The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war has not only witnessed expansion of NATO but also has led to restrengthening of Trans-Atlantic unity and resurrection of Western unity under American leadership, which previously has been fading. This resurrection has broader geo-political implications with demands for further expansion of NATO and NATO Plus (i.e., progressing towards Asian continent).
However, this restrengthening will have both positive and negative impact on India.
- Containing China: The resurgence of ties goes against the unilateral architectural designs of irredentist countries like China, which has contested claims with India thus will be beneficial for India at last.
- Security and Stability: It contributes to regional and global security which will inevitably benefit India and conflict beyond Europe
- New Minilateral: The finalisation of India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor is a testimony of close geo-economic and geo-political alignment (PGII vis-à-vis BRI) that has been made possible as a result of new found bonhomie.
- Reaching out Iran: The US-Europe bonhomie will lighten the US sanctions on Iran (as standalone efforts to normalise relations taken by European countries) and ultimately will have beneficial impact on India and its initiatives with Iran (Chabahar Port) and further the progress on regional INSCTC corridor.
- Economic Stability: The resurgence has led to relative economic stability both at regional at global levels (oil prices stabilisation) and thus beneficial for India’s trade and investment opportunities.
- Russia-China axis: Close collaboration between US and Europe has bought the two countries facing isolation closer and ultimately materialisation of Alliance of autocracies.
- India-Russia ties: As India aligns closely with US and West, its already strained and unidimensional relations with Russia.
- Quint Grouping: There has been demands led by Iran, Turkey, Russia etc against the unilateral dictation by US of global affairs.
- India-China ties: India’s close alliance with US and the absence of formal meeting mechanism (post Galwan clash) is further likely to increase tension between the two neighbours.
- Strategic Autonomy and Multilateral Diplomacy: India’s alignment with the best will be detrimental for its strategic autonomy and its multipolar vision.
Thus, India should realise that it is still in the state-building stage (middle-power) and should manage external turbulences, leverage rival power centres and derive benefits for itself.