Context: The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched a major offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and Bahri. Thus, the war which was quiet for a few months has gained momentum again.
Who are involved in the war and situation thereof
- It started as a power rivalry between the military heads of the SAF and the RSF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Hamdan Dagalo respectively.
- The Conflict which started in capital city of Khartoum has spread to Omdurman, Bahri, Port Sudan, El Fasher and the Port Sudan cities, as well as the Darfur and Kordofan states.
- In August, the UN declared famine in the Zamzam camp in North Darfur which hosts nearly 5,00,000 IDPs.
- The UN- Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee says that 14 regions in the Greater Darfur, South and North Kordofan, and Jazeera states face conditions similar to Zamzam.
- According to the latest UN-backed IPC initiative, 25.6 million people, more than half of Sudan’s population, face “crisis or worse” levels of food insecurity.
Why war still continues?
- Firstly, both warring parties are adamant about gaining ground and legitimising their power. The SAF claims to be the legitimate government, with the UN just about recognising their claims, although it came to power through a coup in 2021.
- The RSF, a former Arab militia known as Janjaweed, seeks alliances from several Arab countries to support its claim to power.
- Secondly, Sudan has been under the UN arms embargo, since the 2004 Darfur crisis, which has recently been extended for another year. However, the embargo has not blocked the flow of weapons.
- Thirdly, the war has become complex with the involvement of multiple actors and issues.
- It began as a military rivalry has now evolved through ethnic lines, involving several regional ethnic militias. Arab and non-Arab militias have taken sides with the RSF and the SAF respectively.
- Fourthly, the SAF has accused the UAE and previously Russia’s Wagner Group of supporting the RSF. Although the Wagner group and the RSF have rejected any direct military engagement.
Status of peace measures
- Nine rounds of U.S.-Saudi ceasefire efforts failed; recent talks saw no attendance. Mistrust persists, limiting negotiation progress, while media attention and access to conflict zones remain restricted.
Regional implications
- Over 2 million people have sought refuge in neighboring countries (Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia).
- Overflowing refugee camps raise concerns in Europe about migration attempts.
- Increased ethnic clashes along borders (South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea).
- Violence in Abyei region and clashes in El Fashaga reported.
- War jeopardizes South Sudan's oil pipeline to the Red Sea.
There is an increasing fear that the military rivals will divide the country, leading to a plight similar to that of Libya’s. Sudanese people have started to live with the war, and with much attention given to Gaza and Ukraine, the war in Sudan will continue to rage on the sidelines.