM architecture, Digital Banking Units, and Financial Literacy Centres.

Two Central Bills to Raise Sin Tax on Tobacco and Pan Masala

The Union Government has proposed two key Bills to redesign the taxation structure on sin goods—primarily tobacco and pan masala. These reforms come as the GST compensation cess regime winds down, requiring new mechanisms to preserve revenue and sustain high taxation on demerit goods.

Context

The Centre will introduce:

The Health Security se National Security Cess Bill
The Central Excise (Amendment) Bill, 2025

Together, they aim to replace the expiring GST compensation cess, ensure tax neutrality, and strengthen funding for public health and national security.

GST Compensation Cess: Background

The GST Compensation Cess, introduced under the GST (Compensation to States) Act, 2017, was designed to compensate states for revenue loss after GST rollout. It assured states a 14% annual revenue growth, funded through a cess on luxury and demerit goods such as tobacco, coal, aerated drinks, and luxury cars.

Initially valid from July 2017 to June 2022, it was later extended to March 2026 to repay loans taken during the pandemic for compensation payments. After the 56th GST Council meeting (Sept 2025), most cess components were absorbed into GST slabs—but tobacco products remained an exception until loan repayment is complete.

1. Health Security se National Security Cess

This new cess replaces the earlier compensation cess on selected sin goods while maintaining overall tax levels.

Key Features

Objective: To generate funds for public health programmes and national security expenditure.
Tax Base: Calculated on production capacity of manufacturing machines, not on actual output.
Initial Coverage: Pan masala, with scope to expand to other notified demerit goods.
Revenue Destination: Deposited in the Consolidated Fund of India, with no revenue-sharing with states.
Policy Goal: Maintain tax neutrality and strengthen fiscal support for health and security.

2. Central Excise (Amendment) Bill, 2025

This Bill seeks to permanently restore excise duty on tobacco products once the GST compensation cess ends.

Key Features

Coverage: Cigarettes, cigars, cheroots, hookah tobacco, chewing tobacco, zarda, scented tobacco, and pipe mixtures.
Fiscal Role: Maintains the high tax burden on tobacco, one of India’s major public health risks.
Autonomy: Allows the Union Government to revise excise rates without GST Council approval.
GST Regime: Tobacco products are expected to fall under the 40% GST slab, with excise duty bridging the gap to preserve total taxation levels.

Comparative Snapshot

Feature	Health Security se National Security Cess	Central Excise (Amendment) Bill	GST Compensation Cess
Nature	New cess on sin goods	Permanent excise duty	Additional cess under GST Act
Purpose	Fund health + national security	Maintain tobacco tax burden	Compensate states
Tax Base	Machine capacity	Specific excise	Consumption of demerit goods
Goods	Pan masala; expandable	All tobacco types	Luxury & sin goods
Revenue	Consolidated Fund of India	Consolidated Fund of India	State Compensation Fund
Timeframe	New, permanent	Permanent	2017–2026
State Role	No sharing	No GST Council approval needed	Direct compensation

Agriculture and Carbon Markets

Context: Agricultural carbon projects in India are increasingly being promoted to unlock new income opportunities for farmers while contributing to climate mitigation. However, concerns related to measurement accuracy, credibility of carbon credits, and benefit-sharing remain major constraints limiting wider participation.

What are Carbon Markets?

Carbon markets allow the buying and selling of carbon credits generated through emission-reduction or carbon-sequestration activities. They incentivise individuals, industries, and farmers to adopt low-carbon practices.

Significance of Carbon Markets in Agriculture

Income Diversification
Climate-friendly practices—such as reduced tillage, agroforestry, and methane-reducing livestock solutions—enable farmers to earn carbon credits. India’s voluntary carbon credit potential is projected at US$20–40 billion by 2030.
Climate Mitigation
Agriculture contributes significantly to methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Improved soil practices boost soil organic carbon, supporting India’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Global Market Presence
India registered over 240 agri-food carbon projects under international standards by 2024, strengthening its role in the global voluntary carbon market.

IMF Rating on India’s GDP Data

Context: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has graded India’s national accounts and GDP statistics with a ‘C’ rating in its Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). This is the second-lowest rating, raising scrutiny over the credibility and consistency of India’s economic data.

What is IMF’s DQAF?

The IMF evaluates country statistical systems based on:

Methodological soundness
Accuracy and reliability
Serviceability
Accessibility
Transparency

Countries are graded from A to D, where A indicates internationally high-quality systems and D signifies serious concerns. India’s C rating implies data quality concerns but also ongoing reform efforts.

Why the Rating Matters

Global Credibility: Investors and sovereign agencies use IMF-validated data to assess market confidence and capital flows.
Policy Accuracy: Faulty data risks misjudgment in welfare targeting, inflation estimation, and fiscal planning.
Growth Narrative: India’s high-growth claim requires data integrity to maintain international trust.

A robust statistical framework is vital for India’s ambition to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Key Issues in India’s National Accounts

Enterprise Database Limitations
Reliance on MCA-21 corporate filings is problematic due to incomplete or delayed reporting. Only around 65% of registered companies regularly submit comprehensive financial data.
Informal Sector Under-Representation
Despite contributing over 45% of Gross Value Added (GVA), estimates are based on outdated ratios rather than real-time surveys, leading to under-capture of economic activity.
Survey and Data Release Gaps
Delay and discontinuity in major surveys — such as the non-release of the 2017–18 Consumer Expenditure Survey — weakens consumption and employment estimates.
Outdated Base Year
The base year of 2011–12 does not account for digitisation, platform-based services, and post-pandemic structural shifts — causing inaccuracies in GDP deflators.

Government Efforts and Reforms (Ongoing)

Greater use of administrative and GST datasets to improve data coverage
Expansion of Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) and Household Consumption Surveys
Work initiated to shift the base year to a more recent period

These reforms are expected to enhance transparency and policy credibility.

Way Forward

Survey Modernisation: Adoption of digital data systems and continuous field tracking to capture real-time economic activities.
Integrated Data Ecosystem: Linking of tax, corporate and labour databases for comprehensive economic mapping.
Statistical Professionalism: Strengthening institutional autonomy of the National Statistical Commission.
Alignment to Global Standards: Adopting UN-SNA 2008 norms for updated national accounts methodology.

Conclusion

India’s economy is witnessing strong growth momentum, but the quality of underlying data must match its aspirations. Strengthening statistical credibility is essential for effective policymaking, investor confidence, and safeguarding India’s economic reputation in global forums.