China’s geopolitical approach towards India
- China has managed to develop a long-term geo-economic relationship with India’s direct rival — Pakistan through CPEC.
- Pakistan is crucial to China’s maritime calculations of having a direct access to the Indian Ocean and bypass the Malacca dilemma.
- China-Pakistan ties have created a significant geopolitical imbalance in Indo-Pacific region, which is detrimental to India’s interests.
- China endorses India’s objective of taking a leadership role in shaping global affairs towards ‘reformed multilateralism.’
- However, India’s rapprochement with US in Indo-Pacific region and finalisation of foundational defence agreements detrimental to Chinese geopolitical interests.
- India has voluntarily pulled out of negotiations on a deal with China’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China’s expectations that Indian economy would become steadily integrated into the industrial and supply chain networks in Asia with China at the center have become too unrealistic.
India’s geopolitical approach towards China
- For India, outcome of rivalry between US and China will be decisive for its path towards becoming an established power in the Indo-Pacific region. If China emerges as the winner of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and manages to establish itself as a second global center of power, this systemic process will have a negative impact on India’s geopolitical interests and goal.
- It is in India’s interest to build strong ties with as many regional actors as possible in Asia (Like Japan, Australia etc.). Beyond that, India seeks to strengthen security and defence ties with various countries close to the US, particularly in the maritime domain.
- India is wary of encirclement in the Indian Ocean because of China’s String of pearls approach.
- To counterbalance the growing Chinese presence in the IOR and its direct neighbourhood, India is expanding its network of regional and bilateral partnerships through various security and defence.
- As a ‘middle power’ positioned between US and China with ambitious regional power projection capabilities, its main goal is to establish strategic autonomy in its relations with other key players such as the US, Russia, Japan, and Australia, while carefully navigating complex relationships with China and Pakistan.
- India’s approach aims to partially replace China by cutting domestic economic dependencies, while simultaneously attracting foreign investors who similarly seek to diversify supply chains, production processes, and trade ties away from China.
Divergent engagement
- India has actively participated in China-led organisational formats such as BRICS, AIIB and SCO, it has refrained from participating in trade blocs such as RCEP due to geo-economic considerations
- Regional and international organisations are likely to become another playground for India and China to seek relative advantages. Ex – UNSC – stand on Afghanistan and Russia.
- From a geopolitical point of view, the new great game will be situated in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean due to rising competition between the two Asian giants, in addition to the systemic rivalry between China and the US.
Way forward
Close relationship between China and Pakistan, and coordination between China and Russia (witnessed in context of Ukraine war), are key examples of fluid regional formations that will have a major impact on India. Given that China and India will be the two major powers of the Indo-Pacific region, their relationship will increasingly be shaped by competition and confrontation in their quest for shaping this common geopolitical space.