Context: The Ministry of Earth Sciences launched 'Bharat Forecast System'- the world's highest-resolution numerical weather model with a 6-kilometre grid. It will significantly enhance Indian Meteorological Department’s weather forecasting capabilities, especially with respect to extreme rainfall and cyclones.
Relevance of the Topic: Prelims: Key facts related to Bharat Forecast System.
Bharat Forecast System
- Bharat Forecast System (BFS) is India’s first indigenously built weather model.
- Developed by: Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
- Spatial resolution: It offers a spatial resolution of 6km x 6 km, making it the world’s first weather model with such high resolution. Weather modellers have been working to fine-tune this resolution to 3km and 1km.
- Current models like- Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) and Global Forecasting System (GFS) operate at lower resolution of 12 km x 12 km, missing out smaller, localised variations in weather patterns. They are unable to pick weather events occurring over smaller areas within this 144 sq km area unit.
- BFS reduces this area to 36 sq km, allowing more granular and precise forecasts.
- BFS uses supercomputer Arka (with a capacity of 11.77 petaflops and storage capacity of 33 petabytes).
- Data from a network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars from across the country will be used to run the BFS model. Gradually, the number of Doppler radars will increase to 100 which would allow the weather office to issue nowcasts- weather forecasts for the next two hours across the country.
Significance
- Improved spatial resolution will enable accurate forecasts for small-scale weather patterns, extreme rainfall, cyclones and disaster management.
- It will also help agriculture and water resource management.
- BFS is a deterministic model, i.e., it gives one clear and specific weather forecast based on the current data, rather than multiple possible forecasts.
BFS had been under experimental testing since 2022, and the data generated from it helped improve the accuracy of weather forecasts by 30-64%, depending on the event.
This development represents a leap in India’s weather forecasting technology with potential impact on disaster preparedness and climate resilience.



